Who Will Win New York's Democratic Primary?


We won't know for sure until later tonight, but here are three likely scenarios:

1. Clinton wins big. New York is a closed primary. One of the reasons that Sanders pulled off a historic upset in Michigan is that he cashed in on his overwhelming support from Independent voters. In New York's "Democratic" primary, none of those Independent (or Republican) voters can participate. The primary is limited to registered Democrats and if Clinton wins big, this will be the biggest reason why.

2. Clinton barely wins. Clinton needs a 10-point victory in New York to make the remaining delegate battles a cakewalk. If she wins by 10-points, she will only need to take 30-percent of the remaining delegates in order to clinch the Democratic nomination. If, however, Clinton wins New York by single digits, it may very well go down as a symbolic victory for her opponent. After all, it was Sanders who trailed by up to 40-points in early NY polling. Even a single-digit loss would prove that Sanders can in fact narrow the gap in every state in which he campaigns.

3. Bernie Sanders wins. If Sanders can defy all polls, pundits and predictions and defeat Hillary Clinton in New York, it will no doubt go down as the most unlikely comeback in modern American politics. Then again, Sanders was born and raised in Brooklyn and his campaign consistently attracted tens of thousands to its New York rallies while Clinton struggled to assemble a sizable crowd. Perhaps a Sanders victory in New York is more probable than many believe. In any event, even a virtual tie would go down as a win for Sanders and a historic triumph over the establishment.

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