Despite the McCain/Palin campaign's questioning of the accuracy of the polls, Senator Obama appears to be in good shape heading into the election. Nonetheless, this has been a very different election cycle, and the Obama campaign's two year marathon will not be over until the votes are counted, no matter what the polls say.
Clearly, Senator Obama is in a better position than Senator McCain. He has been consistently ahead for several weeks both nationally and where it really counts -- in key state polls. But the Senator and others have cautioned that this is--to paraphrase Yogi Berra -- not over until it's over.
The real October surprise as has been mentioned elsewhere on Huffington Post could be complacency. No voter wants to think that their vote is being taken for granted. There is a sense of unease and anxiety about the state of the nation. We are in much worse shape than we were four and eight years ago.
The deficit is sky high. The market is cratering. Unemployment is rising, and there is consensus that we are in a recession just a question of how severe it is and how long it will last. People are not only nervous about losing their jobs and their retirement plans, many have already lost their homes. You know that things are desperate when Ford stock sells for less than a gallon of gas.
We are fighting three wars. We can't seem to come to closure on the status of forces agreement in Iraq in part because the Iranians are putting pressure on the Iraqi Government not to reach an agreement with us. The way ahead politically in Iraq is shaky, and the other Presidential team can only repeat the refrain that the surge is working.
Afghanistan is bad and getting worse. Our military commanders are asking for 20,000 more troops, and because of what we should now start calling the "long war" in Iraq, it is going to be tough to provide those troops without putting further strain on an already spent military--by spent I don't mean the US military isn't up to the job. I have no doubt they will do whatever they are asked and do it well, but they have been asked repeatedly over the past five plus years to step up, and as good as they are, they are only human.
The other "long war" against terrorists is tough and getting tougher. Al Qaeda and its Taliban hosts operate in the nether world of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan and its border with Afghanistan. The warlords in the FATA seem not only intent on remaining autonomous, they also appear to have an interest in bringing down the new Pakistani Government. That may not be the most immediate problem for the Pakistani Government. Their economy is truly in a meltdown, and there is not a lot of spare cash among the international community outside the IMF to help them out.
North Korea has the bomb--several--and Iran seems bent on getting one. How to stop them from acquiring nuclear weapons capability is not an issue that can be handled by slogans and standing on faux principles like the US will not meet directly with the Iranians unless they agree to certain terms. This is a real threat, and we must do all we can to confront it, from meeting at any and all levels to offering carrots and sticks.
When looking at these and the many other problems facing the nation, it is easy to understand the anxiety of voters. It is also easy to understand why the polls are favoring Senator Obama. He is by far the best candidate, but even so, when people are anxious, to quote Willie Loman, attention must be paid. And that is why acting as if this race is over may be the biggest threat to the change we are all hoping for and need next Tuesday.
If curiosity can kill a cat, then complacency could kill an election. Make no mistake; the nation cannot afford another four years of variations on a theme by George W. Bush. Whether at home or abroad, change is called for. And the change that Senator Obama is offering is what we need to face our many challenges. This is truly an historic election, and we cannot afford to let down.
So, no complacency allowed. We have to get through Tuesday--that's 4 November-- and then if things work out they way we hope they will, we have to roll up our sleeves and get behind the new Administration as it makes progress and history. Joe the Democratic voter must heard.
Stay frosty.