A serious reading of the document published by the Eurozone Summit leaves the reader confused. It is so conditional that one cannot even guess what it will lead to. This is not even an MoU: measures need to be strengthened to get to that stage. These are "minimum requirements to start the negotiations with the Greek authorities... The risks of not concluding swiftly the negotiations remain fully with Greece."
The amount: 82-86 billion euros to be swallowed by indebted countries How will parliaments and public opinion react when they realize that the amount involved reaches almost $ 100 billion? How will the indebtedness of such large countries like France and Italy, who are already at or above 100% debt-to-GDP, be received by the markets? Is Europe filling a small hole only to dig a bigger one in other countries? Will poorer Eurozone countries agree to take their share of the European Stability mechanism?
It might not be as easy as it looks. I am expecting a serious fight at the Bundestag, the German Parliament. As for the Greek Parliament, will it indeed change the procedural code by July 22, approve the various changes of VAT and others? In other words, cave to a worse deal for Greece than the one that was refused in last weekend's referendum? The delays are tight: July 15 and 22.
The loopholes are plentiful
Many of the commitments enumerated by the press release are vague and contain no numbers. (pension, VAT,product market reforms, modernization of collective bargaining...
Privatization for 50 billion euros is as old as the Greek crisis in 2010. It was supposed to happen by 2013. There is no such thing as assets that could be sold for such a large amount except the electricity company that various Greek Governments resisted. Even the Athens airport deal that was supposed to be made two years ago with Qatar has not closed. The Pyres harbor has not been privatized.
All those are "minimum requirements."
Is Greek debt sustainable under this agreement?
The Eurozone release is non ambiguous. "There are serious concerns regarding sustainability of Greek debt". It amounts to 360 billion euros and will increase by a further 82-86 billion! The Commission will add 25 billion euros in the next 3-5 years "to fund investment and economic activity, including SMEs."
Is there any certainty that the third bail out will be more successful than the first two since it will be executed by a leftist and bad faith Government?
This is just one more steps into the rebuilding of a country that has not really delivered on its promises in the last five years. At least "the Government needs to consult and agree with the (creditor) Institutions on all draft legislation in relevant areas."
Greece is under high surveillance and its Prime Minister who needs to obtain Parliament approval has asked his people by referendum to refuse an agreement. I thought democracy was originally a Greek work.
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