Nancy Pelosi, Paul Ryan Get Mixed Marks From Their Parties

And more of the latest polling news.
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) listens to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) during the opening session of the
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) listens to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) during the opening session of the new Congress on Capitol Hill, Jan. 3, 2017.

Republicans and Democrats both are split on whether they’d like to see their parties get new leadership in the House of Representatives, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov poll.

Some Democratic lawmakers had called for Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to be ousted after the party fell short in special elections for congressional seats in Georgia and South Carolina. The GOP cast Pelosi as a central antagonist in the race to represent Georgia’s Sixth District, releasing a slew of negative ads tying her to the Democratic candidate, Jon Ossoff.

Rank-and-file Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are nearly evenly divided on whether they’d like to see Pelosi stay in her position, with many expressing no opinion. Twenty-seven percent want her to remain, while 29 percent would prefer to see someone else. The remaining 44 percent aren’t sure, or say they don’t care.

Views show relatively little variance along ideological lines, with self-described liberal Democrats and self-described moderate Democrats about evenly split.

Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, meanwhile, lean slightly against House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) ― 28 percent want him to stay as the GOP leader in the House, while 34 percent would prefer someone else. Another 38 percent aren’t sure or don’t care.

Neither Pelosi nor Ryan is popular with the public as a whole, according to the survey. Just 24 percent of Americans polled view Pelosi favorably, with 44 percent viewing her unfavorably. Ryan attracts slightly higher negatives, with 25 percent viewing him favorably, and 50 percent unfavorably.

As of mid-June, Pelosi’s average favorability rating in all public surveys was about 29 percent, and Ryan’s about 30 percent.

Use the widget below to further explore the results of the HuffPost/YouGov survey, using the menu at the top to select survey questions and the buttons at the bottom to filter the data by subgroups:


STATE SURVEYS FIND LITTLE SUPPORT FOR GOP HEALTH BILL ― The House GOP bill to repeal President Obama’s Affordable Care Act is deeply unpopular in a number of battleground states, according to a set of new surveys released by the American Medical Association, which opposes the proposal. Fewer than 26 percent of voters in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia think the House bill, known as the American Health Care Act, is a good idea, according to the polls. The West Virginia survey was conducted by the Republican firm Voter/Consumer Research, and polling in the remaining states was conducted by the Republican firm Public Opinion Strategies.

While issue polling sponsored by an interested party should always be taken with a grain of salt, the results echo previous research modeling statewide support for the bill, which suggested that support for the GOP legislation fell below 40 percent in every state.  

U.S. INTERNATIONAL IMAGE DECLINES ― Richard Wike, Bruce Stokes, Jacob Poushter and Janell Fetterolf: “Although he has only been in office a few months, Donald Trump’s presidency has had a major impact on how the world sees the United States. Trump and many of his key policies are broadly unpopular around the globe, and ratings for the U.S. have declined steeply in many nations. According to a new Pew Research Center survey spanning 37 nations, a median of just 22% has confidence in Trump to do the right thing when it comes to international affairs. This stands in contrast to the final years of Barack Obama’s presidency, when a median of 64% expressed confidence in Trump’s predecessor to direct America’s role in the world. The sharp decline in how much global publics trust the U.S. president on the world stage is especially pronounced among some of America’s closest allies in Europe and Asia, as well as neighboring Mexico and Canada. Across the 37 nations polled, Trump gets higher marks than Obama in only two countries: Russia and Israel.” [Pew Global]

AMERICANS TRUST DEMOCRATS ON ENVIRONMENT, GOP ON NATIONAL DEFENSE ― RJ Reinhart: ”Americans believe the Democratic Party is better at handling the environment, racial discrimination, health care and education. The Republican Party is credited with doing a better job on national defense, federal debt and terrorism. On many other issues, including the economy, foreign trade and taxes, Americans are divided on which party is better at handling them. ... Americans’ attitudes on which party can better handle problems have changed relatively little since the question was last asked, in May 2010. The largest difference ― a five-point increase ― occurred in the percentage of Americans who believe Democrats are better able to handle the environment. ... With the recent release of the Senate’s version of a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA), Democrats ― who control neither Congress nor the presidency ― now have an opportunity to capitalize on Americans’ perceptions that they are better at handling health care policy as they attempt to defeat the GOP legislation and preserve Obamacare.” [Gallup]

DEMOCRATS MAY HAVE AN EARLY EDGE ON MIDTERM ENTHUSIASM ― HuffPost Pollster: “Supporters of the Democratic Party are significantly more likely than backers of the GOP to say they plan on volunteering and donating to candidates in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey. About one-third of Americans who’d prefer to see Democrats control Congress say they’re at least somewhat likely to volunteer for a political party or candidate in next year’s elections, and 37 percent said they’re at least somewhat likely to donate money. Among Americans who’d prefer to see the GOP remain in control, those numbers are 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Those favoring the Democrats are also twice as likely as those favoring the Republicans to say they’re very likely both to donate and to volunteer.” [HuffPost]

‘OUTLIERS’ ― Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:

-Most Republicans no longer oppose gay marriage, according to a new Pew Research survey. [HuffPost]

-Nate Cohn outlines Democrats’ best pickup opportunities for the 2018 midterms. [NYT]

-Erica Chenoweth, Erica MacDonald and Jeremy Pressman estimate that at least 100,000 Americans joined protests in May. [WashPost]

-Cameron Easley and Nick Laughlin look at Democrats’ and Republicans’ views of their parties. [Morning Consult]

-Eric McGhee delves into the causes for low voter turnout in California. [PPIC]

-A Democratic polling memo urges the party to adopt health care as a wedge issue. [Priorities USA]

-Dan Hopkins delves into Americans’ biggest complaints about Obamacare. [538]

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The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted June 22 and June 23 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.

HuffPost has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here.

Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.