Each January, I write the Business Dean's Quiz about what the new year will bring. What do you think of my answers (at the bottom of the post)?
(1) Which Trump nominee(s) will fail to be confirmed by the Senate (or withdraw)?
(a) Steven Mnuchin, Treasury
(b) Dr. Tom Price, HHS
(c) Rick Perry, Energy
(d) Betsy DuVos, Education
(e) Rex Tillerson, State
(f) Jeff Sessions, Attorney General
(g) Scott Pruitt, EPA
(h) Andrew Puzder, Labor
(i) All will be confirmed
(2) Which team will win the 2017 Super Bowl?
(a) New England Patriots
(b) Dallas Cowboys
(c) Oakland Raiders
(d) New York Giants
(e) Pittsburgh Steelers
(f) Seattle Seahawks
(g) Atlanta Falcons
(h) Kansas City Chiefs
(i) None of the above
(3) Whom will President Trump nominate to succeed Janet Yellen as Chair of the Federal Reserve Board?
(a) Yellen herself, in a surprise
(b) Vice Chair Stanley Fischer
(c) White House official Gary Cohn of Goldman Sachs
(d) Carl Icahn
(e) Larry Kudlow
(f) Kevin Warsh
(g) Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan
(h) Rick Santelli
(i) None of the above
(4) Which of the following world leaders will not hold office on December 31, 2017? (multiple picks allowed)
(a) Queen Elizabeth II
(b) Pope Francis I
(c) Kim Jun Un of North Korea
(d) Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel
(e) President Erdogan of Turkey
(f) Angela Merkel of Germany
(g) Raul Castro of Cuba
(h) All will remain in office
(5) Which American company will suffer the most damage to its stock price by year's end in part as a result of President Trump's economic policies?
(d) Lockheed Martin
(h) None of the above will be hurt by Trump
(6) At year end, the interest rate of the 10-year Treasury notes will be:
(a) 4% or higher
(b) Between 3.5% and 4.0%
(c) Between 3.0% and 3.49%
(d) Below 3.0% but above 2.0%
(e) 2.0% or lower
(7) How many times with the Federal Reserve raise interest rates in 2017?
(a) Three times
(b) Four times
(e) Not at all
(f) Will lower rates at least once.
(8) Entering tax year 2018, the top US corporate tax rate will be:
(c) Above 20% but below 30%
(d) The same as it is now: 35%
(9) Will the ObamaCare Exchanges still be accepting new insurance customers in the fall of 2017?
(10) Hillary Clinton's next role will be:
(a) With the United Nations
(b) In academia
(c) As an author
(d) On corporate boards
(e) On non-profit boards
(f) On cable television
(g) None of the above
(11) The US Unemployment rate will rise significantly above 5% and stay there for the balance of 2017.
(12) The US will enter into a recession during 2017.
(13) US GDP growth for 2017 will be:
(a) Lower than 2016's
(b) Between 2.0% and 2.5%
(c) Above 2.5% but below 3%
(d) 3% or better.
(14) The "product (service) of the year" by most accounts:
(a) The I-Phone 8
(b) Artificial Intelligence machines of all sorts
(c) The anti-hacking "Death Ray"
(e) Self-driving long haul trucks
(g) "Companion" robots
(15) The Academy Award for Best Motion Picture:
(a) Manchester By the Sea
(c) La La Land
(g) Hacksaw Ridge.
(h) Hell or High Water
(g) None of the above
(16) The "leak of the year" will be:
(a) President Trump's Federal income tax returns
(b) Documentation of Trump enterprises' indebtedness to Russian creditors
(c) Communications showing Vatican cardinals' efforts to force Pope Francis to resign
(d) Huma Abedin's diaries
(e) Apple's plans for autonomous vehicles
(f) Steve Bannon's communications with white supremacists post-election
(g) Something else entirely
(17) The biggest, longest economic policy fight in Congress will be about:
(a) Raising the debt ceiling
(b) House GOP plans to impose a 'destination-based" corporate tax scheme that will exempt export and hit imports
(c) The Defense Department budget
(d) President Trump's infrastructure stimulus plan
(e) Replacing Obamacare
(18) President Trump will recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and relax sanctions in exchange for Russian military action directly against ISIS and bombing halt in Syria.
(19) Which of these companies' stock price will increase by the largest percentage in 2017?
(d) General Motors
(e) United Heath
(g) Delta Airlines
(j) Under Armor
(20) The United Kingdom will back off significantly from any "hard exit" from the European Union under pressure from financial interests.
(21) Which country or countries will the United States bomb or send regular ground combat troops (or both) into during the year?
(b) North Korea
(22) President Trump will issue an executive order suspending immigration from countries with an "ISIS threat presence" applying to all persons who cannot document that they are not Muslims, unless they undergo and pass an enhanced screening modeled on Israeli security practices.
(23) Which of these companies will be acquired in 2017?
(a) Anadarko Petroleum
(d) Pandora Media
(24) Before he leaves office, President Obama will issue a conditional pardon (citing President Carter's for Vietnam draft resistors) for broad categories of undocumented immigrants initially brought into the US as children.
The Dean's Choices: 1-h, 2-h, 3-j, 4-a, 5-c, 6-c, 7-a, 8-c, 9-a, 10-b, 11-a, 12-b, 13-c, 14-b, 15-c, 16-a, 17-b, 18-a, 19-j, 20-a, 21-a,c, 22-a, 23-b,c,d,f, 24-a.