Democrats May Have An Early Edge On Midterm Enthusiasm, Poll Says

Supporters say they plan to donate and volunteer -- but just one-third expect the party to win back the House.

Supporters of the Democratic Party are significantly more likely than backers of the GOP to say they plan on volunteering and donating to candidates in the upcoming midterm elections, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey.

About one-third of Americans who’d prefer to see Democrats control Congress say they’re at least somewhat likely to volunteer for a political party or candidate in next year’s elections, and 37 percent said they’re at least somewhat likely to donate money. Among Americans who’d prefer to see the GOP remain in control, those numbers are 20 percent and 26 percent, respectively. Those favoring the Democrats are also twice as likely as those favoring the Republicans to say they’re very likely both to donate and to volunteer.

Supporters of the Democrats are also more likely to report having participated in political actions this year.

Americans who favor a Democratic-controlled Congress are 9 points likelier than those who favor the GOP to say they’ve contacted their representative, 10 points likelier to say they’ve gone to a protest or rally, 11 points likelier to say they’ve donated to a candidate or advocacy organization and 17 points likelier to say they’ve signed a petition.

There’s less difference between the groups in rates of volunteering, posting on social media, and talking about politics with friends and family.

The rates of activism reported in the poll are likely somewhat inflated compared to the public at large ― survey respondents are more likely than average to be politically engaged. But the difference between the groups is clear, and consistent with previous polls finding a surge of activism on the left.

Use the widget below to further explore the results of the HuffPost/YouGov survey, using the menu at the top to select survey questions and the buttons at the bottom to filter the data by subgroups:

The survey comes in the wake of the closely watched and historically expensive special election to represent Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, in which Republican Karen Handel triumphed in a runoff over Democrat Jon Ossoff.

The result was a disappointment for many DemocratsDemocratic candidates have surpassed Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin against President Donald Trump in a number of special elections this year. But the Georgia race didn’t show a similar trend of record-setting Democratic turnout.

That election, while not at the top of most Americans’ minds, did attract significant national attention. Forty-six percent of those surveyed said they’d followed the election at least somewhat closely. The majority, 69 percent, were able to correctly name Handel as the victor, with just 4 percent incorrectly naming Ossoff and the remainder saying that they weren’t sure.

Nearly three-quarters of people who said they’d like to see the Republicans control Congress and knew that Handel had won said the outcome made them more hopeful about the GOP’s chances in the midterm election.

Responses among those favoring the Democratic Party were considerably more mixed. Among those aware of the outcome of the election, 20 percent said it made them more hopeful about Democrats’ chances in 2018, and 27 percent said it made them less hopeful. Another 41 percent said it didn’t do much to affect their opinions.

Just one-third of all Americans who’d like to see Democrats control Congress expect the party to retake the House of Representatives next year. Another one-third expect them to gain seats, but not enough to gain control. Just 5 percent think the Democrats will lose seats, with the remainder unsure.

A 52 percent majority of Americans who favor a Republican-controlled Congress expect Democrats to lose seats in the upcoming midterms.

The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted June 22 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.

HuffPost has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls. You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here.

Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.



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