Why Much of the Conventional Wisdom About 2016 Is Wrong

Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley introduces US President Barack Obama at Prince Georges Community College on September 26, 2
Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley introduces US President Barack Obama at Prince Georges Community College on September 26, 2013 in Largo, Maryland. AFP PHOTO/Mandel NGAN (Photo credit should read MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images)

Since Hillary Clinton formally announced her continued participation in the 2016 presidential race, the campaign has been brought into sharper focus. Ms. Clinton is now an official candidate and several Republicans including Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have announced their candidacy, while others such as Jeb Bush and Scott Walker have emerged as frontrunners for the GOP nomination.

As the campaign progresses, many insights will be repeated and repeated, becoming conventional wisdom. Some will prove to be true. For example, Martin O'Malley is very unlikely to pose a significant challenge to Hillary Clinton; the election will come down to the same six to ten swing states; and the Republicans are fighting a battle against changing demographics. However, many of the tropes that become conventional wisdom are false or nonsensical. Here are five examples.