Superbowl LI: The Dirty Birds Will Dance

Superbowl LI: The Dirty Birds Will Dance
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The 2016 NFL season will soon culminate in Superbowl LI's clash of offensive juggernauts -- the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Ranked first and third in scoring offense, respectively, it's expected that the scoreboard will be lit up.

(Associated Press/David J. Phillip)

Newly minted MVP and offensive player of the year Matt Ryan will hope to continue his stellar play for one final game. Luckily, he should have his full arsenal at all-systems-go. Running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman are arguably the most electric duo in the league at that position. Also sporting Falcon black and red is that guy who can catch the ball really well and run with it. No, not Patrick DiMarco.

Tom Brady and HC Bill Belichick have done it again. If you're reading this, you've probably already heard what I'm about to say. Probably more than a couple times too. Seemingly year after year, no matter the circumstance, we find the Patriots in this position. How? Nobody really knows. Your starting and future HOF quarterback is suspended for four games? No problem. Your freakishly athletic and ultra-talented offensive weapon in TE Rob Gronkowski goes down for the season? *shrugs*.

While the offensive prowess of these two squads is well-documented, I believe not enough focus is being put on New England's stout defense. They ranked first in scoring defense this season and were very successful in neutralizing Pittsburgh WR Antonio Brown in the AFC Championship game. It'd be safe to assume New England DC Matt Patricia will follow a similar gameplan later today in attempting to stop WR Julio Jones. Let's take a look at how they did it.

Play #1

Here, New England is in Cover 1 with FS Duron Harmon shading over to WR Antonio Brown’s side of the field. At the snap of the ball, CB Malcolm Butler remains physical with Brown while maintaining his trail technique. And with Harmon taking away over-the-top plays, they successfully squeeze Brown. In this play, there is slim to no window for the ball to be thrown and the result is an incomplete.

Play #2

In this play, New England still doubles up on Brown though they do so a bit differently. Butler initially shows press coverage however bails at the snap of the ball. He does so because he has underneath help coming in SS Patrick Chung, who is bluffing his over-top coverage initially. So, Butler takes away the deep threat while Chung takes away Brown’s underneath routes.

With these next plays, I will show what I believe will be the deciding factor in the game: the ability of guys like WR Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel to make plays for Atlanta. These guys will see a ton of one-on-one instances with Julio Jones being doubled, and must be able to take advantage of it for Atlanta to succeed.

Play #4

Butler is positioned with inside technique on Brown to take away any slants, drags, etc. He is also in press coverage because he knows he has help over the top from FS Devin McCourty. As you can see, McCourty is shading to Brown’s side, leaving the opposite side of the field uncovered. With Brown taken out of the play, this leaves WR Cobi Hamilton in one-on-one coverage with CB Logan Ryan on the other side. Unfortunately, Hamilton is able to beat his man but is unable to make the play.

Play #4

It’s the same story here. Butler playing press and trail technique creates a squeeze with McCourty who is playing over the top, leaving one-on-one matchups for the other receivers. Pittsburgh successfully runs a rub route with WR Eli Rogers, who gets free over the middle for big gain. He is able to pick up a chunk of yards after the catch thanks to the attention drawn by Brown (McCourty was pulled).

Superbowl LI will be one to remember. I truly believe we are in for a great one. At the conclusion of it, I do expect the Atlanta Falcons to be crowned 2016 NFL Champions for a few reasons:

  1. Atlanta’s pass-catchers will be too much for the Patriots. I do not see Julio Jones having a spectacular day, as he will draw tons of double coverage. On the same token, I believe Sanu, Gabriel and even RB Tevin Coleman will exploit their matchups.
  1. Devonta Freeman is a beast. I’ve been a huge fan of Freeman’s this season and I believe he’ll show why later today. I don’t expect a monster day, but I do think he will go over 100 scrimmage yards with a TD. His combination of power and quickness is killer.
  1. Vic Beasley Jr. put together an impressive sophomore season as he led the league in sacks (15.5). HC Dan Quinn deserves a world of credit for his job in coaching up this young Atlanta defense. They play fast and they play hard. I see Beasley Jr. being a problem for New England’s offensive line. Watch out for rookie LB Deion Jones, who has been making plays for Atlanta’s defense all season long.

PREDICTION: ATL wins, 31 - 27

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