Texas, which has the second largest population of any state in the country, holds its primary elections on Tuesday.
This week’s contests will not necessarily be decisive because state law requires a runoff election on May 24 if no candidate obtains an outright majority in the first round of voting.
Still, as the first set of primaries of the 2022 midterm elections, the outcomes could offer clues about the directions of the Republican and Democratic parties.
Here are four things to watch for in Tuesday’s contests.
A Progressive Takes On ‘The King Of Laredo’ — Again
Jessica Cisneros, a progressive immigration attorney backed by the group Justice Democrats, is once again challenging Rep. Henry Cuellar for the Democratic nomination in Texas’ 28th Congressional District.
The race provides another opportunity for the activist left to replace one of the most conservative Democrats in the House with someone who would be one of the chamber’s most outspoken progressives. A win for Cisneros would be especially significant because voters in Texas’ 28th are concentrated in Laredo and other heavily Latino communities along the U.S.-Mexican border, where Cuellar maintains that left-wing views on issues like immigration, law enforcement, and environmental policy are anathema to Democratic voters. Cuellar’s roots run so deep in the region, where his brother is the county sheriff and his sister once served as tax assessor, that he is sometimes called the “King of Laredo.”
In 2020, Cisneros came within 4 percentage points of unseating Cuellar.
This time around, Cuellar again started off with a massive fundraising advantage. But since late January when the FBI raided Cuellar’s home as part of an investigation of his ties to Azerbaijan, Cisneros has experienced a surge of donations that has significantly narrowed the cash gap. The raid prompted an exodus of consultants from Cuellar’s race, as well as the deactivation of at least one dark-money group backing his bid.
Cisneros and groups supporting her have been able to leverage the influx of money on her behalf to outspend Cuellar on TV, according to television advertising data obtained by HuffPost.
Another variable in this year’s race is the presence of a third candidate, Tannya Benavides, a community organizer and educator, who is also running on a progressive platform, but lacks the support from activist groups that Cisneros has. Benavides is expected to finish last, but if she performs strongly, she could force a runoff between Cuellar and Cisneros.
“Trump’s not on the ballot right now.”
- Gilberto Hinojosa, chair of the Texas Democratic Party
Republicans also have their eyes on Texas’ 28th. The party made significant inroads in Texas’ border communities in the 2020 election, with President Donald Trump improving his margin, or outright winning, several counties — including Zapata County, which is in the district. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) and the Republican National Committee have continued to pour resources into the region in the intervening period, hoping to build on their gains.
Torunn Sinclair, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which helps elect Republicans to the House, said the party sees benefits in either Cisneros winning, given her progressive stances, or Cuellar winning, given his ethical challenges.
“This has become Democrats’ worst nightmare in South Texas,” Sinclair said.
The Republican primary in Texas’ 28th is crowded and likely to result in a runoff. The field nonetheless features a number of candidates with significant institutional backing, including Cassy Garcia, a former aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) who has received his endorsement, and Willie Vasquez Ng, a former San Antonio police officer who has the blessing of the San Antonio Police Officers Association.
Redistricting made Texas’ 28th more Democratic, not less. President Joe Biden won the old district by 4 percentage points and the new one by 7 points.
Gilberto Hinojosa, chairman of the Texas Democratic Party, nonetheless expressed confidence that Democrats would hold Texas’ 28th. He argued that some Democrats in South Texas voted for Trump because they liked him specifically, rather than because they had abandoned the Democratic Party entirely.
“Trump’s not on the ballot right now,” he said.
Possible Progressive Gains In Solid Blue Seats
In two open primaries in solidly Democratic U.S. House seats in Texas, progressive candidates are in a strong position to win, expanding their ranks in the House Democratic Caucus at a time when the caucus itself is expected to shrink.
Austin City Councilman Greg Casar is favored to come in first against Texas state Rep. Eddie Rodriguez and former San Antonio City Councilwoman Rebecca Viagrán in Texas’ 35th Congressional District, a thin “fajita strip”-shaped district stretching from East Austin to downtown San Antonio. The heavily Democratic seat was vacated by Rep. Lloyd Doggett, an Austin Democrat who is choosing to run in Texas’ new 37th Congressional District, which is more concentrated in and around Austin.
In more than seven years on Austin’s city council, Casar, a former advocate for immigrant construction workers, has made a national name for himself pushing for the adoption of higher labor standards for low-wage workers. But he was also the face of Austin’s efforts to reduce police funding and experiment with the decriminalization of homeless street living, both of which have since been undone in one form or another due to voter backlash.
That Casar overcame this political baggage to take the lead early on over Rodriguez in polling and fundraising is a testament to his political skill. For example, Casar’s decision to renounce the boycott, divestment, and sanctions movement against Israel cost him the support of the Austin chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America, but likely also spared him an onslaught from deep-pocketed pro-Israel groups like Democratic Majority for Israel. He is now hoping to avoid a runoff by winning an outright majority on Tuesday. In a district where Republicans are not competitive, a primary win would all but officially make him the next member of Congress’ ultraliberal “Squad.” (Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, the most famous member of that group, visited Texas to campaign for both Casar and Cisneros.)
“There will be tests of the center-left versus the far left this cycle, but these Texas races really don’t fall in that category.”
- Mark Mellman, president of Democratic Majority for Israel
Meanwhile, in Texas’ 30th Congressional District in and around Dallas, there is a heated contest underway to succeed retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson. Texas state Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D), a civil rights attorney who represented Black Lives Matter protesters, has the backing of Johnson — for whom she once worked — as well as of the Working Families Party. Crockett has also picked up the support of two super PACs funded by cryptocurrency investors who are spending $2 million on her behalf.
The race in Texas’ 30th is shaping up as a battle in miniature for the future makeup of the Congressional Black Caucus, as the influential voting bloc undergoes unusually high generational turnover. Crockett is competing against eight other candidates, including former state Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway; attorney Abel Mulugheta; and Jane Hamilton, a former chief of staff to Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas), who has endorsed her. The contest is expected to result in a runoff to determine the nominee in the solid Democratic seat.
Given Casar’s and Crockett’s apparently high chances of victory, some moderate Democrats are already downplaying the ideological implications of their wins.
“There will be tests of the center-left versus the far left this cycle, but these Texas races really don’t fall in that category,” said Mark Mellman, president of Democratic Majority for Israel.
DMFI has not endorsed a candidate in Texas’ 28th or 35th. In Texas’ 30th, the group endorsed Hamilton, but has not spent money on her behalf.
A Nasty GOP Fight For Attorney General
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) achieved new notoriety among liberals last week when he announced plans to investigate the parents of transgender adolescents for “child abuse.”
But in Texas, Paxton’s political future is in jeopardy for different reasons entirely. The FBI is investigating him for using his office to benefit a political donor, after eight former aides went public with allegations that he did so. And Paxton has been under indictment since 2015 for separate allegations of securities fraud.
In a bid for his third term in office, Paxton has three major Republican challengers: Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former Texas Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman, and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert. Most observers believe a runoff is very likely.
In the final days, Paxton has trained his fire on Gohmert, attacking his attendance record in Congress. Gohmert has staked his candidacy on Paxton’s ethical issues, focusing in a recent debate on the danger Paxton could pose for the GOP if he gets indicted again after the primary.
Meanwhile, Bush has tried to question Guzman’s commitment to conservative policies like building the border wall. (She insists that she supports it.)
Matt Mackowiak, a GOP consultant who chairs the Travis County Republican Party, believes Paxton is stronger than his Republican opponents think.
“Trump has stood by Paxton and whether you like it or not, that does matter in Republican primaries,” he said.
Texas Democrats see an opportunity to take over the attorney general’s seat, either with a damaged Paxton in place, or a new candidate who lacks the advantage of incumbency. Joe Jaworski, a trial lawyer and former mayor of Galveston, Lee Merritt, a Dallas civil rights attorney, and Rochelle Garza, a Brownsville attorney, are competing for the Democratic attorney general nomination.
Hoisted By Their Own Gerrymandering
Texas Republicans worked diligently to help Republicans flip the House in November by drawing new congressional districts that were as GOP-friendly as they could be. In the Dallas and Houston areas, in particular, the party tried to dilute the influence of a suburban electorate that has grown more liberal and racially diverse by spreading out suburban voters among rural districts.
But as HuffPost’s Travis Waldron explained, the new boundaries were so secure that they encouraged more intraparty competition. Texas Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R) and Van Taylor (R) have right-wing challengers who have attacked them for being insufficiently loyal to Trump. Both Crenshaw and Taylor voted to certify the 2020 election results and have rejected claims that Trump actually won the election. Taylor also voted for the creation of a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.
Crenshaw’s and Taylor’s challengers have struggled to raise enough money to mount competitive bids. Both incumbents are expected to survive their primaries and even avoid a runoff. But the races themselves demonstrate the challenges of partisan gerrymandering and the lingering influence on the GOP of Trump’s refusal to admit he lost in 2020.