This Presidential campaign season has been dominated visually by the media's fascination with Donald Trump. But the underlying story is much more important: old orthodoxies are being challenged, familiar coalitions are at risk, and new directions are needed. Why? And what qualities will this require of the next President?
The missteps of the Bush Administration - wars, tax cuts, lax economic regulation, and a crippling recession - devastated the wealth and economic security of most Americans. The recovery has been long and arduous. President Obama has faced the Tea Party, an obstructive Republican-dominated Congress, a faltering European Union, and a tumultuous Middle East. Still, he's done remarkably well, creating jobs, withdrawing US troops from overseas, taking down Bin Laden, implementing the Affordable Care Act, and restoring America's good name abroad.
Still, many of the most lucrative of the blue-collar jobs are gone. Labor force participation is down. Millions of homes are en route to foreclosure. College student debt loads are heavy and American income disparity is the worst among developed nations. The old macroeconomic formula of, low-interest rates-low inflation-more trade, hasn't worked very well for many Americans.
The Republican Party policies have become increasingly donor-dominated, celebrating federal government failures - seeking partisan advantage. But the white male voters who flock to Trump don't want government to fail - they want it to work for them, rather than just big business and the wealthy. Values-laden arguments about God, guns and gays are no longer enough to win their support. The conflict between these voters and the Republican Party establishment they supported for two decades seems to be tearing the party to pieces.
On the Democratic side, the stresses of the global economy on wage earners - from out-sourcing and foreign competition to jobs lost to higher productivity and technical innovation have supported a 30-year rise in income disparity. As incomes among the wealthiest Americans rise, working wages have remained stagnant. And the ever increasing big money role in politics have persuaded many, mostly young, Democrats, that politics must be more direct and simplistic, and less about practicable reform. These voters are inclined to discount the experience and lifelong achievements of mainstream Democrat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in favor of the passionate, outlying rhetoric of Senator Bernie Sanders.
The spectacle of disaffected voters in both parties is democracy at work - we Americans resolve our issues in public at the ballot box. We should welcome it and be proud. On the other hand, our next President will have to pull together a worried, splintered nation, forge a new consensus, and move forward in new directions.
What qualities will it take? What will it take for our next President to be great? A new recap from American Presidents magazine has compiled ratings polls from the past 20 years to create an authoritative list on where each President's performance ranks historically. It also lays out some clear markers as to what made some Presidents great and others forgettable. Our highest ranked Presidents - Lincoln, Washington, FDR - built teams and forged consensus. They were measured in their rhetoric, and judicious in their policies. They thought strategically. Good Presidents brought previous experience in government, statecraft, or both to their office. They reveled in making government work, even with their political opponents, while Presidents who struggled too often succumbed to Party pressures and ideological rigidity, or were deeply inattentive to their office and ridden with scandal.
Of course, over the years our country has changed, and, thanks to telecommunications, the world has shrunk. Timely and effective communication is critical. And issues - especially issues of foreign policy - have become much more immediate, so inexperience is ever more dangerous.
As the Parties move to select their nominees and the general election begins, I hope Americans will thoughtfully consider what it takes to make a good President. After all, we're voting for the most powerful leadership position in the world - and our right to vote, we believe, is as precious as life itself. And many of our own died fighting for it. So, let's pick the right leader for all America.