While the White House sorts out its personnel and personal issues about who is in charge, and Congress investigates the nature and extent of the Trump campaign team’s involvement with the Russians, the world continues to turn, leaving the United States flat-footed with respect to its responses to global crises.
The head of US Special Operations Command, General Tony Thomas, put it best at a recent military conference, “Our government continues to be in unbelievable turmoil. I hope they sort it out soon because we’re a nation at war…” This is not an ill-placed concern. General Thomas is a warrior and a patriot, who undoubtedly wants to make sure he can serve his country and protect his troops effectively. Unfortunately, this has become much more complicated.
For example, the North Koreans launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile that used solid fuel, a real advancement for the North Korean effort to have a nuclear capable missile that could reach the continental US. President Trump’s public comment was that he backed the Japanese vis-à-vis their concerns over this launch, saying nothing about actions the US would take. His initial discussion over how to respond was done openly, at a public restaurant, using non-secure cell phones.
As to the US-Russia entente that President Trump promised, that is not going so well either. Russia is organizing a conference on the future of Afghanistan with the Afghans, Pakistan, India, China, Iran and no US participation. This is a signal that Moscow has its own thoughts on what the future in Afghanistan and the region should be, and it does not necessarily include the US.
This is of a particular concern, since Afghanistan is our longest war, and the brave men and women who remain there defending US interests should not be forgotten. That makes it all the more concerning that the White House apparently has not discussed a plan of action for US policy in Afghanistan. The Taliban, ISIS and other terrorist groups are poised to take advantage of the lack of engagement by the White House with respect to a Trump strategy in Afghanistan. General John Nicholson, the US commander in Afghanistan, deserves full support.
For the past several months, Russia has been conducting meetings on a possible political settlement in Syria with the Syrians, some of the US backed opposition, Iran and Turkey in Astana, Kazakhstan. The talks began when President Obama was still in office without US involvement. Apparently the Russians invited then President-elect Trump to participate. He declined. Had the Trump Administration become involved without having their own Syrian strategy, they would have in effect been rubber-stamping Russian-Syrian policy. That would have been a bad move. Nonetheless, the Russians are continuing with their effort without the US, as opposed to waiting for the Trump Administration to prepare its Syria strategy.
Perhaps most importantly, the Russians appear to be in violation of the Reagan era Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). Russia has apparently secretly deployed an intermediate range cruise missile. President Trump gave some indication that he may want to pursue an arms control agreement with the Russians. This violation of the INF treaty is yet another indication that while Russian President Putin may be willing to compliment President Trump, his actions indicate that he will pursue an agenda that disregards commitments or the concerns of the US and his friend Donald Trump.
Candidate Trump talked about getting tough with ISIS, developing his own approach in contrast to what he viewed as a flawed policy by the Obama Administration. Unfortunately, his Executive Order banning immigrants from seven predominately Muslim countries helps ISIS. In addition, there is no indication that he has focused on the transformative changes of ISIS and Al Qaeda, which will have a profound impact on US counter-terrorism efforts at home and abroad.
Venezuela is about to implode and tension with Mexico is at an apex. The relative calm in Latin America of the past several years could change if more attention is not paid to developing a strategy on how to respond to the situation in Venezuela. There is also a pressing need to work with the Mexican government on a range of issues from immigration, to economics, to dealing with drug cartels. Engagement and partnership have been missing from the President’s comments about the region in general and Mexico in particular.
Achieving peace between Israel and the Palestinians is said to be a goal of the President, and he is putting his son-in-law in charge of making it happen. It is unclear how he intends to achieve this: what specifically the US stance is toward settlements, a two-state solution and moving the embassy to Jerusalem. Clarity is key when working on this issue, and there has been no clarity so far on the part of the White House.
As the White House follows the Trumpian approach of conflict and unpredictability, the world turns and crises mount. The internecine wars among close Trump advisors is making it more and more difficult to discern, let along develop, a clear focus on where the President wants to take the country. Rome is burning, and the President is tweeting. General Thomas is right. We are at war, and the world is replete with crises, so the White House had better sort things out.
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