5 Races To Watch This Election Day

In Oklahoma, New York and Florida, Democrats and Republicans are fighting for the future direction of their parties.

Voters in the populous, influential states of New York and Florida cast their ballots in potentially consequential primary elections this Tuesday. Last-minute, court-ordered redistricting in New York has turned the Democratic-leaning state into an internecine battlefield for rival left-of-center political factions. The left sees an unlikely bright spot in a central Florida House primary. And the resignation of a Republican congressman in western New York has raised the specter of a right-wing extremist rising to fill his place.

Oklahoma is also holding a runoff in the GOP Senate primary to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe. And both parties hope a special election in upstate New York gives them a chance to spin their preferred narrative about who has more momentum going into the midterm elections.

Here’s what HuffPost is watching:

The Oklahoma Race To Succeed Retiring Sen. Jim Inhofe

In Oklahoma, all eyes will be on the runoff in the Senate Republican race to succeed the retiring Jim Inhofe. The favorite is Rep. Markwayne Mullin, a five-term member of the House and vocal critic of President Joe Biden. Mullin won the June primary, taking almost 44% in a crowded 13-candidate field. T.W. Shannon, a former House speaker in the Oklahoma Legislature and the state’s most prominent African American Republican, came in second, with a bit more than 17% of the primary vote. Both Mullin and Shannon are enrolled members of Native American tribes, the Cherokee and Chickasaw nations, respectively. Mullin has criticized Biden for the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the search for White House documents at former President Donald Trump’s Florida residence. Mullin was among several House members who traveled to the Afghanistan region in 2021 to try to help Americans and Afghan allies get out as the government collapsed. He came under political fire for the trip but denied he was showboating, saying, “I’m not Rambo.”

Carl Paladino, a real estate developer in the Buffalo area known for his extreme and racist rhetoric, is running for Congress in western New York.
Carl Paladino, a real estate developer in the Buffalo area known for his extreme and racist rhetoric, is running for Congress in western New York.
KENA BETANCUR/Getty Images

Carl Paladino Attempts A Comeback

Carl Paladino, the Donald Trump of western New York, is attempting a comeback and has a real shot at winning a seat in Congress. The Buffalo real estate developer, who recently called for Attorney General Merrick Garland to be executed, is running against his onetime ally, state Republican Chair Nick Langworthy, in New York’s conservative 23rd Congressional District. The seat opened up when Rep. Chris Jacobs (R) announced his retirement after facing intense backlash within his party for supporting a ban on assault weapons. Paladino has more money and name recognition ― but also considerably more baggage.

Paladino has frequently been in the national spotlight for such comments as praising Adolf Hitler and claiming that children were being “brainwashed” into accepting gay people. In 2010, he ran a disastrous campaign for governor in which he received attention for forwarding pornographic emails to friends that were then leaked to the media. And in late 2016, he called first lady Michelle Obama a man who should live with gorillas and said he hoped Barack Obama died from having sex with a cow.

Paladino was Trump’s New York co-chair in the 2016 presidential campaign, but both he and Langworthy are touting ties to the former president and pitching policies in line with his agenda. Langworthy, however, says he comes without the drama and the “three-ring circus” that Paladino carries with him. Trump, so far, has not endorsed anyone in the race.

From left, New York Assembly member Yuh-Line Niou, U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones, Assembly member Jo Anne Simon, New York City Council member Carlina Rivera, Elizabeth Holtzman and attorney Dan Goldman participate in New York's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary debate on Aug. 10.
From left, New York Assembly member Yuh-Line Niou, U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones, Assembly member Jo Anne Simon, New York City Council member Carlina Rivera, Elizabeth Holtzman and attorney Dan Goldman participate in New York's 10th Congressional District Democratic primary debate on Aug. 10.
via Associated Press

Big Money And Big Names In An Open New York City Seat

The last-minute, nonpartisan redistricting ordered by a judge upended New York Democrats’ best-laid plans. When the new map emerged, top Democrats played a game of musical chairs to optimize their chances of winning a seat or holding on to one that they already represent.

Redistricting has pitted Rep. Jerry Nadler of Manhattan’s Upper West Side against Rep. Carolyn Maloney of the Upper East Side, both of whom are fighting for control of New York’s new 12th Congressional District. Armed with the endorsements of the New York Times editorial board and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Nadler, who is slightly to Maloney’s left on policy, is the race’s putative front-runner. Attorney Suraj Patel, who has challenged Maloney twice before, is hoping to upset both three-decade veterans of Washington.

But the contest in New York’s 10th District, an entirely new seat in lower Manhattan and central Brooklyn, has been the most open-ended and potentially most consequential for the direction of the Democratic Party. Twelve candidates remain in the race to represent one of the most solidly Democratic seats in the country. At least five contenders have mounted serious bids: Dan Goldman, a former federal prosecutor who led House Democrats’ impeachment of then-President Donald Trump in 2019; U.S. Rep. Mondaire Jones; state Assembly members Yuh-Line Niou and Jo Anne Simon; and New York City Council member Carlina Rivera.

Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. clothing fortune who has contributed $4 million of his own money to his campaign, is now widely seen as the favorite in the race. A business-friendly liberal known to die-hard Democrats from his tenure as an MSNBC contributor, Goldman won the coveted endorsement of The New York Times editorial board and has benefited from a crowded field of competitors who have split the progressive vote. His victory would be a blow to the left wing of the Democratic Party, which struggled to consolidate following redistricting.

Given the uncertainty about the makeup of the electorate in an unusual, late August primary, the race remains up in the air. Niou’s support from the hard left and natural traction within the district’s considerable Asian American community have given her a sturdy floor of support on which to build. Rivera, who has deep support from organized labor, local elected officials and Latino community leaders, has pitched herself as a bridge between the party establishment and the progressive base. And Jones, who has struggled to assuage voters’ skepticism about his decision to move from the suburbs to run in the new seat, is the only candidate capable of taking the fight to Goldman on the airwaves.

A Spark of Progressive Hope In Central Florida

Rep. Val Demings, an Orlando-area Democrat, is vacating her House seat to run against Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). That has prompted a race to succeed her in Florida’s solidly Democratic 10th Congressional District. The two top contenders for the Democratic nomination in the district are Maxwell Alejandro Frost, an anti-gun violence activist, and state Sen. Randolph Bracy. Bracy, the more moderate of the two candidates, picked up the endorsement of the Democratic Majority for Israel early on in the cycle, raising the prospect that pro-Israel groups would spend big on his behalf.

But Frost has built an unlikely coalition of support that spans the ideological spectrum, discouraging outside groups from jumping in heavily on Bracy’s behalf. Frost is backed by political action committees linked to the Congressional Progressive Caucus and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus; Protect Our Future, a pandemic preparedness super PAC funded by cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried; and a number of labor unions and environmental groups. A poll commissioned by Protect Our Future shows him leading the field with just over one-third of the vote ― a major jump from May, when the same firm had Frost polling at 3%. In an election cycle where progressives have suffered some disappointments at the ballot box, Frost could just be a bright spot.

Pat Ryan (left) and Marc Molinaro are running in a special election for New York's 19th Congressional District seat.
Pat Ryan (left) and Marc Molinaro are running in a special election for New York's 19th Congressional District seat.
Pat Ryan for Congress/Bebeto Matthews/AP

A Special Election That Has Raised Both Parties’ Hopes

Although most of the elections due to take place in the Empire State on Tuesday are primaries, in New York’s 19th Congressional District in the Hudson Valley region, voters are set to cast ballots in a special general election. Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, a Republican, is running against Ulster County Executive Pat Ryan, a Democrat, for the chance to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado for the remaining four months of the year. (Delgado’s seat opened up when New York Gov. Kathy Hochul picked him to serve as lieutenant governor in May.)

On its face, the stakes of the race are limited. Whoever wins will only serve in the seat’s pre-redistricting boundaries for a brief period. Molinaro is planning to run again in the new 19th District come November; Ryan is running in the new 18th District, into which he has been redistricted.

But both parties are fighting to maintain control of the national narrative, which an adverse outcome in New York’s 19th District threatens to complicate. As Ryan has shown signs of momentum in the wake of the Supreme Court decision overturning a federal right to abortion in June, national Republicans have poured money in to prevent a potentially embarrassing defeat for Molinaro. Democrats hope to show that the enthusiasm of its base — and some independents ― over the threat to abortion rights is blunting some of the Republicans’ momentum, not least in a seat that Biden carried by just 1 percentage point in 2020.

Molinaro, who is running as a critic of progressive criminal-justice reforms and the Biden administration’s management of the economy, has said he would oppose efforts to restrict abortion rights at the federal level. That makes Ryan’s job harder, but it would also make a Democratic win that much more notable.

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