It was announced on Wednesday that Russia will formally withdraw out of the International Criminal Court (ICC), a move deeply troubling for the future of Syria and Europe as a whole. The decision comes as another step for Russia to distance itself of war crimes resulting in the country’s annexation of Crimea two years ago, their continued alliance with the Assad regime in Syria and the potential for additional annexations. Putin’s plan for the future is more apparent than ever and is closer to becoming realized.
SYRIA:
It is no surprise the Assad regime has been able to continue its bloody war due to the assistance it is receiving from Russia. Recently, there has been an increase in bombings throughout Aleppo and Northern Syria, in which the regime claims they are targeting rebels and militants. However, no matter what Russia and Assad claim to be their objectives, this increase has in fact targeted hospitals (including a children’s hospital), schools and residential neighborhoods.
The offensive this week is thought to be in response to the American presidential elections and following a phone call between Putin and President-elect Donald Trump. Bashar al-Assad has even praised the results of the election. This is a clear indication of Trump’s plan in Syria, which spells disaster for the Syrian people and a win for Russia to keep Assad in power, thereby keeping control of their prized Mediterranean port.
UKRAINE/CRIMEA:
There are a number of reasons why Russia moved to annex Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Primarily, it followed the notion that Ukraine’s new government would join NATO and they would lose control of the Russian port on the Black sea. The port provides access to mainland Europe, an important tool for trade and possible future offensives. The second notion is that Putin wants to expand Russian borders to territories than once belonged to the former Soviet Union. It also doesn’t hurt that there are trillions of dollars worth of oil and gas in the region. The “civil war” continues on the Ukrainian/Crimean border with Ukraine receiving assistance from the United States military. We can expect that assistance to stop following inauguration day.
MOLDOVA/BULGARIA:
Last week’s election of Donald Trump implicates an increase of diplomacy with Russia. On the surface, that could be a good thing. However, putting the dots together, a Trump presidency for Putin provides Russia an opportunity to continue annexations without fear of military intervention from the West.
This leads us to the importance of the results from both Moldova and Bulgaria’s elections last Sunday. Both country’s elections were won by Russian-backed politicians who have interests in strengthening ties with Russia versus the European Union. Moldova’s President-elect, Igor Dodon, ran on a campaign of pursuing closer ties with Russia, who placed an embargo on Moldovan goods after the country signed an association agreement with the EU. Dodon defeated Maia Sandu, who ran on a campaign of anti-corruption. Following widespread protests, Dodon echoed Trump’s message and called for calm, vowing to be a “president for all Moldovans”, regardless of their political views.
Bulgaria’s President-elect, Rumen Radev, ran on a ticket of anti-migration and putting an end to EU-sanctions against Russia. As with Trump and many other nationalists, Radev blames migrants for many of the country’s financial issues and has vowed not to make the Balkan country a "migrant ghetto". It should be noted that Bulgaria's constitution makes the president's job (a five-year term) mostly ceremonial, but it still provides a powerful platform to influence policy, veto legislation and sign international treaties. Bulgaria has more than 230 miles of coastline along the Black Sea.
LITHUANIA/LATVIA/ESTONIA and other Northern Europe countries:
The people in the Baltics are nervous. And they have every right to be. Trump was on record implying he wouldn’t come to militarily aid the nations in the face of Russian aggression, because they “have not fulfilled their obligations to us {NATO}”. And even prior to the result of our election, the Baltic states have seen a buildup of Russian military along their borders, including the placement of a nuclear-capable missile system near Poland. There are also reports of Russian submarines along the coasts of other Northern European countries like Sweden and Finland, further increasing tensions to the region.
While this is a brief piece on an enormous issue, keep your eyes and ears open on the future movement of Russia. Many pieces are in play and these recent victories signify we could be re-drawing the map of Europe and Russia sooner than we think.
