A new poll released Monday from Public Policy Polling gives President Barack Obama a three-point lead over Republican challenger Mitt Romney in Colorado, post-Republican National Convention.
This is PPPs first post-convention Colorado poll and although it shows Obama leading Romney 49-46 in the Centennial State, Obama's lead has deteriorated since last month when PPP found he was ahead 49-43.
The Huffington Post's Pollster Estimate currently tracking 18 polls paints a picture of an even closer race in Colorado for the two candidates with Obama at 48.3 and Romney at 46.1:
While Nate Silver's political polling analysis blog FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 61.7 percent chance of winning in Colorado as of Sept. 4 and by November Silver's math forecasts Obama's win percentage to push upwards to a pretty solid 69 percent.
According to PPP, Obama's advantage over Romney comes from independents (48-41), women (52-44), young voters under the age of 45 (53-40) and non-white voters (53-38) -- a trend that PPP says is consistent with data from many other states.
Romney is up with men, white voters and with voters over 45 years old in Colorado, and if Obama can keep the race close with whites and men in the state (49-47, 49-46, respectively and favoring Romney), Obama's prospects of winning Colorado are good. But PPP also states that Colorado is yet another swing state where a plurality of voters both disapprove of Obama and have an unfavorable opinion of Romney.
However, nationally the race is essentially at a dead heat -- HuffPost's Pollster Estimate, tracking 422 polls, shows Obama leading Romney by a tenth of a percentage point: 46.2 and 46.1.
PPP's poll is showing a slightly tighter race, but still supports a recent OnSight/Keating poll which showed Obama holding his lead in Colorado by four points after the announcement of Paul Ryan to the ticket.
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