Are we going to see a bubble in the Clean Energy Space in the next 15 years? originally appeared on Quora - the knowledge sharing network where compelling questions are answered by people with unique insights.
Answer by David Arfin, Creator of SolarLease, formerly VP at SolarCity, on Quora.
Nope. A "bubble" suggests massive growth then a burst. Of course some companies and trends will indeed be overhyped and will disappoint while others will experience tremendous and continuous growth.
The trajectory of clean energy industry expansion and dips will depend on three primary factors: technology, public policy and investment. From this, business models will be created and evolve that leverages (or influences) the three primary factors.
Technology: growth in solar, wind, storage, electric vehicles, carbon reduction, energy efficiency will all require better, faster, smaller, smarter, data driven technological innovation. This will come from physics, chemistry, earth science, engineering, data science, etc. The rate of change will depend on how global economies choose to motivate the best minds and other resources to enable breakthroughs and progress.
Public Policy: policy comes in many shapes, sizes and flavors. They range from direct incentives (rebates, tax credits, Feed in Tariffs), to energy policies (net metering, community solar, rewarding efficiency) to pricing externalities (taxing carbon) to how infrastructure is funded (expanding roads for urban sprawl vs. putting in EV lanes or EVE charging stations). Of great concern to the clean tech industry is having stability in policy. Two great successes for stability can be found in the California Solar Initiative with a 10-step plan to reduce rebates and another in the long-term extension of the Investment Tax Credit in 2008 and in 2015.
Investment: achieving breakthrough technology and market deployment requires money and people who are provided tools to enable growth.
With these three factors in mind, entrepreneurs and intra-preneurs can create new businesses and industries that leverage the opportunities afforded by technology, policy and investment.