We are at a potential cusp, a transformational moment in the Gulf and the Middle East where détente with Iran could radically change the geopolitics and economics of the region. The opportunity should not be missed.
Iran was headline news last month after the P5+1 (shorthand for U.S.) reached a deal whereby Iran agreed to curb some of its nuclear activities in return for a promised USD 7 billion in sanctions relief. In a deal agreed for a six-month timeframe and reflecting the current balance of power between the negotiating parties, Iran agreed to halt enrichment of uranium above 5 percent purity, neutralize its stockpile of uranium enriched to near 20 percent purity, stop building its stockpile of 3.5 percent enriched uranium, forswear "next generation centrifuges," shut down its plutonium reactor and allow extensive new inspections of its nuclear facilities. Concessions Iran "won" included suspension of international sanctions on Iran's exports of oil, gold and cars, which could yield USD 1.5 billion in revenue, unfreezing USD 4.2 billion in revenue from oil sales and releasing tuition-assistance payments from the Iranian government to Iranian students enrolled abroad.
Following the announcement, Iran's official missions hogged the limelight as did the GCC Summit's leaders applauding Iran's "new direction," though its communiqué also voiced concern over Iran's plans to build more nuclear power plants on the Gulf, saying these "threaten the environmental system and water security."
The issue is not the nuclear dossier but Iran's geo-strategic role
The current focus of negotiations is on Iran's nuclear capability and sanctions. It will take time and confidence-building measures to overcome suspicion, mistrust and three decades of deep freeze in relations. On both sides, hardliners and losers from détente (notably Israel and Saudi) will actively attempt to derail negotiations. However, the opportunity and overture offered by the election of Hassan Rouhani should not be missed. A new path must be chosen.
The ultimate purpose and objective lies not in the nuclear dossier but in defining Iran's future geo-strategic role in the Gulf, Middle East and South East Asia. It is about Iran's active participation in healing long-standing open wounds, including the cancer of the Israeli-Palestinian impasse. Only a Pax Americana-Irania can lead to a stabilization of Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and prevent Syria from turning into a failed state with destabilizing spillovers into neighboring countries, notably weak Lebanon and Jordan.
The Iran détente stakes are high. A large dividend from détente would result from reduced military expenditures, of "swords into plowshares" across the Middle East. In 2012, the Middle East countries spent more than USD 132 billion in military spending, the highest percentage of GDP in the world (with Saudi leading at 8.9 percent of GDP, Oman 8.4 percent and Israel 6.2 percent). Freeing up economically sterile military expenditure and re-orienting spending for investment in human capital, infrastructure, R&D, economic and social development projects and regional public goods would lead to much-needed job creation, increase productivity growth and raise real incomes for the young generations of a region that has witnessed too much violence, wars, death and destruction. A new path must be chosen.
Détente with Iran means lower oil prices
Globally, détente with Iran would mean a lowering of tensions and risk of disruption of oil supplies through the Straits of Hormuz -- substantially cutting the $10-$15 risk premium built into world oil prices -- and would also result in increased oil exports from Iraq and Iran, putting further downward pressure on oil prices. Lower oil prices would contribute positively to the nascent global economic recovery, though the Gulf oil exporters would suffer from a fall in oil export and budget revenues. Similarly, access to international banking and capital markets would be restored for Iran and the sovereign risk premium would decline for all countries, lowering the cost of capital and finance.
There would be two other important medium and longer-term implications. One, OPEC governance, strategy and role would need to change to accommodate growing oil production from Iran and Iraq and pressure from shale oil. Two, détente would allow the build-up of pipelines and energy infrastructure from China, Kazakhstan to Iran, Afghanistan to Pakistan and India. Given its geography, Iran would be the lynchpin linking the oil rich Gulf with Asia and China along the 'New Silk Road'. Iran détente means large economic benefits
Détente with Iran would not only be a major change in the geo-politics of the Middle East, it would potentially generate large economic benefits to Iran and the Gulf countries. The combination of strengthened sanctions, which quarantined Iran from the international banking and payment system, with economic mismanagement and populist economic policies under Ahmadinejad led to a downward spiral in economic performance. Iran, which used to export about 2 million barrels per day before the sanctions, exports just around one million bpd, a halving of its main export commodity. Iran's GDP contracted by 1.9 percent in 2012 and the IMF estimates a further drop of 1.5 percent in 2013. The currency collapsed, with the Rial's unofficial value falling from around 13,000 to the U.S. dollar in September 2011 to roughly 30,000 to the dollar earlier this summer. Not surprisingly, inflation has skyrocketed to between 40 percent to 70 percent depending on the source, with the Central Bank of Iran announcing an official rate of 39 percent for the 12-month period ending in August, and youth unemployment exceeding 24 percent. The political cost has been heavy and led to the Rouhani change; a new path was chosen. Iran now has a team of technocrats in the top economic policy cabinet positions, with an objective of macroeconomic stabilization, committed to market-based reforms and greater international openness that would encourage foreign investment. Indeed, Iran will have to undertake major reforms to improve the investment climate, introduce laws and regulations to ease the cost of doing business and protect investors and liberalize economic activity, with an expanded role for the private sector.
UAE & GCC would be major beneficiaries of Iran détente
Amongst the GCC nations, UAE was the main trade partner for Iran, thanks to the emergence of Dubai as a key re-export hub. Starting in 2000, GCC exports to Iran grew substantially, reaching USD 13.4 billion in 2008-09, with the GCC states, particularly the UAE, enjoying a sizeable trade surplus with Iran. With sanctions, trade relations with the region plummeted -- a good example is Dubai's trade with Iran, which plunged by more than a third to AED 25bn in 2012. With sanctions removal and détente, trade is likely to rapidly exceed pre-sanction levels, benefiting both countries. In 2008, the GCC accepted an offer from Tehran to begin negotiations on a FTA. With détente, negotiations can be re-opened to strengthen regional and bilateral relations. The GCC countries can benefit from Iran's agricultural and industrial potential, while Iran can benefit from the GCC's services sector, logistics infrastructure and capital for investment. Opening up would lead to a mutually beneficial surge in trade and investment.
A $1.3 trillion investment opportunity in Iraq and Iran
As a result of more than two decades of sanctions, Iran has not had access to modern technology and investment, and achieved lower overall levels of investment. With détente Iran will need to catch up and raise investment by up to 15 percent to 20 percent of GDP (or about US$60 to US$80 billion) for at least 10 years. Hence, as a conservative estimate, Iran will be opening investment opportunities of some $600 to $800 billion over the coming decade ranging from core infrastructure, agriculture, oil and gas, industry and housing among other. Next door, Iraq's reconstruction will require investment of the order of $700 billion. Détente with Iran and resulting stabilization in Iraq would mean infrastructure and reconstruction expenditures of some $1.3 trillion, a major boon and boost to the region's economies and for the global economy.
A GCC6+1 is needed: A new path and a new vision
Détente with Iran would be a game changer leading to a deep transformation of the geo-strategic, political and economic geography of the Gulf and the Middle East. The stakes are high. The GCC countries -- in this case led by the UAE -- should seize the opportunity to reap the economic and financial benefits from the opening of trade, investment, development and reconstruction opportunities. The creation of a "GCC6+1" framework could create an official platform for dialogue, consultation and open negotiations on a wide set of issues including security, economic and financial relations. With the appropriate vision, the Gulf could become a zone of peace, stability and prosperity where the peoples of the region could fructify their vast human, energy, natural and financial resources. The alternative is increased militarization, tension and mistrust and growing risk of conflict. It is clear which option is beneficial for our region.