Right now, the majority of us are paying most of our attention to the presidential election. Given the possibility that a sociopath who appears willing to destroy our democracy if he doesn’t win could become president, that’s a pretty reasonable thing to do. When the candidates have discussed foreign policy, they have mostly focused on the Middle East/ISIS/terrorism, along with Russia. China has come up on occasion, but largely around the issue of trade and currency manipulation.
Over the past few weeks, however, important new developments in Southeast Asia have been taking place, and they have not come up during the presidential or vice presidential debates. Let’s put aside, for now, the question of whether or not Mr. Trump could identify the Philippines on a map, and explore these developments a bit further.
On Thursday, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte—who was elected this spring and took office on June 30—went to China and made clear that his country had changed the way it sees its relationship with the U.S.:
In this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States. [snip] Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also. America has lost. [snip] I’ve realigned myself in your ideological flow and maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to (President Vladimir) Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world - China, Philippines and Russia. It’s the only way.
That’s not all Duterte had to say:
Foreign policy veers now towards [China]. No more American interference. No more American exercises. I will not go to America anymore. We will just be insulted there.
The mention of “exercises” refers to Duterte’s recent announcement that the joint U.S.-Philippine military exercises that took place earlier this month will be the last ones he will allow.
The Philippine president blamed Barack Obama for the rapid deterioration in relations between the two countries, which once had a colonial relationship, and which have been close allies for decades since the Philippines gained independence from the U.S. in 1946. He specifically cited the criticism by the Obama Administration of the extrajudicial killings of those suspected of being involved with illegal drugs. At least 3600 people have been killed so far in the Philippines’ “war on drugs.” In response to U.S. criticism, Duterte publicly insulted Obama on a number of occasions, calling him a “son of a bitch” and telling him to “go to hell.” Of the criticism, Duterte also offered:
This is the start of the souring of our relations with America.
Just yesterday, Duterte renewed this war of words:
They started it, then came out the issue of human rights, the State Department, Obama, EU. They did this to me. Then they said, we will cut our assistance. So I said to them, 'son of a bitch, do not make us your dogs, as if I am a dog with a leash, and you throw some bread, where I can't reach.' The ambassador said something not very nice. You are not supposed to do that because in an election of another country, you should be careful with your mouth.
Beyond the rhetoric, the meeting between the Chinese and Philippine presidents did not yield any new treaties or agreements, but he did come back with $24 billion worth of Chinese government loans and direct investments. Furthermore, Duterte did not say he was ending the U.S.-Philippine military alliance or say he intended to change an agreement that allows the U.S. to make use of a number of Philippine military facilities. However, the two Asian presidents did say that they would begin a new round of discussions aimed at solving their long-running dispute over territory in the South China Sea. This is a major shift, as the New York Times explained:
Mr. Duterte signaled Wednesday night that one obstacle to such discussions — a July ruling on the disputes by an international tribunal in The Hague, which was overwhelmingly in the Philippines’ favor — could be overcome. China has refused to abide by the court’s ruling, and Mr. Duterte said Wednesday that the tribunal’s decision would “take a back seat.”Under Mr. Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno S. Aquino III, the Philippines cut off bilateral discussions of their conflicting South China Sea claims in 2012, after China seized the disputed Scarborough Shoal and drove Philippine fishermen from it.On Thursday, the two sides agreed to establish a joint coast guard committee on maritime cooperation, a potentially significant step because Chinese Coast Guard vessels have been keeping Philippine fishing boats from Scarborough Shoal.
U.S. officials downplayed the shift, but there’s no denying that it represents a meaningful change in policy, one that alters the balance of power in Southeast Asia. Beyond that, the shift by the Philippines strengthens the idea that Russia and China can serve as lodestars around which a broad, global anti-American alliance can form. Finally, it further makes clear that countries who hold democratic elections may not necessarily be natural allies of the U.S. and other liberal democracies.
On the other hand, Japan and South Korea—despite the occasional hiccup in the relationship—remain solid American allies. Additionally, ties between the U.S. and Vietnam are warming as well. And maybe this is simply Duterte’s way of playing the U.S. and China off each other in order to get as much aid as possible from both.
Either way, the point is that, just as President Obama has done, the next American president is going to have to spend a lot of time dealing with Southeast Asia and with China—not just as an economic competitor, but as a diplomatic and military competitor seeking to expand its regional and even global reach. What exactly do President Duterte’s actions mean? We’ll certainly find out more over time.