Three Proxy Wars To Watch in 2018

Three Proxy Wars To Watch in 2018
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TAJIKISTAN, THE ARCTIC AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

By Dr Maha Hosain Aziz and William de Wolff

One of the world’s first proxy war was perhaps the Egyptian-Ottoman conflict in the late 1830s to early 1840s, with each side backed by a coterie of allies. Today, proxy wars continue in places like Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan. These countries are effectively the battleground for superpowers (or aspiring ones) vying for long-term influence. But what are the less obvious proxy wars to watch in the coming year? Here are three to keep track of in 2018 – a Central Asian country, a resource-rich region and one growing area of the tech industry:

First, consider Tajikistan which is labelled by some as the next Afghanistan. Yes, it has averaged 7% growth in the past five years, but it’s also severely hindered by power shortages, weak institutions, notable poverty and its position as a transit point for illegal drugs from Afghanistan. It also has the potential to become the world’s next major terrorism hotspot (it’s apparently already the “leading exporter of suicide bombers” to ISIS). Now throw in the regional and global powers who are trying to exert their influence – Russia perhaps may be in the lead given its historically entrenched role financially and with security, but China more recently has made major advances both economically and militarily. Then consider how long-time rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia have also been leveraging their soft power – Saudi Arabia is offering $35 million to create schools (including religious ones) while Iran has been building on its “civilizational ties” through several major industrial projects, including a $260 million hydroelectric plan. A weak economy, the terrorism (especially ISIS) connection and two sets of rivals vying for power makes for a complex proxy war in this Central Asian state.

Second, let’s revisit the Arctic region – home to iron ore, 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas. Post-Cold War, the US, Russia and six other circumpolar countries have managed to control this territory relatively peacefully through the Arctic Council. But now, things are heating up quite literally – the region is warming twice as fast as the rest of world. This means newly accessible resources will be up for grabs and could lead to another US-Russia Cold War. Okay, this has been speculated for awhile (e.g. back in 2015 and even 2008). However, lately Russia seems to be reasserting its military prowess with even more plans (e.g. the new base “The Arctic Trefoil”). Meanwhile, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis has noted Russia’s “aggressive” expansion and US marines did train there this year for possible Arctic conflict; President Trump has also called on companies to pursue new drilling projects in keeping with his America First Energy Plan and anti-environment views. According to the Arctic Council Chairmanship of Finland in its February report, the Council’s future could be at risk because of these two superpowers. This is clearly another superpower proxy war that needs monitoring.

Third, and perhaps most unpredictable, is the growing proxy war that is virtual – artificial intelligence (AI). According to President Putin, the country who leads in AI in the future “will be the ruler of the world”. He might be right – and the race is on. The US has been leading the way so far in AI research (thanks to Microsoft, IBM and Google). China has been crystal clear about its global superpower ambitions (see Chinese President’s Xi Jinping’s speech from yesterday) and this extends to its plans to dominate AI by 2030. Others believe India is also a big AI player that cannot be ignored. As superpowers and companies fight for control, it will be critical to monitor such tech, whether it is used in business, medical research or even warfare. Tesla’s Elon Musk has been quite vocal in insisting that AI must be regulated, especially given he feels the AI proxy war could lead to World War Three; he has even called for a global ban on AI weaponry. Could we see covert AI espionage between countries and companies or such tech falling into the hands of terrorists? It’s not inconceivable. There is potential for this proxy war to go very wrong.

These three particular proxy wars involve state actors – superpowers or smaller countries – and non-state actors including tech firms, drilling companies or terrorist groups. How these state and non-state actors clash will really determine how these proxy wars unfold in 2018. Could they develop into a more pronounced conflict or even the next major war? Anything is possible. After all, it’s a post-hegemonic world where even global leadership is up for grabs. So, let’s see.

Dr Aziz is a professor in the NYU GSAS Program in International Relations. William de Wolff is a J.D. candidate at Fordham’s School of Law after receiving his MA in International Relations from NYU.

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