The Nuclear Deal Decertification

The Nuclear Deal Decertification
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President Trump has never been a huge supporter of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, often dubbed the ‘Iran nuclear deal’. During both his campaigning for the presidency and after taking office, he repeatedly called for the USA to withdraw from the agreement, labelling it “one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into”.

Currently the deal, which the USA joined under President Obama in 2015, sees the USA, France, Germany, China, Russia, and the UK place economic sanctions on Iran in order to prevent it from building nuclear weapons by limiting its ability to enrich uranium. Consequently, Iran was limited to installing no more than 5,060 of the oldest and least efficient centrifuges at Natanz for 10 years. After 10 years, these centrifuge limitations will be lifted.

The economic sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN, the US and the EU have cost the state more than $160 billion in oil revenue since 2012 alone, causing the economy to contract by 6.6% in 2012. Due to Iran’s bleak economic situation and their preliminary compliance with the deal, the economic restrictions on the state were lifted. As a result, the US stopped enforcing secondary sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, which now produces an average of 3.8 million barrels a day, allowing Iran to increase its oil exports to states such as China, India, and Japan; with oil making up around 80% of Iran’s total exports.

However, it now appears that Iran haven’t been as compliant with the deal as previously believed, with reports on the state’s caches of low-enriched uranium and research on its remaining centrifuges having been omitted from public record. The state also tested ballistic missiles in late January 2017, raising concerns that Iran is continuing to covertly develop a nuclear weapons programme, and that Tehran is working with North Korea.

In September, at a meeting before the UN General Assembly, Trump critiqued the deal for allowing the “eventual construction of a nuclear program” in Iran. On Friday, Trump struck his first major blow to the deal by choosing not to certify that Tehran is complying with the agreement. The issue will now be opened up to Congress, who have a 60 day period to review the situation and decide whether to re-certify the deal. In particular, Trump is urging Congress to toughen requirements for Iran to continue receiving relief from US sanctions, asking lawmakers to amend legislation to highlight troubling non-nuclear Iranian behaviour not covered by the deal. Notably, Trump has singled out Iran's powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, authorising the US Treasury to sanction the guards as supporters of terrorism.

Whilst Trump’s actions have been well received by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who welcomed Trump's "courageous" decision to confront “Iran's terrorist regime”, European officials have been highly critical of Trump’s actions, categorically ruling out re-negotiating the deal. Meanwhile, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani stated in own address, that Mr Trump’s comments were baseless and that “the nation of Iran will never kneel down, the nation of Iran will never give up”.

As General Joseph Dunford stated, one of the major concerns surrounding Trump’s decision to withdraw from the multilateral deal is that doing so will significantly undermine the USA’s credibility and hinder its ability to strike security agreements in the future. In particular, if the Trump administration is successful in withdrawing from the agreement this could further escalate the nuclear tensions between the USA and Kim Jong Un, as Iran’s ballistic missile program has been relying on North Korean military technology since 2015. This is especially worrying given that North Korea has recently issued a fresh threat against Guam, claiming a “salvo of missiles” will be unleashed on its waters if Donald Trump continues his “provocations”.

Given the importance that the Iran nuclear deal holds for the future of international security, the task that Congress now faces is immense.

Written by Natasha Rega-Jones, edited by Keval Dattani

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