Splitting Up California Won't Do The GOP Any Favors, Study Finds

Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tim Draper presents his drivers license for identification purposes to Heather Ditty, elect
Silicon Valley venture capitalist Tim Draper presents his drivers license for identification purposes to Heather Ditty, elections manager for the Sacramento County Registrar of Voters, as he turns in boxes of petitions for a ballot initiative that would ask voters to split California into six separate states, Tuesday, July 15, 2014, in Sacramento, Calif. Draper delivered what he said were 44,000 signatures, of the 1.3 million the Six California's campaign plans to submit statewide this week. If enough signatures are verified, voters in November 2016 would be asked to divide the state into six states called Jefferson, North California, Silicon Valley, Central California, West California and South California. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

Despite some Republican enthusiasm for venture capitalist Tim Draper’s proposal to split California into six states, a recent study found that the splicing would do little to shake up the national political climate.

Three of Draper’s proposed six states -- Silicon Valley, West California and North California -- would maintain Democratic strongholds, argued University of California, Berkeley, political experts Ethan Rarick and Jack Citrin, based on an analysis of the state’s recent election results. Two of the states -- Central California and Jefferson -- would have a slight Republican edge, and South California would be a political battleground.

In total, the experts contended, Democrats would hold a majority of state offices, while Republicans would gain an insignificant edge in the Electoral College. They noted that even if the six states had existed in the last presidential election, President Barack Obama likely still would have comfortably won due to the newly created blue states’ Electoral College allotment offsetting the gains of the newly created red states.

Looking further ahead at the GOP’s dwindling influence in California, the researchers said Draper’s proposal may eventually result in even more left-leaning states

“Given the ever-increasing diversity of the electorate and the GOP’s difficulty in wooing Latino voters ... chopping up the state could produce not merely Six Californias, but Six Democratic Californias,” they wrote on Fox&Hounds Daily.

According to The Hill, at least two congressmen from California, Reps. John Campbell (R) and Dana Rohrabacher (R), have come out in support of the Six Californias initiative. Draper has submitted signatures he hopes will secure the plan a place on the 2016 ballot.

Former Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) applauded Draper for his efforts during an interview with him on his Voices of Liberty channel.

“I think it’s a great idea and I appreciate very much what you’re doing, because I think it has great significance not only for California but for this general principle I believe so strongly in that people should have rights to self-determination and responsibility, and smaller units of government work better than larger units of government,” Paul said.

The likelihood of Six Californias becoming a reality, the researchers reminded readers, is incredibly far-fetched, since Congress would have to approve legislation, even if voters pass it in 2016.



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