Mubarak-Style Government Without Mubarak

Several days after the resignation of former Mubarak, an important question remains. Has the military been part of the political games and failed to really hear the array of voices that have occupied Egypt's streets for nearly three weeks?
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Award wining multimedia storyteller and Meedan producer Simba Russeau writes from Cairo

Several days after the historic resignation of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, an important question still remains. Has the military been part of the political games and failed to really hear the array of voices that have occupied Egypt's streets for nearly three weeks?

Confusion was in the air Thursday amid rumors on the streets that senior National Democratic Party (NDP) officials, including Hossam Badrawy and newly appointed Prime Minister Ahmed Shafiq, that during his address to the nation Thursday night Mubarak would announce his resignation.

Ashraflink tweets: "Thank God for showing me one day that a young man like Tamer Hosni would fall and the Wael Ghonim would rise up and become a role model for young people #Egypt #Jan 25 # 25 Jan #Tahrir"

ashraflink الحمد لله الذي أراني يوما يسقط فيه شاب كتامر حسني، ويصعد شاب كوائل غنيم ويصبح قدوة للشباب #Egypt #Jan25 #25Jan #Tahrir

Lastoadri tweeted: "Each one bring with him a jar ready. As soon as he (Mubarak) says "departure" throw them in the street: D #Jan 25"

Lastoadri : كل واحد يحضر له قلة جاهزة.. أول ما يقول رحيل، ارموهم في الشارع :D #Jan25

Thousands of pro-democracy demonstrators poured into Tahrir Square with optimism and hope that one of their main demands would be met. Twitter was also going crazy with many voicing support, but as the hours dragged on, a new hashtag was created for sarcastic humor as to why Mubarak was so late with his speech.

@KABOBfest: You think it's easy packing gold bullion bars into vintage Louis Vuitton luggage? #ReasonsMubarakIsLate

So I guess the real #reasonsMubarakislate : He was packing his bags! #Egypt

@KayTeaC: #reasonsmubarakislate He's in de-Nile.

Finally, after a long wait, Mubarak addressed the nation. Hope, that once filled the air in Tahrir, quickly turned to anger and people started chanting, "Down with the regime." Others urged the crowds to calm down and allow the speech to reach its end, but when it did, the response was a sea of shoes in the air followed by anger and frustration.

"I was sitting in front of the television at the time of Mubarak's speech and most of my family's reactions after was one of no comment," says Ghaydaa. "Mubarak has no relationship with the people and he just doesn't get it. I think he lives in a different reality."

Saber90 tweets: "Breaking news: 80 million Egyptians die of a stroke shortly after the Egyptian president's speech # 25jan #tahrir"

saber90: عاجل : وفاة 80 مليون مصري بجلطة في المخ اثر خطاب الرئيس المصري

On Friday, pro-democracy demonstrators started organizing peaceful sit-ins near the state television station and the presidential palace despite a heavy military presence. Early in the day the military issued a statement that they would make an important announcement soon.

Speaking to some of the demonstrators one soldier said, "your demands will be realized today."

As the sun began to set, we could hear people banging on whatever materials they could find in their vicinity and sounds of cars honking in jubilation. Egyptian flags could be seen waving from every car as if Egypt had won the World Cup.

In fact, it was news that Mubarak's 30-year authoritarian rule had come to end.

18 days of police brutality, massive nationwide demonstrations and countless political speeches led to this night where every Egyptian street celebrated following news that power had been handed over to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.

"We have a lot of worries in knowing that the army is taking over and for now it's a way out but we're hoping that in several months a democratic transition will take place," says Jihan:

I hope that the army understands that a civil government rather than a military government is what the people want. President Mubarak was a military commander and he ran the country based on security concerns rather than looking at some of the core issues Egyptians face. I am excited at the news that Mubarak will step down but I'm concerned about having the same regime take over.

Is the regime really gone, or just the dictator?

Leading Arabic News satellite channel and online site Al Jazeera reports that analysts say the army, which is Egypt's most powerful institutions has too much at stake.

Michael Hanna, an expert on Egypt at the Century Foundation in New York, says:

"If this situation continues or becomes more serious, the army will have to carry out a coup and impose strict measures to keep the regime in power." The army has stayed out of the limelight for years, but remains the most powerful institution in Egypt. In recent years, it has become involved in business and the economy, and has strengthened its grip on huge contracts in the building sector, in road construction and in food production. It has become the norm for retired Egyptian generals to take up posts in government, or to be appointed regional governors or mayors.

ويقول خبير الشؤون المصرية بمؤسسة القرن في نيويورك مايكل حنا "إذا استمر هذا الوضع أو تنامى، فسيكون على الجيش القيام بانقلاب وإعطاء أوامر بفرض إجراءات صارمة لبسط النظام". ونأى الجيش بنفسه لسنوات عن الأضواء، لكنه يبقى مع ذلك أقوى مؤسسة مصرية، وقد دخل السنوات الأخيرة مجال الأعمال والاقتصاد، فعزز قبضته على العقود الضخمة في قطاعات البناء وشق الطرق وإنتاج الأغذية. وجرت العادة أن يشغل الجنرالات المصريون بعد تقاعدهم مناصب حكومية، أو يعينون حكام محافظات أو رؤساء بلديات.

I fear that a bluff in the military's checkmate strategy could have set up Egypt's youthful uprising. After all, former military leaders have too much at stake to just deliver the kind of democracy that so many Egyptians fought and died for.

Perhaps, as the euphoric feeling wears off, anti-regime demonstrators will analyze accusations by human rights activists that the military was in fact, behind the scenes, involved in the kidnappings and torture of the uprising's martyrs, which this Guardian post points out:

One of those detained by the army was a 23-year-old man who would only give his first name, Ashraf, for fear of again being arrested. He was detained last Friday on the edge of Tahrir Square carrying a box of medical supplies intended for one of the makeshift clinics treating protesters attacked by pro-Mubarak forces...

"They put me in a room. An officer came and asked me who was paying me to be against the government. When I said I wanted a better government he hit me across the head and I fell to the floor. Then soldiers started kicking me. One of them kept kicking me between my legs," he said. "They got a bayonet and threatened to rape me with it. Then they waved it between my legs. They said I could die there or I could disappear into prison and no one would ever know. The torture was painful but the idea of disappearing in a military prison was really frightening."

"Everyone needs to understand what exactly the current regime is doing. They are officially handing over the powers of the government to the military. Before if you were arrested or accused of a crime you would be sent to the police now you will be handed over to the military to resolve matters," says Mustafa.

"Mubarak is out of the picture from a power perspective. In actually they don't need the president to make decisions. They have positioned themselves to take full control of running the country."

For more translations on the January 25 uprising in Egypt, see news.Meedan.net

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