TRUMP’S FIRST 109 DAYS: PROFIT, POLITICS & POLICY

TRUMP’S FIRST 109 DAYS: PROFIT, POLITICS & POLICY
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I understand the compulsion to carry on the tradition that began with Franklin Roosevelt to review the first 100 days of this unusual Presidency and bring out the magnifying glasses of myriad political analysts and historians—even psychologists and psychiatrists—to inspect, interpret, reflect, diagnose, and often prescribe and proscribe. As Trump noted, "It's a different kind of a presidency," But there is very little difference between most aspects of Trump’s campaign and, more importantly, the 72 days between the election and the inaugural, which I think is the most accurate predicator of actions, politics, policy and behavior, as I wrote about:

First and foremost, I trust no one is struggling any longer with a label for President Trump: Businessman! He is neither a republican nor a conservative nor an ideologue; He is simply a global businessman looking to expand his brand and make money first and foremost. Principles, convictions, ideology are all expendable, tradable and fungible. I accepted this fact after re-reading Trump: The Art of the Deal at the start of his campaign. Most of what was being analyzed and scrutinized and theorized fell away, and it all made sense—if not always rational.

While everyone's debating about what to do—or not to do-- about North Korea, Trumps’ invitation to Duarte, the election results in France, the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, the Kushner family trolling for Chinese money using the EB-5 program, and the healthcare bill that just passed the House – whatever the policy or crisis or conflict of interest, the fact is that the president and his family are laser focused on how to continue to build the brand and benefit from it.

Second, politics and policies. It's very clear that the president holds no firm political view or any policy sacred. Whatever will produce a victory is the president's goal, hence the celebration on the White House lawn of the passage of the latest healthcare legislation 2.0. So consequently the populism, anti-immigrant, anti-trade, isolationism of the campaign has given away to a much more pragmatic and emerging corporate style--at least for the moment. And even more importantly, a growing internationalism is developing with Sec. of Defense Mattis, Sec. of State Tillerson, and the National Security Advisor, H. R. McMaster, leading the way.

Trump is displaying a leadership style called warlord, as I have spoken about before. Warlords can be benevolent or malevolent--or both. Warlords need enemies, both internal and external. When a warlord experiences a defeat on one battlefield, he turns to another one. Celebrating his first 100 days at a rally in Harrisburg, PA, Trump returned to his two favorite domestic enemies, the media and the elites. During the weeks running up to the first 100 days, the enemy was overseas. That was partly the result of the dramatic legislative loss on repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act version 1.0. But, quite frankly, overseas is often where presidents turn for solace, to lick their wounds, and to prove that they carry a big stick in world affairs. No surprise!

Another aspect of warlords is their unpredictability, which can be a very effective tactic because both our enemies/competitors and our allies are kept off balance. Certainly, we saw this in the campaign and in the transition, and we will continue to witness it--just as everyone who has ever done a deal with the Donald has experienced. I happen to think that Trump’s unpredictability could prove valuable and beneficial for the United States, especially as it relates to North Korea. Of course, it is a high-risk way to govern.

Countries are often like families in that members of a family learn how to interact successfully – or not – with one another. If I do this, then dad will do that. If my sister does this, then my mother will do that. It's a dance that becomes more rigid as time passes until it is institutionalized and internalized. The U.S. has been in a predictable dance with our allies and our foes and competitors since the end of World War II, and specifically with China and Japan since the end of the Korean War. The problem is that often this institutionalized and predictable pattern – dance, if you will, of behavior – prevents progress and resolution. So, Trump's unpredictable behavior -– which I am not convinced is conscious, but rather innate and automatic-– is forcing our allies and our foes and competitors to re-evaluate the entrenched behavior and inter-country relationships.

I am certain that our allies and our foes/competitors are enlisting the best and the brightest psychologists and psychiatrists—even psychics--in their countries to figure out how to handle the president. And I am sure most, if not all, leaders of every country that have significant bi-lateral relations with the U.S. are asking, What next? What can I expect? Can I believe what the president told me? Can I count on what the president committed?

The important thing to remember is that Trump will do what ever is best from a business standpoint, and he will go where the victories are, discarding principles, and even traditional and historic alliances along the way.

That is why family is even thicker than blood for warlords. Friends and supporters are held embraced as long as they are useful and loyal—and in that order of priority. Once either one or both of those two qualifications disappear, gone! But family, that is permanent! And to whom the riches flow.

As former CIA field analyst Professor Brian Glyn Williams, author of The Last Warlord (a field research based book on the phenomenon of warlordism in Afghanistan's endless wars) told me in our recent conversation on the warlord phenomenon writ large "the real strength of a warlord--or kreigsherr as the Germans who invented the term knew them--lies in their sheer power to dominate enemies, and even loyal friends, through the often unpredictable deployment of or display of weapons of war, including psychological or psy-ops. In Afghanistan, Trump has already gained a reputation as a jang salar or warlord with his deployment, for the first time in history, of a massive MOAB bomb against ISIS.... and this is a message that has reverberated through Central Asia, Pakistan and beyond as far as Pyongyang."

And finally, warlords consider themselves above accountability whether it is for their actions or for their words, because warlords view themselves as kings, as sovereigns, if you will, whether for a region, a country or a province.

And therefore the fact that Trump can abruptly contradict himself countless times with no consequences, at least not yet, is quite a remarkable feat. And there is not just his contradiction of previous statements, but also contradictions within contradictions-often within the same sentence. See my piece posted last July about this remarkable feat:

Quite frankly the only constituency that Donald Trump has to fear is his loyal voters. He has not just made a pledge with specific promises to his voters; He has a covenant with them. If he breaks that covenant not only will he pay the price, but also I fear our country will be severely damaged. Many of Trump’s voters are people who have been left out of the benefits of the American Dream. They see the media, elites/celebrities, government and the growing list of millionaires and billionaires as robbing them of their shot of the American Dream, and, worst of all, denying their children an opportunity for a piece of the Dream. Several polls have shown that over 50% of Americans no longer believe that tomorrow will be better for their children than it is for them. This growing feeling is a perilous tear in the social fabric of America.

So on this 109 day, I'm not focusing so much on the politics and policy of this administration, but more on the financials of the Trump Organization, (http://www.trump.com/) reportedly an umbrella name for over 500 entities worldwide owned by Trump and his family, because I know that is where the real stories are. And that is why the real guardians of our democracy are the investigative reporters who "follow the money!" And the media outlets with the courage to publish, post, broadcast and disseminate these stories.

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