Mainline politicians of both parties, as well media hosts and political pundits, seem continually surprised by Donald Trump's rise and persistence as a candidate. After he insulted Mexico and immigrants, they thought his candidacy would be finished. After he disparaged John McCain's war service, they predicted his campaign would implode. After he insulted women in the first debate, they predicted a sharp drop in his poll numbers. Clearly, the "political class" is unable to see something important. It is a blindness of their own making.
The current political scene can be explained, at least in part, by the failure of elected officials to deal effectively with three failures in our government system.
The first is cash. National political campaigns are awash with money, and the amount raised and spent has been characterized by ever-increasing size and secretiveness. Much of the American public is fed up with the tendency of big donors to dominate campaign spending and distrustful of the impact those contributions have on the decisions of the winners. If you're angry at the power of big money in politics, how likable it must be to have a candidate that will fund his own campaign and thus owe nobody anything if he wins.
The second is compromise. National politics has become increasingly polarized. The middle has shrunk, squeezed by extreme views on the right and left. Compromise is equated with weakness, and the failure to find common ground is applauded by vocal partisans. The result is legislative gridlock. National problems fester and the electorate grows increasingly cynical that government can work. How comforting it must be then to have a candidate who seems outside this political process.
The third is courage. Courage is taking a stand opposed to what people expect and want you to do, but politicians on the left and right seem to make decisions by focus, lobby, or protest group, afraid to make tough calls unpopular with their base. How refreshing then to have a candidate who says exactly what he feels and could care less who it upsets or what it costs him.
The Trump phenomenon seems of most concern to establishment Republicans who desperately want to regain the White House. But Democrats who eye his rise with disdain, amusement and confidence in their own 2016 prospects miss something important. The triple failure hurts them as well. It has also sparked the rise of Bernie Sanders, and if he does not emerge as the Democratic nominee, some Democrats may well vote for whatever Republican has captured the damn-the-politicians banner, even Trump. Even if they do not, the party may find it hard to energize Independents who see in their candidate only more of the same.
None of this was inevitable, but it is state of affairs both political parties have brought upon themselves. There is still time to fix it before 2016, but not much. There are still steps they can take, but it's not likely they will.
A candidate or a Congress willing to push for meaningful campaign finance reform, which probably means a Constitutional amendment, could begin to persuade voters that the "political class" can fix itself. The willingness of a candidates and elected officials to take middle-of-the-road stands on other issues, such as immigration, infrastructure, tax fairness, and entitlement reform could give hope to some voters that compromise is still a possibility. So too could a commitment to help States take redistricting out of the hands of partisan politics, a step toward making House seats more competitive and those running for Congress more willing to find common ground.
Such steps will, of course, take courage. This entails a willingness to lose an election for the chance to gain a victory for common sense, political reform, and moving politics away from the extremes.
Without serious work on the problems of cash and compromise, aided by courage, Donald Trump may actually become the Republican nominee. Without some movement to address the failures of the political system during the general election campaign, he could become president. Of course, absent such changes, he will have the same Congress we have now, and more gridlock may greet his own attempts to govern. That will, of course, only intensify Americans' disenchantment with the political system. If any or all of this worries you, and if it happens, the last thing you should be is surprised.