The celebration of the winners, the defeated looks of the losers, that's the usual story of election nights. But this time, it was like a game of musical chairs.
From now on, there are three major political forces dividing the votes of the French. We could almost say four, since the Left Front and the environmentalists, who got around 10 to 12 percent of the vote, are no longer really an asset of the Socialist Party in power.
But the fact remains. Ballot after ballot indicated "the shock," the "thunderclap" of the National Front's success; it has become the leading party in France. The opinion polls predicted it, the voters made it happen.
Who would have said that one day, Marine Le Pen, in Nord-Pas de Calais --a region that has been predominantly leftist for 100 years-- would beat her adversary on the right by nearly 20 percentage points? Who would have thought that a 25-year old woman, niece of the former, talented and sharp as a blade, would crush her rival, the mayor of Nice, by 14 or 15 points? Who would have bet that the members of the triumvirate of the Le Pen family (Marine, Marion, Lous Aliot), with a major boost by Florian Phillipot, would become the only discussion topic of the evening, and that we would stop debating to listen to their statements? Those who have a big smile next to their rivals' crestfallen looks, who have the luxury of mixing national discourse with local commentary in their statements-- that of Marine Le Pen even seeming very presidential?
"Nicolas Sarkozy only furthers the confusion, using the identical themes that FN entertains."
Everyone knew full well that they would be the big winners of these elections --at least in the first round-- but everyone thought, or hoped, that it wouldn't end up in their favor.
So there we have it, here we are, the country is turned upside-down. A defeat of the left compared with 2010; the improvement in the post-bombings popularity of the president was not able to save it. A disappointment for the Republicans, despite the activism and the extreme speeches of a former president of the republic, which did not galvanize them. The environmentalists, symbolic of the extreme left, are lagging behind. And a fact from which we cannot escape much longer: how can a true democracy accept that it has a party supported by 30 percent of the electorate, and only two deputies in the National Assembly? A harrowing revision is imposing itself on our representative system, and it isn't cause for celebration.
But for the time being, there is still room for the second round, and reorganization of forces.
The Socialist Party is withdrawing its lists in the two regions most threatened by the FN, the North and Paca. It's brave-- as it is renouncing any regional elected official for the next five years. This is consistent with the combative speech of the prime minister six months ago. At any rate, it's a way to at least save face when the chances don't look good. It isn't certain, however, that this is effective, as the advance of the two Front women is significant, and the gap between the former UMP and the Socialist Party has grown wider.
"It is, at the very least, a vote of fear. Fear of the world, fear of violence, fear of displacement, fear of others."
The left went to vote as one voice for Jacques Chirac against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002; it is not certain that it will mobilize massively for Bertrand and Estrosi, the latter, in any case, having at least flirted with themes similar to those of his young rival.
Nicholas Sarkozy, for his part, has reiterated a "none of the above" attitude. It is true that no candidate from the right is likely to allow a Frontist to win. On the contrary even: today there are many reports of Republicans against the FN who refuse to budge, the LR ("The Republicans") party candidates "fixing" the votes of the Republican right and preventing them from going to increase the ranks of the extreme right.
However, we could have imagined a less narrow-minded speech. In this case also, for honor. By his appeal that "the Republic not retreat," by showing before the voters that he understood they had "fear of those who despise their identity and way of life," Nicolas Sarkozy only furthers the confusion, using the identical themes that FN entertains.
Ipsos has surveyed the motivations of the voters who showed up at the ballot boxes this Sunday: in part, unemployment, a consistent concern in the minds of the French for the past for some 40 years, with terrorism, insecurity and immigration following close behind. The tragedy of November 13 served to amplify this tendency. The coming months will not reverse it. I am not convinced that, contrary to the enthusiastic claims of Florian Philippot, the FN vote was a "vote of love."
At least, let's hope it isn't the case! But it is, at the very least, a vote of fear. Fear of the world, fear of violence, fear of displacement, fear of others. It is possible to say that, as a result, it is the result itself which is scary: fear of a presidential election, in 16 months, where, on our television screens, as on the front page of Libération this Monday morning, the face which truly marks the beginning of another France will materialize.
This post first appeared on HuffPost France. It has been translated into English and edited for clarity.