The one year anniversary of Iran nuclear deal with the Western power is an appropriate time to take stock in the accomplishments of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). Perhaps most important, however, is that we use this occasion as an opportunity time to remind ourselves that the deal is a 10+ year trust building process between Tehran and the West; between the Tehran and its neighbors; and between factions in Tehran, and it will take a concerted effort by all parties to see this deal to conclusion.
How did we get to a deal? Much has been said about Iran building social capital as a result of the deal― that reengagement with the world economy, increased educational opportunities, and an appropriate role in the region will over time increase Iran’s social capital.
I argue that Iran has always had tremendous social capital — politically engaged populace, strong economic base and rich history which makes the deal possible. Specifically, the engaged population — directs the supreme leader in a direction to allow the government of President Rouhani to negotiate with the United Sates.The people of Iran recognized the damage of sanctions and spoke with one voice, demanding sanctions be lifted. It’s right to say that President Hassan Ruhani and his foreign minster Mohammad Javad Zarif simply fulfilled the supreme leader’s demand.
What has JCPOA accomplished?
It’s best to look at this in the trajectory of Ruhani’s accomplishments over the past three years. Economic stability — generally positive growth trajectory compared to the time of former President Ahmadinejad, exchange rate stability, much lower inflation, greater financial resources and private sector engagement are some of the achievements.
In many ways the JCPOA enabled the economic stability and endowed Iran with political capital to be a positive force in the region. But the difficulties to implement the deal, challenged Rouhani’s government authority to play a role he was seeking to play in the regional affairs.
Too much of an emphasis on JCPOA at year one is foolish as it’s a multi-year process of trust-building so it’s far too early to judge the deal as tempting as it may be to do so. The supreme leader approval enabled the JCPOA and now similar vision will be needed for Iran to pursue the necessary changes to harness the full power of the deal.
Expectations must be sober and realistic.
Speaking of realistic, the situation is not perfect and much needs to be done to implement the deal and to ensure Tehran is a constructive player in the region. The international community is a bit confused and rightly so because there are mixed messages emanating from Tehran. Some voices are skeptical of the deal and have already said it is a failure. It’s naïve to think Iran’s problems would evaporate overnight. Other voices are pushing for non-constructive policies in the region that diffuse tension and cannot be ignored. The neighbors still seek out the constructive voices in Tehran and it doesn’t mean only reformists — it can be anyone advocates for economic stability and security in the region.
There was a consensus around sanctions relief, and may the same consensus needs to support the regional talks.
The next step is one of Iran’s choosing — if the leaders are patient, articulate a clear domestic and international vision, and most importantly, take the difficult steps to enact such a vision, Iran and the region will be on the road to greater prosperity and security. If these leaders rest on their laurels, choose confrontation over engagement, and give in to the status quo, then my prognosis for the deal and more importantly the region is negative.
This article has been syndicated from AlHayat newspaper.