No President Reelected Without 'Outliers'

Gallup's Frank Newport talks with Ezra Klein about his likely voter model, which he also defends against the Obama campaign's pollster.

Charlie Cook thinks a popular vote/electoral college split is very possible. AP's Charles Babington has more on 'nightmare election scenarios,' and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Salena Zito outlines a quirk that could lead to the Romney-Biden administration.

David Plouffe tells reporters the Obama campaign doesn't conduct national polls.

Jonathan Bernstein questions Romney's debate bump.

Chris Cillizza disputes the idea that Mitt Romney has a woman problem - yet.

Lynn Vavreck finds party ID drives the decisions of the undecided.

Dan Hopkins reviews the problem of out-of-state cell phone numbers and state level polls.

Jennifer Rubin catches an inflammatory question on a PPP poll.

The New York Times charts the ebb and flow of swing states.

Gallup's 1938 polling offered some unusual response categories.

XKCD demolishes electoral precedent "rules."