Trumplomacy takes on One China Policy

China’s Soft Spot? Trump’s Negotiating Leverage.

Trump’s position is that you can negotiate anything. The president-elect drew in supporters with a mandate to renegotiate the terms of NATO, Obamacare, border controls and trade with China. When Trump broke diplomatic precedent by accepting a phone call from Taiwan’s leader, Tsai Ying-wen, China immediately declared its negotiating soft spot to Trump – with a warning the two countries will have “nothing to discuss” if Trump discards the 44-year “One China” policy. While aides within the transition team claim Trump had carefully plotted the issue for weeks, Trump claims he found out about the call hours in advance.

Whether a result of strategic thinking or chaotic improvisation, Trump has consistently raised the stakes by using his opponent’s most sensitive issues to increase his leverage. In the second presidential debate, Hillary Clinton watched Trump renegotiate the spotlight away from the “words” in the Access Hollywood tape, toward the four victims Trump invited to the townhall, and linked to Bill Clinton’s “actions”, arguing Hillary was complicit. Trump recently advanced his promise to renegotiate trade with China, mindful of his previous success with sensitive points of leverage. “I don’t know why we have to be bound by a One China policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade,” he told Fox News.

“No one makes a sudden move,” said Yanmei Xie a China expert, explaining the fundamental premise of Sino-US bilateral relations. Trump’s sudden move now aims to include talking points from China’s currency policy and military advancements in the South China Sea to Beijing’s relationship with a nuclear ambitious North Korea within a new bargaining chip: the One China policy. Reacting to comments from the president-elect, Chinese officials insist “adherence to the One China policy is the political bedrock of development of (Sino-US bilateral) relations,” from Geng Shuang, a foreign ministry spokesman.

In the 1972 Shanghai Communiqué, President Richard M. Nixon and Mao Zedong came to a diplomatic understanding, which led to Washington severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1979. Down the line, President Reagan contested Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan in the so-called Six Assurances negotiations in 1982. Before taking oath, Reagan had invited a Taiwanese delegation to his inauguration and criticized the non-recognition of Taiwan, but as president, abided by the terms of the 1979 communiqué. Even though Trump is not the first to openly question the One China policy, up till now it has been considered as good political sense. Eight presidents since 1972 have honored the policy.

“Nobody in Beijing gets to dictate who we talk to ( ) we should shake this relationship up,” John Bolt told Fox News, joining the Republican foreign policy experts praising Trump. According to Bolt, China’s aggressive territorial claims in the South China Sea have far-reaching impacts – including for the US. Yet, China remains the largest trading partner of the USA. “By putting One China up for grabs, Trump will suck all the oxygen out of the U.S.-China relationship,” said Evan Medeiros, a former senior director for Asia at the National Security Council. The trade-off between sensitive points of leverage and a long-esteemed bilateral foundation is the key issue that divides policy opinion.

However, Trump is comfortable with divisions in policy opinion. Gearing up to inauguration, the president-elect is under pressure to table specific plans for how he will renegotiate the issues he promised to improve. At the same time, China’s inflamed reaction to a bruised soft spot, presented Trump with a possible answer to capitalize on. In a less extreme form, he used the same negotiation pattern to turn his opponent’s sensitivities into personal victories, like a business-minded opportunist buying houses in a recession. Now, voices in China are confident this strategy will not work. An editorial in The Global Times, a Chinese state-run tabloid, said that Trump was “like a child in his ignorance of foreign policy. “ The editorial added, “the One China policy cannot be bought and sold. Trump, it seems, only understands business and believes that everything has a price.”