Bringing the future into the decisions we have to take in the present is challenge faced by strategists in private enterprise and non-profit organizations as well as policy designers and decision makers in the public sector. It requires a healthy dose of skepticism about the resilience of apparently well-established premises, clear-eyed grounding in the realities surrounding us and tapping diversity of views about economic and social dynamics at play. Group think and strongly held beliefs about the likelihood of future outcomes are among the many dangers that have to be addressed.
Scenarios often provide the best way of approaching that challenge of brining a future perspective into present decisions. Scenario thinking leads you to consider plausible "what if" situations. It is most powerful (and profitable) when its purpose is not to provide elegantly provocative and diverging views of the future (which is a fun exercise) but when it is seen as an integral part of strategy review and strategy formulation processes.
Much of the practice of scenarios has taken place behind closed doors-resulting in confidential analyses that have guided decision-making in situations ranging from private investments to national defense strategies. Theoretical treaties on the scenario method and academic programs on scenario development are rare--though many books have been written about how to do scenarios
A recent book by Rafael Ramirez and Angela Wilkerson (Strategic Reframing - Oxford University Press, 2016) fills some of that gap between theory and practice and provides an excellent opportunity to revisit the logic and practice of scenarios. This book authored by two leading scenario thinkers and practitioners emphasizes the re-perceiving and learning dimension of scenarios and draw on the experience of the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach to convert concepts and notions into pragmatic insights.
The book emphasizes the value of scenarios in navigating what it calls TUNA conditions: turbulence; uncertainty; novelty and ambiguity. It proposes an approach to scenario planning that involves iterating between re-perceiving and re-framing. Parenthetically, the extensive use of the term "scenario planning" (not unique to this book) provokes thoughts of the intriguing tension between the probing, rebellious nature of scenarios and the settled, orderly world of plans. The rich references to scholarly work in various areas of social sciences (notably socio-ecology) provide the interested reader with many possible avenues to explore further the conceptual roots and methodological context for scenarios, turbulence, planning and learning.
In keeping with its dual concern about scenario scholarship and scenario planning practice, the book also offers guidance to would-be scenario developers including, but not limited to, the specific of the method that has evolved into the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach (which also serves as subtitle to the book's title). The six case studies presented in appendixes (one of which concerning a private enterprise) help make the guidance come alive.
Finally, the authors step back from the theory and practice of scenarios and put forward pending unresolved and questions: for scenario practitioners to be mindful as they avoid pitfalls and make the most of the insights and learning that this powerful tool can offer; and for scenario scholars to consider when choosing areas for research.