American voters are almost evenly divided on the likely outcome of this year's presidential election, according to a HuffPost/YouGov poll taken shortly after Donald Trump became the presumptive Republican nominee last week.
Thirty-nine percent believe Clinton will win in November if she runs against Trump, with 21 percent predicting she'll win by a wide margin, and 18 percent expecting her to prevail in a close election. Thirty-seven percent think Trump will win, with 16 percent expecting a blowout in his favor, and 21 percent believing he's likely to win by a narrower margin. About one-quarter of voters say it's too early to tell who will win, or that they're not yet sure.
Voters who belong to or lean toward the Democratic Party (Democratic voters, for short) are about equally confident in their chances of winning the White House as are those who belong to or lean toward the Republican Party (Republican voters). Seventy percent of Democratic voters think Clinton will win, while 67 percent of GOP voters anticipate a Trump victory.
Some other findings from the survey:
Most voters are relatively excited about the election.
Fifty-four percent of voters say they're somewhat or very excited about the election, while 43 percent say they're not very excited or not at all excited. By one measure, the parties are about equally enthused, with 55 percent of Democratic voters and 59 percent of Republican voters saying they're at least somewhat excited. But 40 percent of GOP voters, compared to 29 percent of Democratic voters, say they're very excited for November.
But voters aren't convinced either Clinton or Trump would do well if elected.
Just 27 percent of voters think Clinton would be a great or good president, while 17 percent think she'd be about average, and 54 percent say she'd be either poor or terrible. Trump fares about equally, with 30 percent saying he'd be great or good, 8 percent that he'd be average, and 53 percent that he'd do poorly or terribly.
Fifty-three percent of Democratic voters think Clinton would be good or great, while 27 percent think she'd be average, and 19 percent that she'd be poor or terrible. On the GOP side, 55 percent of GOP voters think Trump would be good or great, 11 percent that he'd be average, and 22 percent that he'd be poor or terrible.
The majority of voters have already made up their minds.
Seventy-six percent of all registered voters say they have a good idea of whom they'll vote for, while 19 percent are still making up their mind. Another 5 percent don't plan to vote.
Democratic and GOP voters are about equally likely to have their minds made up, with 82 percent and 78 percent, respectively, saying they have a good idea of how they'll vote. Independent voters who don't lean toward either party are a little less decided, with just 59 percent saying the same, although such voters make up a relatively small fraction of the electorate.
The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted May 5-6 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.
The Huffington Post has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls.You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here.
Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample, rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.