The Admiral v. PACman: New Shape to Pennsylvania Senate Race

Republicans must be (privately) lamenting Rand Paul's victory in the Kentucky primary. Not only did Mitch McConnell get belted in his chin, but he quickly signed on to the charming idiocy of Paul's candidacy. It will be a Democratic candidate's delight to let the proud people of Kentucky know what Kentucky will lose if Rand Paul gets to the Senate and gets his way.

But, what Republicans should really be crying about is Joe Sestak's stunning victory over Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. The Democrats now have a 3-star Admiral (Sestak) running against a "K-Street" (OK, I looked it up, and the "Club for Growth" is actually located on "L" Street, but let the Republicans argue that little detail, as "K-Street" is a state of mind and corruption, not a precise address) PACman who spent 4 years running a PAC, and earlier had traded credit default swaps for Chemical Bank, and then graduated to derivatives trading for Morgan, Grenfall that was acquired by Deutsche Bank.

Of course, the pollsters got it all wrong again, allowing our media pundits to talk vapidly about this race for weeks on end, telling everyone Sestak did not have a chance (and telling us that Blanche Lincoln would beat Halter in Arkansas by double-digits). And, expect them to do it again, telling Pennsylvanians that they are going to elect Pat Toomey as their Senator.

So, let's get this straight. The hearty people of Pennsylvania are going to believe a DC PACman/swaps-derivatives trader will really work for their interests in the United States Senate over a 3-Star Admiral? While Toomey was betting against the US dollar, Sestak was defending the country.

I do not know who donates to the Club for Growth, Toomey's PAC, but won't it be interesting to find out. Any guesses?

Now, the Republicans are not going to take this defeat sitting down. Karl Rove will be engaged to unleash his hateful politics -- his strategy is to attack opponents' strength, so expect him to go after Admiral Sestak's military record. James Boyce and Dave Johnson (both of the Huffington Post) spent part of the 2006 campaign exposing front groups Republicans had established that attacked the military records of each and every Democratic candidate who was a veteran -- although the front groups had different names, they were funded by more-or-less the same slimeballs. As that was made clear to the people in the district, the impact of these scurrilous attacks waned. The result was that 10 of 13 Democratic candidates who were veterans won.

So, just to get this started, I hereby provide a complete daily report of Pat Toomey's military record from the day he volunteered:

Sestak's campaign got a good work-out in the primary, showing it could take it to the opponent and put him on the defensive. Unlike the Republicans' methods, they did this without lying and without spreading rumors.

If the Sestak campaign explains, now, who this Pat Toomey really is, who he has worked for, whom he represents, what "job" he has held for the last 4 years, the voters of Pennsylvania will get it very quickly.

So, my advice: don't listen to the polls and pundits. Barring an unforeseen gaffe or revelation, Sestak will beat Toomey in a landslide. Among the "toss-up" seats, this is a very good investment indeed.

The Admiral vs. the PACman/derivates-swaps trader.

(I have no connection whatsoever to the Sestak campaign).