Will President Trump Live Up To His Campaign Promises? Opinions Are Split

Most don't think that wall with Mexico is likely -- but relatively few really care.

As President Donald Trump completes his hundredth day in office, Americans are split on whether or not he is likely to live up to his campaign promises, according to a new HuffPost/YouGov survey.

Nine percent of Americans say Trump has already lived up to most of his campaign promises, while another 31 percent expect him to do so in the future. Forty-four percent say he’s unlikely to ever do so.

Voters who supported Trump in last year’s election remain optimistic, with 22 percent saying he’s already fulfilled most of his campaign promises, 64 percent that he’s likely to do so, and just 8 percent that he’s unlikely to do so. In contrast, 86 percent of voters who supported Hillary Clinton believe Trump is unlikely to live up to his promises.

The public has more faith in some of Trump’s promises than others. Most recognize his accomplishment in naming Justice Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court, and nearly two-thirds think the Keystone XL pipeline, which Trump pushed forward with an executive order, is likely to be built. A majority also believe Trump will succeed in renegotiating international trade deals, temporarily banning refugees from some Muslim countries and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants, although few yet credit him with reaching any of these goals. Just shy of half think he has or will eventually bring manufacturing jobs back to the country.

But fewer than half of the public now expects Trump to repeal the Affordable Care Act, a feat he promised to accomplish on the first day of his presidency, or to fulfill his perennial pledge to “make America great again.” Fewer than a third thinks the president has or will eventually “drain the swamp” in Washington. And the majority recognize that Trump’s promised border wall, a centerpiece of his campaign, is unlikely to materialize ― and even unlikelier to be funded by Mexico.

Not all these pledges are of equal importance to the public. Asked which three of the listed campaign promises they most want to see the president keep, Trump voters prioritize repealing Obamacare (44 percent) and restoring manufacturing jobs (38 percent). Clinton voters also name restoring manufacturing jobs as a priority (42 percent), along with “draining the swamp” in Washington (28 percent). Trump’s proposed border wall ranks near the bottom of the list, along with the renegotiation of trade deals and the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline.

While a president’s first 100 days have also become a traditional time to take stock of their early accomplishments, Americans are also divided on the significance of that time period. Thirty-seven percent consider it a meaningful milestone, while 40 percent say it’s a meaningless deadline. The rest aren’t sure. For once, there’s little sign of a partisan divide, with a similar 43 percent of Clinton voters and 45 percent of Trump voters saying the first hundred days are meaningful.

Use the widget below to further explore the results of the HuffPost/YouGov survey, using the menu at the top to select survey questions and the buttons at the bottom to filter the data by subgroups: 

The HuffPost/YouGov poll consisted of 1,000 completed interviews conducted April 26-27 among U.S. adults, using a sample selected from YouGov’s opt-in online panel to match the demographics and other characteristics of the adult U.S. population.

The Huffington Post has teamed up with YouGov to conduct daily opinion polls.You can learn more about this project and take part in YouGov’s nationally representative opinion polling. Data from all HuffPost/YouGov polls can be found here. More details on the polls’ methodology are available here.

Most surveys report a margin of error that represents some, but not all, potential survey errors. YouGov’s reports include a model-based margin of error, which rests on a specific set of statistical assumptions about the selected sample, rather than the standard methodology for random probability sampling. If these assumptions are wrong, the model-based margin of error may also be inaccurate. Click here for a more detailed explanation of the model-based margin of error.

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