Trump Has Especially Provoked Talk among African Americans, Young Women, Democrats
The latest Russian influence revelations may be dominating the American conversation this week, but merely the dawn of the Trump era itself had already unleashed a conversational tsunami about the presidency. The number of Americans talking about the President’s job performance on any given day has nearly doubled to 28% in the second quarter of 2017 from 15% a year earlier. The level was a bit higher, 30%, in the first quarter, when President Donald Trump was inaugurated.
% of US adults 18-69 talking each day about president’s job performance
Engagement Labs has been tracking daily word of mouth conversations for more than a decade, including presidential approval since mid-2009. This includes both offline, water cooler conversations as well as social media. In no prior quarter have so many people engaged in discussions about Presidential performance as in the first quarter of 2017, although the talk reached 28% in the fourth quarter of 2012 when President Barack Obama was reelected.
Conversations are proven to be extremely important indicators of future choices that voters and consumers will make. Indeed, a sharp increase in negative conversations about Hillary Clinton after the release of FBI Director James Comey’s letter last October about Clinton’s emails was a key indicator that her candidacy was in trouble.
% increase Q2 2017 vs. Q2 2016 in % of each segment talking about presidential performance
Compared to a year ago, the groups driving the change are African Americans whose talk levels have grown by 155%, Democrats (+142%), and adult women under 30 (+123%). The change among Democrats puts them ahead of Republicans in their frequency of discussing the president. This is especially striking since throughout the Obama presidency it was Republicans who were more focused conversationally on presidential performance. Republicans haven’t declined, but they have only increased modestly, while Democrats are highly energized. The fact that the “out” partisans were higher both under Obama and now under Trump supports the idea that much of the talk about job performance is critical rather than supportive.
% of party identifiers talking each day about presidential job performance
Although their talk levels have grown, African Americans and women under 30 are not among the groups most engaged in discussions of presidential performance. The most engaged conversationalists regarding the president’s performance are older men (39%) and women (36%) in their 60s, followed by Democrats (34%), college graduates (33%), and northeasterners (30%).
% of segments talking each day about presidential performance
Why are these groups so engaged in Presidential conversations? The other major topics they are talking about offer some clues. People in their 60s stand out for being more likely than average to talk about health insurance and health care, suggesting the potential repeal of Obamacare is a significant factor for them. Women under 30 are extremely engaged in conversations about our education system, job security, and personal finances. The vulnerability of older people and younger women to changes in the social safety net could explain their rising conversation levels about President Trump.
Meantime, several groups are rather unengaged in discussions of presidential performance: the least educated, Hispanics, and men and women in their 30s.
With two consecutive quarters of high talk levels about the President, a key question is whether this pace can be sustained for much longer. The answer to that question will depend on the trajectory of the Trump presidency, and especially the progress and outcome of investigations regarding Russian interference in the election and related issues. But if the current trend continues, it suggests an important change in the presence of politics in our daily lives.