Damir Sagoli/Reuters
While some political insiders proclaimed that the isolationist philosophy of "America First has been vindicated on the world stage,” upon his return to the United States, President Donald Trump’s two-week trip to Asia has been widely regarded as a made-for-TV sideshow.
Much has been written about Trump’s Asia tour. However, throughout the duration of the trip, all eyes were on Beijing.
Most international media and former top security officials declared that Xi Jinping played Trump perfectly, stoking his notorious ego. During their time together, the two leaders discussed a range of topics from the DPRK nuclear problem to bilateral trade. Trump's first visit to China was also aimed at concluding investment deals; he was accompanied by representatives from dozens of major companies. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping signed contracts worth about $ 250 billion. In particular, these contracts dealt with the sale of aircraft, cars, liquid natural gas and bovine meat produced in the United States. China agreed to increase imports from the United States. Beijing has also widely opened the door to the Chinese energy market for US LNG, claiming funding for a major gas project in Alaska.
Reports also indicate that Trump and Xi Jinping established a fairly strong personal relationship. The Chinese leader may have wooed the U.S. president, but the efforts were mutual. Trump made some grand gestures of his own. Xi Jinping was presented with a video disc, in which 10-year-old Arabella, daughter of Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, performs songs in Chinese.
The most obvious thing on all minds was how Trump and Xi Jinping would play the situation in North Korea, which was an ongoing factor throughout the entire Asia tour. On 8 November Trump, speaking in the South Korean parliament, said that all "responsible countries" should join forces to isolate North Korea. Trump also called on Russia and China to sever their economic ties with the DPRK and to reduce diplomatic relations with Pyongyang. On November 12, he wrote on Twitter:
As previously stated by U.S. Secretary of Rex Tillerson, there are "clear signs" that the sanctions imposed on North Korea have an effect on it. For his part, Xi Jinping said, "I wish that under the new situation the Chinese side would make efforts with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) side to promote the relations between the two parties and the two countries to sustainable soundness and stable development."
While Trump continues to instigate provocative interactions with North Korea, the world is witnessing the beginning of an open economic competition between China and the United States at the most critical time in both nation’s histories. China is an economic leader of the era of the future, stung by the fact that its economic potential has not yet been fully realized in political influence on the world.
All of that will be changing rapidly, however, if the big plans Xi Jinping announced earlier this year in Davos at the World Economic Forum come to fruition. In his it was clear that China aims to dethrone the U.S. and become the most powerful country in the world. It was there that he advocated for joint development against protectionism, and to focus on development. It marked the conceptual manifestation of Chinese leadership and the popular concept of "One Belt, One Road.”
China intends to become the world's leading economy by 2050, said Xi Jinping, at the opening of the Congress of the Communist Party, which is held every five years.
According to him, "an important period of strategic development opportunities is still going on in China,” and "the prospects are iridescent, but the challenges are serious."
If we take a detailed look at the actions and progress of China we can see that Xi Jingping’s vision is becoming a reality.
The Chinese economy is developing day by day and projecting a positive image of continued growth. According to experts, China accounts for 15 percent of the total world economy and may represent 25-30 in the future. Last year, the Chinese economy grew by 6.7 percent, and in the second quarter of this year by 6.9% percent.
They created a powerful financial system based on several large banks controlled by the state. Today, the list of the world's largest banks for assets include four Chinese institutions and only one American. Even if the number of banks were at an equal level, China did not have to make great efforts to be a leader in competition with the United States. The Chinese banking system also became the largest in terms of assets by the end of 2016.
They’ve accumulated large gold and foreign exchange reserves, including in U.S. dollars, which is its instrument of pressure on the US debt market. In the American treasuries, until recently China had more than 1.2 trillion dollars. Real gold reserves in China are estimated at more than 10,000 tons.
China created months-long stocks of all strategic material resources, including energy resources. They’ve bought around the world a practical full set of modern technologies and actively apply them in practical production. It is an actual world monopolist in the production of rare-earth metals and actively uses this monopoly to compete with uncompromising competitors in the acquisition of additional modern technologies.
The U.S. lost to China when it comes to one of the main allies in the region: Taiwan.
More than a billion Chinese living on the mainland consider Taiwan a Chinese province, and 23 million Taiwanese chose a democratic government and consider themselves an independent state. According to the "One China" strategy, Beijing refuses to maintain diplomatic relations with countries that recognize Taiwan. According to estimates by the Pentagon, the U.S. is no longer able to protect Taiwan even by military means in case of conflict with China. Relations between the two Chinas significantly improved between 2009-2016. The volume of bilateral trade reached $179.6 billion in 2016, a dramatic increase since the early 1990s, when this figure was much less—only 8 billion. China is Taiwan's largest trading partner. The Chinese administration also continues to strengthen economic cooperation and contacts at the level of high-ranking officials.
The Chinese are also challenging American military superiority. They have created a modern high-tech army and bolstered their forces to compete with the U.S. Navy. Their nuclear potential is completely unknown, but appears to be sufficient to cause unacceptable damage to the enemy. By 2035, Xi promised to complete the modernization of the military personnel and equipment in order to turn the PRC army into the armed forces of "advanced world level,” and by 2050, to make it the most powerful military force in the world. All this, together with the developed economy, should enable Beijing to become a "global leader in the overall strength of the nation and international influence."
Chinese influence is extending beyond the developing worlds and Eastern Europe. China has developed transport land routes to Europe and also financially influences Europe, the natural ally of the United States. Without regular injections of money into the debt market of Europe from China, it may lose stability. With a large number of countries, China has concluded an agreement on mutual currency SWAPs, striking out the mediation of the dollar in mutual settlements. They began issuing external debt, denominated in CNY, and announced the further acquisition of oil only for yuan.
The PRC intends to increase its role in global governance; this trend has already clearly emerged. However, the Chinese are positioning themselves as partners. In Beijing, the word "leadership" is avoided so as not to cause associations with U.S. policy and reputation as an aggressive superpower. The Chinese administration likes to stress that it does not impose anything on anyone and is not going to act from a position of strength.
China has purposefully and strategically entered a new era that promises the country a central role at the top of our world order. For Trump, China is now more important than Russia. Even national security adviser to Jimmy Carter Zbigniew Brzezinski, before his death, said in his last interview to the Russian edition, that China is a very important player in the world and that whoever can negotiate with them will be the main actor on the world stage. Indeed, for both sides, Beijing becomes the main dialogue partner, even though the nature of Russian-Chinese and US-Chinese relations is completely different.
Despite the optimistic statements by Trump and Xi this fall, the US-China relations are unlikely to be characterized by friendship and despite the intertwining of the U.S.-Chinese economies between Beijing and Washington, there are too many contradictions. Breakthrough agreements, which will remove all problematic issues between the U.S. and China, would be difficult to negotiate. Recent Chinese diplomatic victories are due to Beijing’s ability to conduct quiet and thoughtful policy; the country is increasingly asserting its right to play with the U.S. at least on equal footing—for now.