Several months into his first term, President Trump remains unpopular, with opinions wildly polarized. And we take a look ahead to the 2018 midterms ― and to the UK’s election in June. This is HuffPollster for Friday, April 28, 2017.
QUANTIFYING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S FIRST MONTHS IN OFFICE - Donald Trump is closing in on his first 100 days as president ― and whether or not you consider that a significant milestone, it’s as good a time as any to take stock of his numbers, via HuffPost Pollster’s aggregates of publicly available surveys. All data is as of Friday morning. [Pollster charts]
TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING
-Among the public: 43% approve of Donald Trump’s job as president, while 52% disapprove
-Among Democrats: 13% approve, 85% disapprove
-Among Republicans: 84% approve, 13% disapprove
-Among independents: 40% approve, 51% disapprove
-On the economy: 45% approve, 45% disapprove
-On health care: 36% approve, 54% disapprove
-On foreign policy: 41% approve, 49% disapprove
WHAT THE POLLS ARE SAYING - There’s no shortage of polling delving into opinions on Trump’s first 100 days in office, although there is a notable scarcity of good headlines for Trump in the mix. We’ve rounded up some of the key takeaways from the latest surveys.
Opinions on Trump are deeply polarized - Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus, Kabir Khanna and Anthony Salvanto: “Ratings of Donald Trump are far more partisan than ratings of his immediate predecessors were at this point in their presidencies: both Presidents Obama and Bush enjoyed higher ratings from the opposing political party at the 100-day mark. Mr. Trump also gets lower ratings [than] they did among independents.” [CBS]
Voters don’t think he’s bringing real change, but do see a brightening economic picture - Dana Blanton: “Trump’s victory came from voters’ desire for change ― a big part of which was ‘draining the swamp.’ Yet only 43 percent think the president is succeeding in bringing real change to Washington. More, 50 percent, say he’s failing….The number saying the economy is in ‘poor’ shape is lower than it’s been in more than a decade. By an 18-point margin, 52-34 percent, voters see the nation’s job situation improving ― the first time since 2004 that more than half say so.” [Fox]
Fewer now believe he’s keeping his promises - Ryan Teague Beckwith: “According to a TIME-SurveyMonkey poll conducted last week, just 25% of Americans believe that Trump ‘keeps his promises,’ down from 31% in a similar poll in early February….Just 26% of Americans said that Trump accomplished most or almost all of the things he said he would do in his first 100 days, down from the 40% who expected that he would do so in a similar survey just after his inauguration.” [Time]
Trump isn’t expanding his base - Jennifer Agiesta: “Overall, 44% say they approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, 54% disapprove. That’s about the same as in each of the two previous CNN/ORC polls taken after his inauguration….The poll finds declining ratings for Trump’s handling of two issues that have been top priorities since he took office ― health care and immigration.” [CNN]
And his image remains largely what it was in January - Kathy Frankovic: “What Americans saw in President Trump as he was inaugurated nearly 100 days ago is more or less the same things they see today: opinions of his qualities and his Presidency have changed little. The public is more negative than positive about his performance, and most continue to find weaknesses in his honesty, empathy and temperament.” [YouGov]
Millennials are not impressed - Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, with GfK: “As the first 100 days of the administration nears, 32% of 18 to 29 year old Americans approve of President Donald Trump’s job performance overall…[Y]oung Americans’ approval of President Trump’s handling of the economy is at 37%. Furthermore on other issues, the poll finds his approval of dealing with ISIS at 33%, health care at 30%, climate change at 28% and performance on race relations at 27%.” [Harvard IOP]
But Trump voters have few regrets - UVA, in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies (R): “A new University of Virginia Center for Politics poll of Trump voters shows his approval rating at 93% with these voters, though just 42% ‘strongly approve’ while 51% ‘somewhat approve.’...To the extent that Trump voters expressed concern about the president, they worried about his tweeting….Looking ahead to the 2018 midterm election, 78% of respondents said they planned to vote for the Republican candidate in their House district, 2% for the Democratic candidate, and 19% undecided.” [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]
WHAT DO TRUMP’S RATINGS MEAN FOR THE MIDTERMS? - Harry Enten: “[P]residential approval is not a great measure of the more immediate electoral issue: How will the president’s party do in the midterm elections? By all means, keep one eye on Trump’s approval rating, but keep the other on the generic congressional ballot — a longstanding poll question that pits a nameless Republican against a nameless Democrat in a race for the House. Approval ratings have historically jumped all over the place, and even on the eve of the midterms, they do a relatively poor job of forecasting the election results. The generic ballot, in contrast, has tended to be far more telling. And the generic ballot polls conducted since Trump became president suggest that House Republicans are on track to suffer a potentially major defeat in the 2018 midterm elections. The relationship between how the House majority party fares on the generic ballot at this point and how it does in the next midterm election is messy. Republicans weren’t polling well in the first half of 2013, for example, but went on to dominate the 2014 midterms….[But] when we look at the generic ballot numbers this early in the cycle while also accounting for who holds the White House, the generic ballot has forecasted midterm House results fairly well.” [538]
HUFFPOST POLLSTER IS NOW TRACKING THE UK ELECTION - United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May has called for a snap general election to be held June 8. Currently, the Conservative Party is in the lead with 46 percent, per HuffPost’s aggregate, followed by the Labour Party with 29 percent. The Liberal Democrats stand at 11 percent and UKIP and the Scottish National Party each receive about 5 percent. [Pollster chart]
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FRIDAY’S ‘OUTLIERS’ - Links to the best of news at the intersection of polling, politics and political data:
-Polling finds relatively little public insistence on building a wall with Mexico. [Morning Consult, Gallup]
-Most Americans oppose using hard-ball tactics to replace the ACA. [KFF]
-Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer both have relatively low favorability ratings. [Gallup]
-Stuart Rothenberg asks whether Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are realigning to be more Republican. [Inside Elections]
-Nicholas Vinocur and Charlie Cooper take stock of pollsters’ accurate performance in the French election. [Politico]
-Matt Dabrowski looks at recent polling on Iran’s upcoming presidential election. [Al-Monitor]
-A new AP-NORC poll examines teenagers’ relationships with social media. [AP]
-Pew Research releases a study on the way residents of Flint, Michigan searched for information during the water crisis. [Pew]