Unlikely Allies: Never Trumpers And Clinton’s Path To Victory

What this election comes down to is who is hated more.

If Hillary Clinton wins this election, it’s because of Republicans.

It is safe to say that Hillary Clinton probably wants to become President more than anyone else. After coming so close but falling just a little bit short of the nomination in 2008, the 2016 Presidential Election was her second chance to finally clinch the nomination. Even though Hillary Clinton has intensely campaigned this election cycle, if she does win this election, it’s not Democrats or independents she should be thanking, but rather Never Trumpers.

“Never Trumpers” is a term often used to describe Republicans who refuse to support and vote for Donald Trump. Instead, they are voting third party, voting for Clinton, or not voting at all. Because of Never Trumpers, Hillary Clinton has been able to gain an edge over Trump in national polls and in key battleground states.

Between email scandals and a high public perception of untrustworthiness, if Donald Trump had never run in the first place, any other Republican would likely have been leading Hillary Clinton in the polls by a landslide – Rubio, Cruz, Kasich, Fiorina, even Bush. But for as much as Hillary Clinton is hated by members of her own party, Donald Trump is hated even more by certain GOP members. Interestingly, what this election comes down to is who is hated more.

However, this prediction regarding a sans-Trump Republican victory over Clinton does not account for the fact that Donald Trump has changed the very fabric of the Republican Party. His supporters are probably the most motivated and loyal voters seen in a very long time. As a result, if Donald Trump had lost the Republican nomination, Hillary Clinton would probably still be leading in the polls. Trump supporters would have felt betrayed by their own party, echoing a similar sentiment common among Sanders’ supporters, but only to a greater extent, something that would have likely caused them to be hesitant at the very least to support the Republican nominee.

Donald Trump is losing this election because Never Trumpers are refusing to support him. But, as he often boasts, independents are actually more likely to vote for him than Clinton. Polling throughout swing states and even nationally indicate that Trump leads Clinton among independent voters, on average, by about 7 to 8 percent.

This lead among independents means that if traditionally-Republican voters cast their ballots in favor of Trump this Tuesday, he will most likely win this election. What remains to be seen, however, is whether that will happen.

Never Trumpers have been very vocal about their dislike of Trump – prominent conservatives such as John McCain and Glenn Beck serve as just two examples. But one question remains: despite everything they say, come Election Day, will Never Trumpers refuse to vote for Trump as they have been saying all along, or will they end up coming home? Only time will tell.

But if Hillary Clinton does win the election this November 8th, it will not be because of her supporters or swing voters. It will be because of Never Trumpers.