What are some current tech trends that are inflated and will die? originally appeared on Quora - the knowledge sharing network where compelling questions are answered by people with unique insights.
I find it really hard to tell, but let me pick one that's still unclear where I have a clear thesis and am probably contrarian. I think that use cases for VR will be far more limited than some people think.
I'm very excited about VR as a gaming platform, including new forms of interactive gaming. This is clearly a huge market and will pull from both games and other entertainment dollars. My oldest child will literally get VR at the same I got my Nintendo, and no doubt it'll be as important in her life.
BUT, I see a lot of people talking about and investing in VR for live events, from concerts to sports, or looking at other uses like video conferencing.
I think what these people are getting wrong is that VR is necessarily an immersive experience. That makes it great for gaming, but less great for experiences where you might, for example, want to be on Twitter (watching the game), checking your email (remote meetings), or having hanging out and being social (watching a show with your family/friends). It's not clear VR will ever be better for these experiences.
VR us also ideal for self-directed experiences, like gaming. I think we'll see things that look like movies but play like games. BUT, what won't work is dropping you into a virtual seat at a stadium, concert, or putting you into a movie as a passive actor. Directors of movies and producers of TV events are just better than you at creating a great experience. They do it with 50 cameras and realtime or planned transitions that make your experience great. You in a VR seat at the ballpark or a the table in the Godfather makes a cool demo, but isn't real, IMO.
So, if I had to guess, I'd bet that of X for VR startups will fail because they fail to understand the medium. We will see...