Ted Cruz gets a bump in recognition after announcing his candidacy. Hillary Clinton's standing among Democrats is higher now than in 2007. And swing state presidential nominees have an advantage, but not a decisive one. This is HuffPollster for Monday, March 30, 2015.
BUSH RETAINS ADVANTAGE IN RECOGNITION; CRUZ GAINS - CBS News: "As he did last month, Jeb Bush remains the potential candidate with the most support from Republicans, and he is also the best-known of the candidates tested. Former Governor Mike Huckabee shows the second-highest level of consideration, followed by Senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. Texas Senator Ted Cruz has undergone the biggest change since last month (interviews were being conducted for the poll when he announced his candidacy): 37 percent of Republicans would now consider voting for him, last month only 23 percent said so. Senator Rand Paul has gained 9 points since last month; now, 39 percent would consider voting for him, up from 30 percent in February. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker remains less well-known, but almost all Republicans who know him would consider voting for him; just 8 percent say they would not (the smallest percentage of any potential candidate tested in the poll)... Governor Chris Christie… receives the highest percentage - 42 percent - who say they would not consider voting for him. Fewer Republicans now say they would consider voting for neurosurgeon Ben Carson than did so last month." [CBS]
Clinton's position unchanged among Democrats - More from CBS: "Revelations about Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state have done little to change her commanding lead as the potential candidate for the Democratic nomination in 2016. 81 percent would consider voting for her - the same percentage as last month… Even though far more Democrats would consider voting for Clinton than any other candidate, most would still like to see a competitive Democratic primary. While more than eight in 10 Democrats want to see Clinton run, 66 percent want to see her run with strong competition from other Democratic candidates. Only 21 percent want to see her run without any real competition." [CBS]
CLINTON'S FAVORABLE HIGHER NOW THAN IN 2007 - Jeffrey M. Jones: "Hillary Clinton's net favorability rating among Democrats -- defined as the percentage who have a favorable opinion of her minus the percentage with an unfavorable opinion -- is higher now than at a similar point leading up to the 2008 presidential election. Her net favorability is also similar to Al Gore's rating early on in the 2000 presidential campaign. The current Democratic field does not appear to present as much competition for Clinton as she faced in 2008. Besides her lead in favorability ratings over her potential 2016 rivals, Clinton also enjoys an advantage in familiarity over her competition. Ninety-two percent of Democrats know Clinton well enough to have an opinion of her, compared with 81% for Joe Biden and 46% for Elizabeth Warren… National polls show Clinton the clear leader when Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are asked to say which of the potential 2016 Democratic candidates they are most likely to support for the nomination. Clinton also had a significant lead over her rivals in 2007 on the same measure. But Clinton may have been more vulnerable in the 2008 campaign than her early lead on the nomination ballot implied because Democrats viewed her major competitors -- Barack Obama (+55 net favorable) and John Edwards (+54) -- nearly as favorably as they viewed Clinton (+58)." [Gallup]
HOW MUCH COULD SWING STATE 'BUMPS' MATTER IN 2016? - Scott Clement: "Consider this: four potential Republican nominees come from sizable swing states that could – who knows! – swing the presidential election. Florida is home to Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, Wisconsin to Scott Walker and Ohio to John Kasich....So we wondered: Could coming from a swing state boost a candidate’s chances of winning?...Polls show almost none of these Republicans leads Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup today in their home state, but history tells a different story: presidential candidates consistently get a medium-size bump in their home states -- 3.61 percentage points on average in elections through 2008. Accounting for 2012, it's 3.5 points....And that home-state bump could indeed make a pretty sizable difference come 2016. A typical 3.5-point bump would push Rubio or Bush above the 50 percent mark when compared to Republican candidates’ 49.5 percent average in the last five cycles. The same home state advantage would also be enough for Kasich to flip Ohio compared to Republicans' 49.1 percent average in recent elections. Wisconsin would be a bigger lift for a home-state edge to matter, but a typical 3.5-point edge would barely be enough to swing the Badger State for Walker....Now, there’s a gigantic caveat to the fascinating home-state advantage: It has never changed the outcome of a presidential race. This is because the Electoral College result is rarely close enough for an individual state to be decisive...Put together the chance of a home-state swing and the likelihood of it being decisive, and there’s a 5 percent chance a Florida home-state advantage for Bush/Rubio would swing the presidency in 2016. That dips to 4 percent for Ohio and 2 percent for Wisconsin. This estimate is rough and might be an underestimate, since two of the closest four elections have occurred recently." [WashPost]
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MONDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Most Americans don't think the nation's energy situation is very serious. [Gallup]
-Majorities back expulsion of university students who make racist statements or who have been accused of sexual assault. [YouGov]
-An interactive graphic shows how much some Republican presidential candidates' support in Iowa overlaps with others, as measured by the Quinnipiac Poll. [National Journal]
-Nate Silver says Harry Reid's retirement makes it tougher for the Democrats to hold his Nevada Senate seat. [538]
-With one week left until the Chicago mayoral runoff race, the most recent poll gives Rahm Emanuel a double digit lead. [Chicago SunTimes, Pollster Chart]
-Jim Tankersley reports on the Democrats' dilemma: voters have an aversion to government intervention to address inequality. [WashPost]
-Noam Scheiber finds the 2016 candidates align with the wealthy on income inequality. [NYT]
-Republicans view President Obama as a more imminent threat to the U.S. than Vladimir Putin or Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. [Reuters]
-Online media commentary about Hillary Clinton grew more negative after the email story broke. [US News]
-Daily Kos Politics takes a closer look at the 2014 election results with a set of interactive maps. [Daily Kos]
-Young people today vote less frequently than young people in the past. [WashPost]
-Will Jennings rounds up the latest U.K. election forecast results. [@drjennings]
-Aarian Marshall explains why most Twitter maps can't be trusted. [CityLab]
-How a poll pitting Obama against House of Cards character Frank Underwood tells us more about the limitations of poll questions than about Obama. [Pacific Standard]
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