It is true that we fought a war - a costly and bloody war, establishing that states do NOT have the right to secede from the Union. To assume this ignores the realpolitik of the situation. Calexit can happen. And if the people of California so choose, will happen.
Because while California does not have the right to secede, it is very likely it will be given permission to.
Those who recall only that the Civil War was fought "to prevent states from seceding" do not understand history. Indeed, the reason why we had a civil war, and not a civil Supreme Court case, was summed up quite sufficiently in this quote by Abraham Lincoln:
"Both parties deprecated war; but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive; and the other would accept war rather than let it perish. And the war came .... "
That is not the situation posed by a #Calexit. On the contrary. Unlike Lincoln's time, it is hard to imagine that the Republican Congress, Republican Supreme Court, and dictatorial Executive Branch -- which will now look to consolidate power -- would not salivate at the prospect of a Union without California's fifty five electoral votes.
Without California, there only path to victory for a Democratic candidate is to win the Presidency is for almost every other swing state in the remaining union - if Oregon and Washington leave along with California, there is *no* path for any Democrat to win the Presidency. The United States will effectively become a one-party state. That one party will be headed by Donald Trump — and that is exactly the kind of consolidation of power that he will now seek.
So it is not clear that the federal government would make war rather than let the nation perish.
And while it may be of critical importance to the remaining rational people of the Union that California stay in - it is sad but true to say that the Union needs California far more than California needs the Union. California would be the worlds 8th largest economy in and of itself - furthermore, it is an incredibly *diverse* economy, able to withstand a great deal of change and adjustment. The loss of trade deals (which may actually be negotiated more favorably by a more effective Californian government than the federal one) is offset by the tax revenue that will no longer leave the state, including massive burdens to subsidize a bloated military budget.
Ultimately, it is up to the people of California to decide whether or not to secede. But I think, unlike the much maligned “#Texit”, California has everything to gain and nothing to lose in a #Calexit.
The California Senate President pro Tempore, Kevin de Leon, released this joint statement with the California Assembly Speaker, Antony Rendon this morning:
Today, we woke up feeling like strangers in a foreign land, because yesterday Americans expressed their views on a pluralistic and democratic society that are clearly inconsistent with the values of the people of California.
If Americans and Californians truly have different values, if Californians really are “strangers in a foreign land,” it may be time to sever those ties.
When people talk about Trump’s election being an “existential threat to the Republic”, this is just one of the many scenarios which may come to pass that fulfills a part of that dark prophecy. In a very real sense, the nation has not survived this election; the Republic may not survive Trump's term in office, and we may now lose the Union.
Which might work out for California and Californians. But bad for the rest of us.