Some GOP voters are getting nervous about Trump’s chances. The conventions didn’t do much to change views of either party. And Barack Obama’s ratings are still on the rise. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, August 11, 2016.
A THIRD OF REPUBLICANS DON’T EXPECT TRUMP TO WIN - Kathy Frankovic: “Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump ended what was a very bad week with members of his own party less convinced he can win the general election against Democrat Hillary Clinton. At this stage in an election cycle, partisans usually are sure their nominee can win, but the latest Economist/YouGov Poll finds just about a third of Republicans expecting a Clinton victory in November, nearly double the percentage who thought that a week ago. Last week, after both party conventions, 69% of Republicans expected a Trump victory. A majority still believe that, but the percentage has dropped 14 points after what is being called Trump’s ‘terrible, horrible, no good, very bad’ week. 81% of Democrats expect a Clinton victory.” [YouGov]
Trump’s performance in traditionally red states isn’t inspiring confidence - Nate Cohn: “If you looked only at the blue states, you probably wouldn’t think that Donald J. Trump was in huge trouble….But the red states are a totally different story. Polls show him trailing or barely ahead in reliably Republican states like Georgia, Arizona and Utah, even Kansas….The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters….On paper, that’s easy enough in a state like Iowa or Ohio, where white working-class voters are plentiful and President Obama won a lot of them. They might now be willing to reject Hillary Clinton. But that doesn’t work so well if there aren’t many white working-class Democrats for Mr. Trump to win over, or if there are a lot of well-educated voters for him to lose. That’s more or less the situation in Georgia, and across many red states.” [NYT]
VIEWS OF THE PARTIES UNCHANGED POST-CONVENTION - Zac Auter: “Americans’ perceptions of the Republican and Democratic parties at the conclusion of this summer’s presidential nominating season are little changed from what they were before the conventions began. Overall, 44% of Americans hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party ― similar to the 43% in mid-July. Meanwhile, just over a third (36%) of Americans have a favorable view of the Republican Party, compared with 37% before the conventions….Eighty percent of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic have a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. GOP supporters grade the Republican Party less positively, with 63% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican rating their party favorably….Trump is running as the nominee of a party that is held in less favor in the eyes of the public than his opponent’s, presenting his campaign with a politically challenging environment. At the same time, Republicans are slightly more positive about him than they are their own party, while Democrats are less positive about Clinton than they are the Democratic Party.” [Gallup]
OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING CONTINUES TO RISE - HuffPollster: “While Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are battling to get into the White House, its current occupant is seeing his numbers continue to climb. A new Monmouth University survey out Wednesday gives President Barack Obama a 56 percent approval rating, up 7 points since July. Most other recent polling puts his numbers slightly lower. HuffPost Pollster’s average currently gives him a 50 percent approval rating, up 5 points since the beginning of the year. It’s the best Obama has fared in the average since the start of his second term….The president’s numbers have also seen a rebound in state-level polling. For the first time in years, Obama’s ratings are above water in states including Florida,Iowa, Virginia and Wisconsin, and rising in other states like Pennsylvania. How the nation sees Obama matters for reasons beyond his legacy. Views of the incumbent president and the state of the economy have traditionally been a strong predictor of which party’s nominee will replace him.” [HuffPost]
WISCONSIN SEEMS OUT OF REACH FOR TRUMP - Charles Franklin: “A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with support from 46 percent of Wisconsin registered voters and Republican candidate Donald Trump with support from 36 percent in a head-to-head presidential matchup. Sixteen percent say they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote, or don’t know how they will vote…. Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in November, Clinton is supported by 52 percent and Trump by 37 percent in the new poll, with 10 percent saying they will support neither candidate….In a four-way matchup including Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton is supported by 42 percent of registered voters, with Trump at 33 percent, Johnson at 10 and Stein at 4. A total of 11 percent in that matchup say they will vote for none of the candidates, won’t vote or don’t know how they will vote. Among likely voters, Clinton receives 47 percent, Trump 34, Johnson 9 and Stein 3.” [Marquette]
There haven’t been a lot of polls in Wisconsin, but the HuffPost Pollster chart shows Trump well behind Clinton based on the Marquette Law School poll.
THURSDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-SurveyMonkey’s tracking poll finds Donald Trump’s image declining. [SurveyMonkey]
-Karen Tumulty and Mary Jordan examine whether split-ticket voting could make a comeback. [WashPost]
-Alan Abramowitz explains why he think Trump will underperform compared to a generic Republican candidate. [Center for Politics]
-Harry Enten notes that Trump is in fourth place among black voters. [538]
-Grace Sparks writes that Mike Pence is making a better first impression than Tim Kaine. [HuffPost]
-Americans don’t trust either Trump or Hillary Clinton to handle the nation’s nuclear weapons. [HuffPost]
-Nearly three-quarters of GOP voters still doubt Barack Obama’s citizenship. [NBC]
-Nate Silver unskews the Olympics medal count. [538]