Younger Americans' views on gender identity-based bathroom policies are the polar opposite of older Americans'. Voters who say they'll never support a candidate may end up changing their minds. And the UK is split about leaving the European Union. This is HuffPollster for Thursday, April 21, 2016.
AMERICANS SPLIT BY AGE ON LETTING TRANSGENDER PEOPLE USE BATHROOM OF CHOICE - Daniel Trotta: “Transgender Americans may find greater acceptance in the future, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll that shows young adults and women more open to people using public bathrooms matching their gender identity. The issue is polarizing much of the United States, notably in North Carolina, where big businesses and rock stars are boycotting the state over a new law requiring people to use the public restroom matching their birth certificate. Americans aged 18 to 29 favor letting transgender people use the restroom of their identity by a 2-to-1 ratio. Among Americans aged 60 or more, the ratio was 2-to-1 in reverse with people saying restroom use should be mandated by the gender on one's birth certificate….Overall, the public is roughly split, with 43 percent saying they are closer to the view that people should use public restrooms ‘according to the biological sex on their birth certificate’ compared to 41 percent who opt for ‘according to the gender with which they identify.’” [Reuters]
VOTERS DON'T ALWAYS MEAN IT WHEN THEY SAY THEY WON'T SUPPORT A CANDIDATE - HuffPollster: "Faced with a historically unpopular 2016 field, most voters can’t see themselves supporting Donald Trump, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or Hillary Clinton, according to a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll….As a follow-up question from the same survey shows, though, some of those anti-Clinton voters changed their minds when presented with Trump as the alternative. 'I’d never vote for them,' in other words, often means, 'unless the other guy would be even worse.'...Seventy-eight percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters agreed that 'the worst Democratic candidate for president is still better than the Republican candidates'; 77 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning voters said 'the worst Republican candidate for president is still better than the Democratic candidates'….Just 15 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said they couldn’t support Clinton as the nominee, while an equal percentage couldn’t see themselves backing Sanders.The GOP is more divided, with fewer than a third saying they could support all three of their party’s remaining candidates.” [HuffPost]
THERE'S A REASON NEW YORK POLLS WERE DEAD ON - HuffPolllster: "In some ways New York is a difficult place to poll….About 40 percent of the population lives in the city, and about 65 percent of the state’s population is in the general metro area. Pollsters have to dial carefully to account for the city bias. The closed primary, however, makes the state a bit easier for pollsters. Only registered partisans were eligible to vote in the Republican and Democratic primaries, leaving independents without a say…..Another benefit: Many of the pollsters in New York are very familiar with the state’s politics and population. Of the eight pollsters who polled in both primaries within the last week before the election, three are at colleges located in the state….the NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll had the lowest error….What stands out most is that the second-most-accurate poll is an automated phone poll: Emerson’s polling relies completely on recorded voice technology polling….These pollsters should be doing victory laps." [HuffPost]
THE UK IS SPLIT ON A REFERENDUM TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION - Jess McHugh: "With a referendum looming June 23, the gap between pro- and anti-EU campaigns has steadily narrowed, with 44 percent in favor of staying in the EU and 42 percent in support of leaving, according to Financial Times' live tracker of Brexit polling information. The vote will be sealed by the remaining 14 percent of voters who are undecided. Other polls, including a recent survey from the Economist, put the two camps even closer, at one point tied in a dead heat with 39 percent support each and 22 percent undecided. Pressure from Obama and other world leaders could help sway the minds of voters, despite criticism from local leadership such as London Mayor Boris Johnson, who has said the U.S. president has no right to advise the British people on this matter." [IBTimes]
RECENT POLL RELEASES
-Donald Trump leads in Connecticut, with John Kasich in second place. [Quinnipiac]
-Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders by double digits in Pennsylvania. [Monmouth]
-The first survey of the Delaware primaries shows Trump leading the GOP field with 55 percent of the vote and Clinton leading by 7 among Democrats. [Gravis]
-Sanders is just 3 percentage points behind Clinton in a national primary poll. [Morning Consult]
-Democrat Russ Feingold leads Republican Ron Johnson by 10 points in an early poll of Wisconsin’s Senate race. [StNorbert]
-Chris Van Hollen is leading in the race for Maryland’s open Senate seat. [PPP]
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THURSDAY'S 'OUTLIERS' - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Donald Trump needs 63 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination. [WashPost]
-Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley lay out a roadmap that could still lead Trump to a majority. [Center for Politics]
-Brian Ross Adams looks at the opportunities and limitations of using Facebook for polling. [Campaigns & Elections]
-About half of U.S. Latinos are under the age of 18. [Pew]
-The number of Americans who own stocks matches an all-time low of 52 percent. [Gallup]
-Opinions on marijuana have changed drastically in the last 50 years. [HuffPost]
-A majority of Americans say they support legalizing marijuana [CBS]