Welcome to this investigative fantasy baseball piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.
As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. We've hit the two-month mark and are officially approaching the deep end of the 2017 season.
Identifying top power risers and fallers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. We'll do the hard work for you, looking at the underlying metrics that influence a hitter's power: fly-ball, pull, hard-hit rates and exit velocity. Consider buying these week 9 power risers and selling these week 9 power fallers.
Shin-soo Choo - (OF, TEX):
Choo has beaten out his 2016 pace by a hair, tying his seven homers from last season with 14 fewer plate appearances (and holding nine more RBI with an average that sits 16 points higher!) These things aren’t much and he certainly doesn’t have the same clout that these other names do, but merely discussing buzzy players gets tiresome and doesn’t typically provide much of an edge. Meanwhile, Choo has hit safely in seven of his last eight games and gone yard in three of his last five.
May saw him up his hard-hit rate by nine percent alongside a 15-percent jump in his pull rate, though the fly-ball rate actually dropped by three percent to a mere 25.7 percent. This man has topped 20 homers four times in his career -- as recently as 2015 -- and is “only” 34 years old. Mix in a potential for 10 steals and you’ve got a sneaky 80/20/80/10/.260 bat that’s available in 86 percent of Yahoo leagues.
Albert Pujols - (1B, LAA):
Pujols has ramped things up in his pursuit of career homer No. 600, as he’s homered in three of his last seven games alongside an eight-game hitting streak. He’s hit .333 (14-for-42) with the three homers and 11 RBI over his last 11 games. In that little timeframe he’s pulled the ball a whopping 60 percent of the time alongside a 50 percent hard-hit rate and 44 percent fly-ball rate. So, yeah, he might just be selling out a bit. Considering his overall 90.3 percent zone-contact rate is still well above board then we can’t really complain. Go get history, buddy!
Steven Souza Jr. - (OF, TB):
Souza’s overall 10 homers and career-high .231 ISO through 216 plate appearances are lovely sights, but one has to wonder at the stopping power of his 25 percent HR/FB rate. While it’s true that the 28-year-old has been much more selective at the dish in 2017, his actual batted-ball rates are a teensy step behind his 2016 marks. It’s not much, but it really doesn’t justify a 6.5 percent bump in HR/FB rate either.
That said, he brought his fly-ball rate up six percent and his pull rate up five percent in May, while turning 3.3 percent of his April soft-contact rate into medium contact. These are largely incremental gains, but they speak to his ISO improving to .250 in May after checking in at .213 in April. Of course, he hit just .216 against April’s wild .330 mark, but we’re just discussing power here. With 15 of his 29 batted balls since May 16 checking in at 100-plus mph, we’re going to say his pop is doing okay.
Hunter Renfroe - (OF, SD):
While Renfroe’s overall 87.9 mph average exit velocity isn’t going to dazzle anyone, he has improved things by hitting at least one ball at 99 mph or greater in each game from May 14-27. That said, his highest exit velo in three games since has been 95.2 mph, which actually left the yard for a grand slam.
No one’s going to nitpick three games, especially with a homer in one of them, but it’s worth noting that his streak was ruined all the same. While San Diego’s lineup isn’t producing much around him (which will touch on more intimately in a bit), Renfroe himself should vie for 25-plus homers in 2017. It’d be nice if we could get 2016’s elite contact rates, but that appears highly unlikely.
Jonathan Villar - (2B/3B/SS, MIL):
Villar hasn’t homered since May 14, nor plated a run or swiped a bag since May 23. His overall line of five homers, 26 runs scored, 24 RBI and 12 steals will still amount to being startable in 12-team leagues, but his .211/.283/.322 slash line is just so gross. On the one hand, he’s striking out nearly one-third of the time. On the other hand, he’s also driving the ball into the ground as if a gopher stole his Lucky Charms.
While his 55.6 percent ground-ball rate last season worked for him, that mark going up to 64.1 percent in 2017 puts more pressure on each fly ball to leave the yard in order for him to retain value. Well, since May 15 he’s been pounding the ball into the ground at a 79.3 percent rate. Throw in a 40-percent soft contact rate over that span and you’ve got your answers as to whether he’s been getting unlucky or has just been stinking. Hint: he’s stinking. He has the pedigree to turn it around, but this is a terrible look.
Wil Myers - (1B/OF, SD):
At the end of May 16, Myers was triple slashing .293/.330/.579 with 11 homers and four steals through his first 176 plate appearances of 2017. Since then, he’s been a bum. In those 13 games (54 PAs), he’s gone just 8-for-47 (.170) with zero homers, three RBI and 20 strikeouts. His .296 BABIP over that span isn’t ungodly, but that .021 ISO is just generating nothing.
To be fair, he did muscle up for a 387-foot out by hitting a ball 101 mph with a 25.6 degree launch angle. Oh, and on May 31 he got robbed at the wall on a 97.5 mph shot to dead center. Overall, he’s 1-for-7 with a single on balls hit more than 310 feet since May 16. So, yeah. There’s some poor luck at play here, but he’s lacking that extra oomph that led to so many homers in the early going. At least he appears to be knocking on the door, sort of.
Jay Bruce - (1B/OF, NYM):
Bruce went 0-for-4 today (June 1) with two strikeouts, furthering his recent slip into Slump World. Now 11-for-66 (.167) over his last 17 games, the slugger has hit just two homers with nine RBI thanks to a fly-ball rate that’s dropped 10 percent, a pull rate that’s plummeted 11 percent and a hard-hit rate that’s down eight percent.
The trifecta of power-sucking is present and it is the devil. It’d be unfair to not acknowledge that he hit a ball 406 feet for an out on May 17, but by-and-large he had been slogging through much of May. His paltry 9.5 percent HR/FB rate over this most recent stretch has been largely earned by way of lesser hitting, but he’s also no strangers to streaks. Bench him for now and hope the turnaround comes soon.
Jed Lowrie - (2B, OAK):
Lowrie has definitely outperformed expectations in 2017 with his .292/.360/.469 slash line and 32 runs scored in just 51 games. His .177 ISO is great to see after it crashed to .059 across 369 rather useless PAs last season. To be fair here, all three of these power metrics are down just 3-5 percent over the past two weeks so it isn’t a crisis or anything. But it’s worth noting for those who may be looking to him for some AL-only relief, especially with how hot Chad Pinder’s been. I think Lowrie will be a fine play for as long as his health holds up if he can hold onto his hitting third in this powerful lineup.