The UN issued its mid-year review on civilian deaths this morning. More than 1000 Afghan civilians have been killed so far this year -- 24% more than in the first part of 2008. Two key take-aways from the report:
1) Numbers of those killed by insurgent attacks are way up (59% of casualties). It's not just the number of those killed; the overall number of IEDs and suicide attacks has jumped. Just think about what that does for perceptions of (in)stability in months leading up to Afghanistan's Presidential and provincial elections.
2) While the percentage of civilians killed by ISAF and Afghan forces is down, the number itself is about the same: 308 killed in the first 6 months of 2008; 310 killed in the first 6 months of 2009. This despite the previous ISAF Commanding General's December 2008 "Tactical Directive" that was supposed to significantly reduce civilian losses. Let's hope McChrystal's TD is more effective.
Put these two facts together and you've got the statistical grounding for Afghans' intuitive mistrust of the way things are going. Your average Afghan doesn't have to look at numbers to know that more civilians are dying each month and that neither the Afghan government nor international forces have been able to protect civilians from insurgents.