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Watching the Iowa caucus returns this week, I found myself humming an old hit and wondering who among the candidates was more surprised by the results?
Was it Ted Cruz, who actually slayed the great and powerful Mr. Trump? Was it Trump who almost came in third to Marco Rubio? Or was it Rubio who almost beat Trump? Looking left, was it Hillary Clinton who seemed lost in a Barack-then-Bernie-now groundhog day? Or was it Bernie Sanders whose speech came last and well past my prime time bedtime?
Iowa was a stunner that will redeem or revise so many plays for the presidency. Here's how:
TED CRUZ is the giant killer. He was the only candidate to draft The Donald (our 2015 play of the year) and the only one to successfully pass him. This, despite Trump's many red herrings of Canadian citizenship and the endorsement of The Donald by Sarah Palin, the mother of all surrogates. Cruz won't fix what's not broken. He'll double down on the label of courageous conservative, claim Trump as a hunting trophy, and recast his friendless reputation as ferocious. Oh, and he'll deflect allegations of having seeded the pre-caucus rumor of a suspended Ben Carson campaign.
DONALD TRUMP is now beatable. His trumper-tantrum tweets (Ted stole the election. Bad!) finally ring hallow. He needs a new act, even in New Hampshire where his invincibility is under review. Watch for The Donald to switch gears, from showman to statesman. Reality show peacocks will slowly give way to authoritative fiats, all to demonstrate he's a quick study who manage as well as he manipulates.
MARCO RUBIO will nod as surrogates ping, He's the chosen one. He'll tout a fresh list of endorsement as proof. To bury Jeb Bush, he'll remind voters that he's young (and old) enough to be president. To keep his governor-rivals off-stride, he'll hammer away at foreign affairs and rain us with worries of terrorism and, wink-wink, those nasty muslims. Gang of eight be damned, Rubio will be a study in the diverting play we call the deflect.
CHRIS CHRISTIE hasn't won a thing and he's surviving on a string. But with Jersey-kid style he's ready to rumble in the Granite State. Christie's plays are well-scripted challenges to the media, to make Marco answer for his flips on immigration and to give us just one example of a Rubio executive decision. "He's the boy in the bubble," blurts the guv, a Trump-like ping on Rubio's short stature and resume. And as for Hillary, Christie wants to remind us that there's a new sheriff, er prosecutor, in New Hampshire. "Ill beat her read end," he promises, dashing more gas on emailgate.
HILLARY CLINTON couldn't switch gears fast enough. Whether in her victory-should-be-mine speech or sunrise stumps in New Hampshire, Hillary seemed to be channeling her pluckiest populist self. Her voice was louder. Her jaw was harder set. Her plays were the same, but what had changed were the variables of posture, intonation and urgency. If only she knew that it conveys as yet another adjustment to a constantly changing caricature. Wrote the political scholar Dan Schnur, "She has had every possible structural and organizational advantage and Sanders fought her to a draw."
BERNIE SANDERS, like Ted Cruz, might not change a thing. Even his republican counterparts are doing his dirty work (see Christie, above). Watch for Sanders to stay the course, never apologizing for his socialist leanings and always purloining the rich. If he can convince the older middle class that his intentions won't crash their 401Ks, he might be Clinton's second curse.