As President Donald Trump took power, just about everyone said that he planned to pull in American horns and withdraw the US from the world.
Well, not quite.
With daring moves in Asia and the Middle East—or they just impulsive and risky?— along with a hardline stand on the leftist government in South America, Trump is showing himself to be an old school interventionist.
Old school meaning Cold War confrontational style.
Trump decided out of the blue to dispatch a contingent of US Marines to Syria to help in the takeover of Raqqa, the city which is the main base of the Islamic State in the country. This act was very much unlike anything done by his predecessor, Barack Obama. Obama was reluctant to get involved militarily in Syria, to the point where he let the Syrian army get away with using poison gas on a civilian neighborhood without punishment.
With the US absent in Syria, Russia stepped in to suport the amry on the side of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and left Washington outside the power game dominated by Moscow and Assad-ally Iran. It also left the US without influence in peace talks sponsored by Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Trump’s interventionist move in Syria evolved from his position during the presidential election campaign. He had proposed establishment of a refugee safe-zone in Syria. Critics pooh-pooed the idea on the grounds that such a safe haven would require air power to protect and Russia would shoot US planes out of the air.
With the Raqqa move,Trump went further. He sent US troops to fight. The Marines require air cover for their safety, yet neither Russia nor Iran has tried to intercept American fighter jets over Syria. Assad called the Marines “invaders,” though, confusingly, he also said cooperation with Trump to defeat the Islamic State would be a good thing.
So is this a gesture destined to go wrong, like Ronald Reagan’s dispatch of Marines to Lebanon in 1983, during which a suicide truck bombing killed 243 soldiers? Or does this suddenly give Trump skin in the game to influence a political outcome in Syria? Or is it merely part of his promise to crush the Islamic State, after which he will leave Syria to the Russians and Iranians?
No matter. He has already distanced himself from Obama’s hands-off policy and, militarily, shown him to be more overtly interventionist than his predecessor.
Same with North Korea. After the Koreans tested a ballistic missile, Trump authorized deployment of anti-missile batteries to South Korea. This is a departure not only from Obama but also former presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, both of whom relied on economic sanctions to (ineffectively) rein in the north.
Both China and Russia have objected to the anti-missile maneuver. Trump ignored them.
Meanwhile, Trump took a hard line on the floundering socialist regime in Venezuela. He put sanctions on the country’s vice-president, alleging his involvement in drug trafficking. Venezuela complained a little bit, but didn’t make much noise about it. Nor has anyone else.
In Washington at the beginning of a new administration, there’s the habitual search to define its Foreign Policy Doctrine ™. It took a while for the ever reticent Obama to produce one, which eventually in shorthand, his officials called “Don’t do stupid shit.” That meant don’t embark on anything that might imply a major military move —though Obama was addicted to secret drone warfare in Middle East countries. (Trump is now looking for ways to speed decision-making for launching drone strikes.)
Whether Trump’s bellicose posture means dangerous confrontation in potential hotspots remains to be seen. Perhaps a significant test will come in Ukraine, where Obama departed from his customary caution to place economic sanctions on Russia and send some token troops to Eastern Europe.
Trump will be meeting with Germany’s Angela Merkel soon in Washington. Discussions about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are on the schedule. Given the focus on Trump’s alleged ties to Russia, it will be a mark of his foreign direction on what he says and eventually does about Ukraine. Will he keep the pressure on? Add to it?
If Syria and the Korean Peninsula are any guide, he might be tougher than one might expect, given his past praise of Vladimir Putin.
In any event, so far Trump’s tendency is to talk loudly and maybe wield a big stick. Interventionist, not isolationist.