WASHINGTON ― It’s one of Donald Trump’s favorite proofs of his success: the 13.3 million votes he won in the Republican primaries ― more than war hero Dwight Eisenhower, more than party icon Ronald Reagan.
The claim is true, but just as true, and nearly as meaningless, as the fact that Trump also received more primary votes than presidents Abraham Lincoln or George Washington, who ran before primaries were even invented.
“It’s true in one sense,” Rice University historian Douglas Brinkley said of Trump’s boast. “But it’s false in the sense of reality.”
The United States’ voting age population is two and a half times larger than it was when Eisenhower won the GOP nomination in 1952 (in a brokered convention, actually, after finishing second in total primary votes to Robert Taft). Just as important, many more states now hold binding contests during the primary season than they did in 1980, when Reagan and runner-up George H.W. Bush actively participated in 34 primaries and caucuses. In contrast, all but three states held contests this year.
“[Trump’s] trying to pretend he’s the strongest nominee in the history of the Republican Party,” said Texas-based GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak. “I think it’s clear that that’s not true.”
The reality TV star-cum-presumptive GOP presidential nominee’s campaign did not respond to The Huffington Post’s queries about his claims. On the stump and in interviews, though, Trump frequently talks about his success in the primaries.
“I got more votes than anybody in the history of primary elections,” Trump told Breitbart News last month. “Nobody’s ever even gotten close, the Republicans. I got more than Ronald Reagan, I got more than Richard Nixon, I got more than Dwight Eisenhower, I got more than anybody.”
“[Trump's] trying to pretend he’s the strongest nominee in the history of the Republican Party. I think it’s clear that that’s not true.”
- Texas-based GOP consultant Matt Mackowiak
That boast, while technically accurate, ignores that millions more Americans of voting age are alive today than even four years ago, let alone four decades ago.
In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 7.7 million votes in the Republican contests in a country that had more than 80 million fewer people of voting age. Further, more than a dozen states held non-binding caucuses that the candidates largely ignored. Adjusting for the population increase and the number of meaningful primary contests today, Reagan likely would have won close to 14 million votes ― significantly more than Trump received, according to a HuffPost analysis.
Adjusting George W. Bush’s 12 million votes from 2000 the same way suggests he might have won 14.5 million votes. And adjusting 1952’s numbers, Eisenhower might have received 13.6 million votes, while Taft might have won 18.6 million ― both more than Trump received.
But the biggest GOP winner in modern times, according to the HuffPost analysis, was Richard Nixon in 1960, when the sitting vice president won 5 million votes in just 13 contests ― suggesting Nixon could have won 25.6 million votes with today’s voting population and primary schedule.
“Trump is right that he’s done well, but he exaggerates the historic nature of it,” historian Brinkley said. “The fact of the matter is that he’s barely got enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.”
Josh Putnam, a University of Georgia political scientist and an expert on the parties’ nominating processes, said making comparisons across the decades is difficult. Some states had open primaries at one time, and closed primaries at another. Races that drag on have higher interest and turnout than quickly decided ones. And the number of candidates matters, too, Putnam said, adding that he gives credit to Trump for accumulating his vote total despite a crowded field.
Still, the boast of most primary votes ever is misleading, Putnam agreed. “Yeah, that claim from Trump only ever went so deep,” he said.
Mackowiak said more important than the number of votes Trump received was his proportion of the total. According to the RealClearPolitics, Trump’s 13.3 million votes in the GOP contests constitute about 47 percent of those cast.
“We’ve almost never had a nominee who didn’t win a majority of the votes. Romney, McCain, Bush ― they all had the majority,” Mackowiak said, referring to the last three GOP presidential nominees.
Brinkley, though, suspects Trump’s boasts are not necessarily designed for close observers of politics. “Trump is a student of the great American art form of exaggeration,” he said. “Trump is trying to create a perception for people that aren’t following it closely.”
Editor’s note: Donald Trump regularly incites political violence and is a serial liar, rampant xenophobe, racist, misogynist and birther who has repeatedly pledged to ban all Muslims ― 1.6 billion members of an entire religion ― from entering the U.S.
