As of May 12 Uganda has two claimants to the country's presidency.
One is already detained in a secret location while the other still displays the trappings of power minus the legitimacy.
First on Wednesday May 11, Uganda's opposition leader Dr. Kizza Besigye announced on a video and statement posted on his political party's Facebook page and later on Youtube that he'd been sworn in as president, one day before the May 12 swearing in of the country's dictator of 30 years Gen. Yoweri Museveni.
How did Uganda arrive at this moment?
It has been building up for years. But the shorter answer picks up the story from the February 18, 2016 election which was widely dismissed by Ugandan election observers as well as by international observers from the European Union (EU) and the Commonwealth as having not been free, fair, or credible.
The United States also concluded the election didn't truly reflect the will of Ugandans, saying "Delays in the delivery of voting materials, reports of pre-checked ballots and vote buying, ongoing blockage of social media sites, and excessive use of force by the police, collectively undermine the integrity of the electoral process."
In a subsequent speech on April 6, in Uganda, U.S. Ambassador Deborah Malac went even further. Not only did she reiterate the U.S. criticism of the election's conduct, she also attacked the Museveni regime for corruption, complaining that donor funds meant to fight HIV/aids had been embezzled.
While Gen. Museveni has been accused by the opposition of stealing the country's previous three elections, the daylight robbery was most blatant this time around, with: no attempt to conceal the state-sponsored election violence against opposition candidate supporters; the blocking of Facebook, Twitter and Whatsapp to conceal abuses; delays of up to 6 hours in delivering voting materials to polling stations in opposition strongholds to suppress the vote; the rigging by counting pre-ticked ballots; blocking opposition candidates from radio stations by threatening to cancel the owners' licenses; the abuse of state resources, by dipping into the treasury to the tune of $8 million to finance Gen. Museveni's campaign; and, outright buying of votes.
The two main opposition leaders Dr. Besigye and former prime minister Amama Mbabazi between them spent less than $800,000; their resources came from fund-raising.
Even after the regime blocked access to social media, Ugandans were able to download Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and tweet tally sheets from polling stations where they voted; the figures differed with the numbers later released as official totals. In some precincts Museveni's wins exceeded the number of total registered voters.
The harassment was "in your face." Dr. Besigye was arrested before the voting started, during the voting, and then detained in his home for more than a month afterwards. Journalists who camped outside his house were arrested and some reported being beaten in custody.
While Ugandan and international election monitors dismissed the election, Gen. Museveni's hand-picked Electoral Commission under Badru Kiggundu awarded him "victory." Dr. Besigye was unable to file a petition challenging the result within 30 days as required by law to the Ugandan Supreme Court since he was detained beyond that period.
The Supreme Court, whose judges are also all appointed by Gen. Museveni did dismiss a challenge filed by the other candidate, Mbabazi.
Dr. Besigye instead called for an international audit similar to the one carried out under the auspices of the United Nations in Afghanistan that helped break the stalemate in 2014 between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, both of whom claimed victory in that country's election.
Gen. Museveni ignored Besigye's demand for an audit and focused on his May 12 swearing date. It was as if merely by holding up a bible and promising to uphold and protect a constitution he has so far evicerated, his stolen "victory" would somehow be legitimized.
Dr. Besigye and his Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) party then launched a campaign of mass peaceful "defiance" that included protests and every-Tuesday prayer services led by pastors around the country.
Gen. Museveni's reaction was to unleash a state-of-terror.
There were mass arrests of opposition leaders.
Then a partisan judge, Steven Kavuma, from the same Supreme Court, issued an ex-parte order from the bench banning Ugandans from participating in any defiance-related activities called for by the FDC, including the every-Tuesday prayers. In subsequent days people all over the country, including a pastor, were actually arrested for praying in groups.
Museveni has turned Uganda into the old pre-reform China and Soviet Union.
Judge Kavuma even scandalously banned Uganda's media from covering any events related to the "defiance" campaign; as if "banning" reporting is something still possible to accomplish in the 21st century when Smart phones are now the new media platforms.
While ordinary people have been able to feed the world with information, major Ugandan private newspapers, such as The Daily Monitor, which is ironically edited by an American named Malcolm Gibson have been under tremendous pressure to tow the line.
The draconian orders by the regime were denounced by the U.S. as well as Human Rights Watch, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and Amnesty International.
Gen. Museveni was probably calculating that he could clamp down as viciously as he wanted to so long as the opposition didn't mobilize enough people to come out on the streets to disrupt his swearing in. He deployed thousands of heavily armed troops all over Kampala, the capital, and around the country.
The opposition had announced that it would conduct its own parallel swearing-in on May 12 in a stadium.
Perhaps sensing that the regime would arrest Besigye before then, the event was held May 11 according to the FDC. During the ceremony Dr. Besigye announced that he would be forming a transitional government of national unity which would create an independent election commission to oversee free and fair elections.
He also justified his swearing in by saying his party had evidence from tallying that he had actually won by 52 % and that he had been willing to submit to a binding independent audit to confirm who really won the election. Besigye said his transitional government would end nepotism and corruption and create an independent court and professionalize Uganda's institutions.
Gen. Museveni's reaction was predictable.
Dr. Besigye was arrested after his announced swearing-in and whisked off to an undisclosed location in a remote part of Uganda and once again access to social media platforms were blocked.
Apart from Besigye swearing in before him, Gen. Museveni should be more worried by the Obama administration's response. It's no secret that when Obama addressed the African Union in Ethiopia last year and denounced African presidents who alter their country's constitutions and prolong their regime he had dictators like Museveni in mind.
When contacted for a reaction to Dr. Besigye's announced swearing-in, the State Department's Bureau of African Affairs spokesman Jeffrey Loree
said: "As we have said before, the United States does not support or endorse any one party or candidate in Uganda. We remain deeply concerned that government security forces continue to detain members of the political opposition and restrict their freedom of movement. We reiterate our call to the Ugandan government to immediately release Dr. Kizza Besigye from house arrest as well to release all other detained opposition members."
This isn't good news for Museveni since for all practical consideration the U.S. now sees Besigye's claim to (or lack of) to the presidency as just as equal to Museveni's. The Ugandan dictator has been able to survive for so long always with American backing -- in recent years he enjoyed U.S. exception because Uganda has deployed thousands of troops in Somalia to help fight al-Shabab militants.
But Somalia is now considerably more stable, the U.S. also uses more drone strikes there, and other countries like Kenya have also sent thousands of troops. Unlike in the past Museveni is in a weaker spot to blackmail the U.S. by threatening to withdraw troops as he's done in the past.
So, which of the two men actually have the stronger claim?
Dr. Besigye, who claims an audit will confirm his victory and who is undeniably very popular and draws huge crowds?
Or the dictator of 30 years who commands the generals --at least for now-- and who controls the national purse strings and pays the salaries of the Electoral Commissioners and the Supreme Court judges who awarded him the "victory."
Perhaps an Afghanistan-style audit is indeed the best solution barring an election re-run.