Post updated 31 times.
FINAL UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 6:57 P.M. PACIFIC:
Hillary Clinton just spoke in New York, keeping her promise not to say, one way or the other, how she will proceed from here.
I've also received an advance copy of the speech Obama will be giving later this evening. It's clear now that Obama will receive many more delegates by the end of the night than he needs to lock up the Democratic nomination - many more than the four that Clinton disputes most vigorously - so the purpose of this post, to track the delegate countdown through the campaigns' eyes in real time, is complete, and I'm going to wrap up my liveblogging before he speaks. First, though, I'd like to preview Obama's historic speech just a little, without giving too much away (I'm sworn to keep the text secret until it's been delivered).
I'm not overstating it when I say that Obama's upcoming speech will be historic. With good cause and after a year and a half of tremendous effort, a degree of effort that only Hillary Clinton can also fathom, he'll be speaking to claim the Democratic nomination for President. In all of America's history, no woman or black man has ever won that prize until now. It's long past time for one or the other to do so. It couldn't be both, at least this time. And Obama has won that right - it wasn't, as McCain claimed tonight, handed to him by "pundits and party elders." He took on one of the best political teams ever assembled, as an underfunded underdog - and he won. It's that simple, and that impressive.
His speech later tonight won't be as manipulative as McCain's was. He's speaking to everyone, not just in America but throughout the world, and not just (as McCain was) to the small subset of Hillary Clinton's supporters who, in their disappointment, are considering voting their grief instead of their wisdom. But he does pay appropriate honor to Clinton, and to those who helped her get so far, and he sagely reminds us that the races - the primary that's now past, and the general that's now beginning - aren't about the individuals. It wasn't him vs. Hillary, and it won't be him vs. McCain; it's his ideas and Hillary's, which were very similar, and his ideas versus McCain's, which are very different.
The pivot will occur in his speech. One of the most important elections in our lifetimes begins tomorrow. Coincidentally, my new column for Off The Bus - "Warranted Wiretaps: Intercepting the Campaigns' Communiques" - also will begin tomorrow or Thursday, as well, depending on events. I'm looking forward to the trip, with Obama and with all of you.
Goodnight.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 5:40 P.M. PACIFIC: John McCain just declared the primary season over, in a speech trying to steal both Barack Obama's "change" theme and Hillary Clinton's delegates. Saying Obama was nominated by "pundits and party elders," he takes subtle but unmistakable advantage of the disaffection with Obama that she has worked so hard to create in many of her followers, and tries to reassure them that he is a reasonable alternative for them in November. Emphases are mine:
Tonight, we can say with confidence the primary season is over, and the general election campaign has begun. I commend both Senators Obama and Clinton for the long, hard race they have run. Senator Obama has impressed many Americans with his eloquence and his spirited campaign. Senator Clinton has earned great respect for her tenacity and courage. The media often overlooked how compassionately she spoke to the concerns and dreams of millions of Americans, and she deserves a lot more appreciation than she sometimes received. As the father of three daughters, I owe her a debt for inspiring millions of women to believe there is no opportunity in this great country beyond their reach. I am proud to call her my friend. Pundits and party elders have declared that Senator Obama will be my opponent. He will be a formidable one. But I'm ready for the challenge, and determined to run this race in a way that does credit to our campaign and to the proud, decent and patriotic people I ask to lead.
The decision facing Americans in this election couldn't be more important to the future security and prosperity of American families. This is, indeed, a change election. No matter who wins this election, the direction of this country is going to change dramatically. But, the choice is between the right change and the wrong change; between going forward and going backward....
It's a skillful speech, all of it, and shows how formidable McCain is going to be. I'm glad Obama is as good as he is.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 5:15 P.M. PACIFIC: At 5:07 Pacific time, for the first time all day, the Clinton campaign announced a superdelegate endorsement:
The Clinton Campaign today announced the support of Wyoming Democratic National Committee Member and automatic delegate Cindy Nunley.
And minutes later, at 5:15, the Obama folks responded with one of their own - and a suggestion of a backlog of others:
WASHINGTON -- Pennsylvania Congressman Bob Brady called Barack Obama's campaign tonight to say that he would cast his vote as a superdelegate for Obama, joining a number of previously uncommitted colleagues have done the same but asked that the campaign not announce the information until the polls close in South Dakota and Montana, he told the Globe.
"It was our opinion that after Tuesday we should commit and get this over with," said Brady. "A lot of them doing it embargoed at 10 p.m. tonight "I'm not embargoed: I told them you can do it tonight, tomorrow or whenever."
After the daylong flood of supers for Obama, it's kind of sad - possibly the last one in Clinton's handbag, and Obama has enough extras to snuff out its mayfly existence precisely eight minutes later (and then some). And from Clinton's glory state, Pennsylvania, of all places. All snark aside - it really is kind of sad, while also being yet another example of the brilliance and attention to detail that have characterized the Obama campaign. This is real artistry, terrible to experience as a rival, beautiful to watch as a connoisseur.
Eight delegates to go, by Obama's count - and more on the way.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 4:53 P.M. PACIFIC: Oklahoma Dem Party chair and superdelegate Ivan Holmes is endorsing Obama, per an Obama press release citing a CNN story. Holmes is another super who wanted to stay neutral until the race was conclusively decided - and decided today's the day:
Holmes, who has led the state party since 2007, initially supported John Edwards and said he has remained neutral throughout the nomination process because Hillary Clinton won the Oklahoma primary on Super Tuesday.
He told CNN he is making an endorsement today because "I've been trying to be sure in my mind it's over, which it now looks like it is to me."
Holmes insisted the Democratic party needs to have a nominee in place "so we can get on with McCain and not each other."
He said he had spoken with Obama over the phone earlier in the day, but he has not yet informed the senator of his final decision.
Note that the Obama folks are just passing along a news story, which they sort of had to do once it broke. The flow of press releases seems to be slowing down -- makes sense since Obama's clearly got it in the bag now.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 3:26 P.M. PACIFIC: If you're going to have someone on your side, you'd like it to be someone as ridiculously intelligent and well-qualified as Obama's latest superdelegate endorser seems to be. From the latest Obama press release:
Maryland superdelegate and DNC AAPI Caucus Chair Belkis (Bel) Leong-Hong announced today that she is endorsing Barack Obama for President. She released the following statement today:
I'm endorsing Barack Obama today because I believe he is the strongest candidate for the Asian-American and Pacific Islander community and he understands that it's time for AAPI issues--immigration, education, and small business policy, for example--to be discussed on the national stage. And as someone who has lived in AAPI and international communities, I know he shares our unwavering belief in America as a land of prosperity and opportunity for all.
Obama has shown a remarkable ability to bring people together, and I know that Democrats will unite behind him to take on John McCain and stand up for a new direction for this country.I look forward to working with Senator Obama and his campaign to actively engage our Asian American and Pacific Islander community in the general election. Our community is actively participating in this exciting election and will be a critical, swing-vote constituency contributing to a historic democratic victory in November."
Bel Leong-Hong retired from the Department of Defense in 1999 as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I)/ Planning and Resources after 30 years of service. She also held the position of the second in command of the Defense Security Service (DSS), as its Principal Deputy Director and CIO.
Leong-Hong is the Founder, President, and CEO of Knowledge Advantage Inc., a woman-owned company specializing in delivery of information technology and knowledge management serving some of the most well-respected companies and organizations in the D.C. area. Bel is a mathematician and computer scientist by training.
Sorry to include such a long quote, but geez - if a party with people like Leong-Hong in it can't win in November, who can?
Also, the Obama press office tells me that somehow I didn't receive an email announcing three Delaware superdelegates for Obama. Per their numbers, he's now ten delegates short of the nomination - and today's primary results aren't even in yet. Q.E.D.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 3:10 P.M. PACIFIC: Kansas Rep. Dennis Moore endorses Obama. The Obama press release lets an Associated Press wire story do some of its arm-twisting (and break the news to Clinton):
Rep. Nancy Boyda, Kansas' other Democratic U.S. House member, says she will remain uncommitted.
Obama easily defeated Clinton in Kansas' Democratic caucuses in February.
Obama has effectively clinched his party's nomination based on an Associated Press tally of public commitments from delegates and more than a dozen private commitments.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 2:36 P.M. PACIFIC: (My fingers... cramping... editors won't let me leave... computer... send Scotch...)
OK, seriously: California's influential Congresswoman Maxine Waters is switching her superdelegate vote from Clinton to Obama. This leaves him 15 shy of the nomination - and remember, there should be at least that many from the two primaries today. In my book, he's made it as of right now. From the latest Obama press release:
Today, Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA) endorsed Barack Obama for President. Waters switched her endorsement from Clinton to Obama citing his ability to unite the country and leadership on issues such as the housing crisis and war in Iraq.
Throughout this primary election, I have witnessed two extraordinary candidates champion the concerns that matter most to the American people. As an outspoken advocate on issues critical to women and children, I have great admiration for Senator Clinton and know first-hand her commitment to our country.
However, our nation is at [sic] crossroads. Now is the time for us to unite so that real change is possible in November.
The Obama press release also touts Waters' (impressive) credentials to show what a coup this is:
Recognized as a national leader on issues of HIV AIDS, debt relief, housing and the Iraq war, Congresswoman Waters is serving her ninth term representing the 35th District of California. She is a member of the House Committee on Financial Services and the Chairwoman of its Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity. She also serves on the Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit, the Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations, and the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Trade, Technology. Additionally, she serves on the Committee on the Judiciary and its Subcommittees on Crime, Terrorism, and Homeland Security, and on Immigration, Border Security. Waters also serves as House Deputy Whip.
This is an important development, because it's not a sign of disloyalty to Clinton - it's a sign that the superdelegates at long last are doing what all people with superpowers are supposed to do: use their powers for good instead of evil, to consolidate behind the likely nominee. Waters isn't dissing Clinton; she's merely ensuring that there's no doubt about Obama. My fondest wish? That other Clinton delegates (supers and even pledged) start making a similar shift to give Obama an undisputed 2,210 - the number that would have given him the nomination even if Florida and Michigan were given full votes last Saturday instead of half votes -- to give him the undisputed title (and terminate any remaining talk of appeals to the Credentials Committee and Convention Floor). THAT would show unity. So kudos to Waters; may she only be the first.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 2:31 P.M. PACIFIC: Obama press release, Florida again:
Today, Florida superdelegate and Democratic National Committee Member Diane Glasser endorsed Barack Obama.
Obama is 16 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.
Glasser said, "It is time for our Party and our country to come together and reach closure in this process. It is time to move on and elect a president who will take on John McCain and win in the fall. Senator Obama is the leader in delegates and we need to rise to this moment and move forward toward victory in November."
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 2:15 P.M. PACIFIC: Yep, the constriction got released somehow and the gusher's back on. Obama press release: California DNC member Kamil Hassan endorses, and pitches to Asian voters - the first argument I've seen from the Obama camp all day that proactively woos general election voters instead of trying to undo harm done in the extended primary:
I am looking forward to continue to energize the Indo-American and the South-Asian communities in ensuring that Senator Obama becomes the next President of the United States. His election as the President of the United States will not only help unite a very divided nation, but elevate the image of the United States in the world to a level not seen since John Kennedy was the President."
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 2:09 P.M. PACIFIC: Obama press release:
CHICAGO, IL--The Obama Campaign today announced that the following delegates pledged to former Senator John Edwards have committed to vote for Senator Obama at the Democratic National Convention. With today's announcement, every delegate pledged to Senator Edwards in Iowa (four delegates), New Hampshire (four delegates) and South Carolina (eight delegates) will be voting for Senator Obama at the National Convention. In addition, 10 of the 13 Edwards delegates from Florida will be voting for Senator Obama at the National Convention.
The updated roster adds ten delegates today to Obama's delegate total, raising it to 2,099.5 and leaving the campaign only 18.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination at 2,118.
Followed by a list of names. If you're wondering why 4 + 4 + 8 = 10, remember Florida's delegates are half-strength.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 1:53 P.M. PACIFIC: A big one for Obama: Bob Graham, a former Florida Governor and Senator. Again, the Michigan and Florida theme, healing the rift. (Some other superdelegates say they aren't being pestered by the Obama campaign; he's carefully picking which ones to solicit and announce today.)
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 1:41 P.M. PACIFIC: And another from Obama, again from Michigan (see a trend?), with the endorsement of Tina Abbott, Secretary-Treasurer of the Michigan AFL-CIO and Vice Chair of the Michigan Democratic Party. The Obama camp's math: 27.5 delegates to go. Contains a pitch to manufacturing states (are you listening, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania?):
Abbott said, "I am endorsing Senator Obama because he has spent his career standing up for working families. He has a plan to protect American workers and their families, and retool our manufacturing base to keep jobs here at home and strengthen our economy. As president, I know that Barack Obama will continue on his commitment to protect American workers' right to organize and he will make universal health care a reality for all our families.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 1:32 P.M. PACIFIC: After a two-hour hiatus (were the campaigns talking again?), Obama issues another superdelegate endorsement press release: Carnelia Fondren, vice-chair of the Mississippi Democratic Party. It's a straightforward release, but still sends a message: "Fondren is the fifth Mississippi Democratic superdelegate to commit to Obama; none have gone with Clinton. U.S. Reps. Gene Taylor and Travis Childers remain uncommitted. Mississippi's 33 pledged delegates were awarded proportionally during the March 11 primary. Obama got 20 and Clinton got 13."
Meanwhile, there's news that Jimmy Carter intends to endorse Obama, but not until after the polls close tonight (and jeez, what a system when someone can say what they're going to say and it's not the same thing as them saying it!). Carter's endorsement isn't a surprise - he's hinted at it previously - but it's important nevertheless, because it suggests that Carter - who, as the last living Democratic President who remains a statesman instead of pillaging his own legacy, didn't want to influence others' decisions - considers the race over.UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 11:47 A.M. PACIFIC: Another Obama press release: DNC member "and rural issues advocate" from Chicopee, Mass. endorses Obama. Current count per his campaign: "30.5 to go."
I've written about the efforts Obama's making today to highlight support from MI/FL delegates. Another demographic he's been estranged from - thanks both to his own gaffe in San Francisco and Clinton's strenuous efforts to exploit it - is rural voters. (When she and Bill separately toured my home state, Oregon, before its primary, it was almost funny how carefully they stayed away from urban areas: it was Southern Oregon, far Eastern Oregon, Central Oregon, the Oregon Coast, not hitting the state's Willamette Valley population centers - Eugene, Salem, Portland and suburbs - until the very end. And she called for not one but two debates in Oregon, one to talk only about "rural issues.") So this press release starts working to repair that damage, as well:
Kozikowski, a resident of Western Massachusetts, an original co-founder of RuralVotes, has been a strong voice in the Democratic Party in support of rural issues and recognizing the importance of organizing rural voters.
"I made a commitment to wait until the end of the primary process and now it is time to make my choice. Barack Obama has won my support for President. Hillary Clinton ran a great race, I respect her hard work and commitment to the issues I care about, but Senator Obama's message of bringing our country together is in sync with the agenda of building rural-urban partnerships for the good of all of America.
"I care about issues facing rural families and businesses, everything from our food supply to the challenges of economic development, and Barack Obama is committed to ensuring that rural residents aren't left behind. All you have to do is compare the websites of John McCain and Barack Obama to see who is the candidate with real ideas to help rural communities."
Notice how much energy Obama's spending to repair damage largely caused him by Clinton's campaign strategies? Instead of rolling out superdelegate endorsements from Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, and Colorado, and advancing his game against McCain, he's forced to do damage control in Michigan, Florida, and with rural voters. There's a significant opportunity cost here, even as things finally wind down - and even though I want the internecine divides to start healing a.s.a.p., it's hard to resist wagging a finger at Clinton. All eyes are on the Democrats today - and (most recently with her adamant announcement earlier that she's NOT conceding tonight), he's still being forced to waste momentum overcoming her ego instead of gaining ground in the only race that really matters.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 10:40 A.M. PACIFIC: Obama press release: Ohio House Democratic Leader Joyce Beatty and Maine DNC member Jennifer Dechant endorse Obama; 31.5 away.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 10:38 A.M. PACIFIC: The Associated Press is now reporting that a sufficient number of superdelegates have privately reported their endorsements to give Obama the nomination. Officially, though, the Obama campaign still stands at 33.5 short of that goal.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 10:19 A.M. PACIFIC: For a change of pace, and to give an example of how easy John McCain has had it while the Democrats have battled it out, here's a press release just issued by the McCain campaign:
For Immediate Release:
ARLINGTON, VA -- U.S. Senator John McCain's presidential campaign announced that John McCain visited Blue Plate Cafe today in Memphis, Tennessee.
The McCain press office stopped short of reviewing the Cafe's dessert carousel ("Senator McCain felt the strawberry pie was a little too tart, though the rhubarb's consistency was perfect") - but it's pretty close. This is why so many folks are saying it's critical to pivot a.s.a.p. and start the real, "Democrats vs Republicans" race.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 9:56 A.M. PACIFIC: Not sure about the math here - says 3, while I count 4 - but the latest Obama press release announces a passel more delegates for Obama, and Pelosi on deck:
Politico: 3 more delegates for Obama (33.5 from Nomination)
"On a conference call announcing his own endorsement, Rep. James Clyburn names three more undecided officials who, he says, will endorse Obama today:
They're Rep. John Spratt of South Carolina; New York superdelegate Ralph Dawson, and Tim Moore, a South Carolina Edwards delegate.
He said he'd spoken to Nancy Pelosi.
"She will be making her own announcement on that subject tomorrow...or the next day," he said.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 9:15 A.M. PACIFIC: Obama's hammering away in light of the Clinton press release flatly denying a possible concession tonight. Two more important Michiganders for Obama, and big ones - and a release that's really working hard to stitch up the MI/FL wounds and regain women who see misogyny in Clinton's defeat:
Chicago, IL - Today, two Michigan superdelegates endorsed Barack Obama. DNC Members Debbie Dingell and Rick Wiener backed Obama today. Earlier this morning, Michigan superdelegate Joyce Lalonde also backed Barack Obama.
Obama is 35.5 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.
Debbie Dingell said, "Senator Levin, Governor Granholm and other Michigan leaders have fought hard to change the Presidential nominating process to be fairer and more representative of the American electorate. While this election season may have been challenging at times, Michigan has been a significant participant in the fight for real and fundamental change. And because Michigan Democrats have led the fight for significant change, I believe that we should also be leaders in the unity process. That is why today I am joining with Rick Wiener to endorse Barack Obama for President.
Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have run vigorous campaigns, demonstrating to the American people that Democrats are ready to lead on reform for our broken health care system, to protect and create American jobs and to responsibly end the war in Iraq. Now, as the nominating process comes to an end, it is time to unite behind Barack Obama, who will be our Democratic nominee for the White House. Senator Obama has shown me and he has shown the American people that he represents change - a change that this country desperately needs after seven and a half long years of the Bush White House. He will lead our party to victory in November, carrying Michigan for the Democrats by running a campaign focused on bringing change to working families.
I commend Senator Clinton on a well run campaign and while she would have made a terrific President, I know that she will continue to be a tremendous leader in the United States Senate fighting with the same dynamism that we all admire her for.This campaign has often been marginalized in the media, with the focus frequently on race or sex or age. That is not what the campaign is about. This campaign is about the future of the United States."
Rick Wiener said, "We have had many outstanding candidates. It is clear that Senator Obama will prevail as our nominee. It is time to unite as a party behind our candidate and close a historic primary season."
Anyone else notice Dingell's comment firmly pointing Hillary back to her old job in the Senate?
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 8:59 A.M. PACIFIC: And another from Obama - a biggie:
Chicago, IL - Today, United States Congresswoman Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (MI-13) endorsed Barack Obama.
Obama is 36.5 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.
That's an influential Michigan Congresswoman, continuing Obama's "yes, I have support in Michigan and Florida" theme.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 8:41 A.M. PACIFIC: And indeed, Obama's gloves are off: Obama camp issues a press release quoting a story from the Springfield (Mass.) Republican, indicating that Massachusetts Rep. John W. Olver, D-Amherst, endorses Obama. Great line from Olver:
"Hillary was all about competence and experience," Olver said, but added that he was critical of her vote to allow the U.S. invasion into Iraq and that her experience was largely due to her role as First Lady and not through executive experience.
"I though Barack made a good case for himself in his presentation," Olver said. "He does a wonderful speech and really inspires people. The last several years have been really a bummer."
"A bummer?" No s**t. The Massachusetts paper's piece also includes some good stuff for Obama as he tries to win back Clinton's base:
His wife, Rose, who is the chairwoman of women studies at Amherst College, and his daughter, Martha, both support Obama....
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 8:23 A.M. PACIFIC: In a speedy response to an A.P. story 15 minutes earlier reporting that Clinton will, indeed, concede tonight, the Clinton camp issues a terse denial:
The AP story is incorrect. Senator Clinton will not concede the nomination this evening.
Some staffer's in big trouble. And no concession tonight; Obama definitely will pile on the endorsements today - partly to rack up a decisive and insurmountable enough win that he might be able to rebuff Clinton's behind-the-scenes demands for the running mate slot.
An Absentee Ballot in SD: "From her hospice bed six weeks ago, 88-year-old Florence Steen marked an absentee ballot for Clinton, fulfilling a life-long dream for a woman born in 1920, months before federal law guaranteed women the right to vote. When Steen died ... her vote went with her ... [Steen's] dying wish will be multiplied many times in the official vote tally by people who intend to vote or have already filled out absentee ballots for Clinton, with Florence Steen in mind ... The first of those votes was the most meaningful. It came from Steen's husband ... He decided to do something he hadn't done in years: He voted -- also by absentee ballot -- for Clinton." Read more
And even here at the end, she's still pushing her "I've won the popular vote" argument (gunning now not for superdelegates but for the running mate slot):
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 7:32 A.M. PACIFIC: The Clinton campaign just issued its daily "HUBdate" email, pre-spinning the day's news. It reminds reporters of the superdelegate endorsements she won yesterday, which suggests to me that she doesn't have a lot of them banked to roll out today. It also tells one of those sincere, heartstrings-tugging stories that have become such staples of stump speeches and State-of-the-Unions, drawn from a Rapid City newspaper:
Leading the Popular Vote: According to Real Clear Politics, Hillary's popular vote lead over Sen. Obama has grown with her Puerto victory. She has won 17,916,763 votes compared to 17,723,200 for Sen. Obama when every state that has already voted is included in the tally. Read more.
What's funny is that while RCP slices and dices the numbers several different ways, some benefiting Clinton, some Obama, I don't see the specific numbers Clinton cites - 17,916,763 and 17,723,200 - anywhere on the link Clinton provides.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 4:54 A.M. PACIFIC: Another before-business-hours dispatch from Obama, this one from Missouri, citing the local (and one of the historically great - Joseph Pulitzer's flagship) papers in the header: "Post-Dispatch: Mo. superdelegate endorses Obama." The superdelegate is State Rep. Maria Chappelle-Nadal.
This is another tactically useful endorsement, from someone young (33, "the state's youngest superdelegate"), female, from a place that sounds young (University City, MO), in a state that Obama won only narrowly. And it gives a gentle nudge to all fence-sitters, superdelegates and voters alike:
Chappelle-Nadal, 33, has been among six Missouri superdelegates who've remained neutral in the combative contest between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. The state's other 10 superdelegates earlier had split 5-5 between the two.
Last weekend, Chappelle-Nadal said she received more than 500 e-mails from supporters of Obama or Clinton.
She said she privately had shifted between Clinton and Obama for months. But in the end, the deciding factor was the enthusiasm that Obama has generated among young people and unaligned independents, said Chappelle-Nadal.
And am I right in thinking this next bit is a not-so-subtle kick in the butt for the supers who are dragging their heels? Or is Obama kindly pointing out to Clinton who her loyalists are?:
The remaining uncommitted Missouri superdelegates include state Attorney General Jay Nixon, who is running for governor, and Secretary of State Robin Carnahan.
The New York Times, by the way, has a good update this morning on the "is Clinton conceding?" rumors. Their conclusion: yes, but not quite yet, and while he's still trying to get supers to announce, she's asking them to hold off - until tomorrow, "in deference to Mrs. Clinton." (Why would tomorrow be different than today? Strange.)
The Times piece does say that Obama will be rolling out endorsements as fast as he can get them today, to show that the party is falling in behind them - and that at least some Clinton superdelegates, who want to show their support and respect for her, are holding off for now but will jump ship if she doesn't bow out by the end of the week. I don't get any sense of "pushback" from the Clinton folks on this. It really does look like the end; we're just watching pruriently to see how it unfolds.
UPDATE, JUNE 3, 2008, 3:56 A.M. PACIFIC: Before business hours this morning - even on the East Coast, let alone the Midwest where the Obama campaign is headquartered - the Obama camp issued another Michigan superdelegate endorsement press release:
Chicago, IL -- Today, Michigan superdelegate Joyce Lalonde endorsed Barack Obama. Lalonde, a member of the NEA and MEA Boards of Directors and political activist announced today that she is pleased to endorse the candidacy of Senator Barack Obama for President of the United States.
Obama needs 41 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination.
Lalonde said, "I find the Senator to be a strong supporter of public education. His education platform gives great hope to the children of the United States that every child is entitled to a quality public education. I applaud Senator Obama's endorsement of creating an educational system that puts our children first. With his leadership, we will move away from a nation of test bubblers to a nation of highly educated individuals that will return us to global leadership in all areas. I am excited to begin the campaign that brings America to the best that it can be."
Before 7 a.m. E.T.: does Obama have so many endorsements lined up that he needed a head start to get them all out today? Is he giving the Michigan morning shows something to talk about? Was an intern playing with the "send later" function on her email?
In terms of content, I like the term "test bubblers," and the phrase "I am excited to begin the campaign...", which is a nice way to start feeding national news editors and opinion-shapers Obama's preferred "theme o' the day": "the primary's over, the general has begun, and ain't it grand!"
More tea-leaf reading: the issuance of another release, as explained above, suggests that Clinton's concession tonight isn't a done deal. But having slept on it, I've come up with another twist: just as there are some endorsements that Obama doesn't want to issue if it's not necessary (those of supers who are FOBs/FOHs, owe their positions to Bill's patronage, or can't afford to aggravate or offend the Clintons), there also are endorsements that both campaigns do want to issue before the primary campaign is over. For Clinton, that's all of them: whoever she's got in her pocket, she'll want to trot out today, to end on a high note (especially since she's likely to lose these last two states). For Obama, that's any endorsements he has from Michigan and Florida and any other states where he may be struggling and needs the publicity of a high-level endorsement - and, maybe, union endorsements, which reverberate in a world of newsletters, activist circles, and water-cooler talk all their own. Under that analysis, an endorsement like this one from Michigan may mean less in terms of answering the question "does Obama know Clinton's resigning?" than an endorsement from a solidly pro-Obama state might. And Clinton will keep issuing them today - if she's got them - even if she's planning to pull the plug; in fact, from her they may come faster than ever, though that's probably not saying much.
So we get to keep watching, and I call my doctor to refill my OCD medication...
UPDATE, 3:25 P.M. PACIFIC: And here's yet another Obama press release: superdelegate David McDonald, a Seattle attorney and DNC member, has announced he is endorsing Obama. McDonald, who also is one of the Rules & Bylaws Committee members who voted on Saturday, says he didn't want to take sides until after the decision.
I'm interested to have received this press release in light of the news, developing over the course of the day, that Hillary may have decided to suspend her campaign tomorrow evening. (Check out Huff Post's own Tom Edsall, Ben Smith, and several of today's posts on Marc Armbinder.) It's far from certain that she'll do so -- since the elections phase is over tomorrow no matter what her future plans are, it makes sense for "campaign trail" staff to be instructed to return to home base and submit their last expense vouchers -- but it's a real enough possibility to be taken seriously, especially given reports that the two campaigns huddled late last night to work out a deal of some kind. If a deal was really in the works, then the Obama camp might stop issuing "superdelegate endorsement" press releases, both to avoid embarrassing Clinton and as a courtesy to the remaining unannounced superdelegates, who don't want to unnecessarily burn their bridges with the Clintons or their supporters. In fact, the endorsement press releases may be a decent predictor of whether a capitulation is actually imminent: if the flow stops, then a deal may have been cut; if it continues to flow freely, then it's unlikely that anything's been finalized, and Obama needs to keep the pressure on.
The press release announcing McDonald's endorsement came after the news of a possible deal hit the wires and therefore might suggest that Obama's keeping the pressure on and there's no deal. On the other hand, it's sparser than the earlier announcements today: just an email between two Obama staffers, citing an Associated Press "News Break," that was then forwarded to reporters. And, significantly, the release says that McDonald himself already notified the AP of his endorsement. If his endorsement was already out of the bag, then it would be suspicious if the Obama campaign didn't issue the normal press release boasting about it, and they might have issued a brief release just to avoid confirming that something unusual is afoot.
I'd call it a wash and say that this release doesn't militate one way or the other -- except that in my final glance at these tea leaves, I think I see something: there's no update announcing how many delegates Obama still needs. That's unusual. It may simply be that Obama staff haven't been able to reach McDonald yet to confirm the AP piece, and don't want to count their chickens - but I'm more inclined to think they omitted the updated math because they're trying to slack off and give Clinton room. In the end, therefore, I'll say this press release slightly supports the "done deal" theory - but let's wait and see if more endorsements are forthcoming, and how they're phrased.
UPDATE, 12:32 P.M. PACIFIC: Obama press release: "Florida Superdelegate Backs Obama." Text emphasizes the Michigan/Florida angle -- a nice touch, adding Florida to the earlier Michigan endorsements, continuing to counteract Clinton's "Obama's the enemy of MI/FL voters" line of attack. And note how well the Obama press wranglers touch base with several different demographics (including the womym who supposedly belong to Clinton) with a short, deft mention of Murphy's personal story -- woman, single mom (of a daughter), minority -- topping it off with a fairly nuanced reminder of Democrats' duty to start helping Obama. Really well done for a routine missive:
Today, Florida superdelegate and State Party Secretary Janee Murphy endorsed Barack Obama. Murphy is also a DNC member.
Senator Obama is 42.5 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.
"Today I am officially a Florida delegate and I think it is essential now to unite behind Senator Obama to defeat Senator McCain in the fall. I am ready now to pick up the tools that we have been given by coming together and moving forward to secure Florida for the Democrats. With Florida and Michigan a part of the equation that there is no doubt in my mind that we can come together and it is my job now to hit the ground running and help deliver Florida. As a single African American mother, I feel personally about securing a better future for my daughter, and I truly believe Senator Obama will bring the kind of change our country needs."
UPDATE, 11:37 A.M. PACIFIC: Update from CNN.com arrives in my inbox, http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/02/superdelegates/index.html">reporting that most of the 17 undecided Senate superdelegates will be supporting Obama, according to "sources."
UPDATE, 10:34 A.M. PACIFIC: Clinton press release titled "NEW YORK AUTOMATIC DELEGATE ENDORSES HILLARY" (Note: Clinton's and McCain's press releases generally shout; Obama politely uses initial caps.) Text: "Tompkins County Democratic Party Chair and New York automatic delegate Irene Stein announced her support for Hillary Clinton today."
UPDATE, 10:26 A.M. PACIFIC: Obama press release titled "AP -- 2 more Michigan superdelegates endorse Obama." Cites an Associated Press article reporting that Southfield, Michigan Mayor Brenda Lawrence and Michigan Education Association President Lu Battaglieri have endorsed Obama; throws a subtle jab at Clinton for her self-declared role as the champion and favorite of Michigan's voters in the recent seating dispute ("That gives Obama seven Michigan superdelegates, tying the number rival Hillary Rodham Clinton has in the state"); and updates the totals: " Obama now needs 43 delegates for the nomination."
(A couple of notes about this release. First, note that these two endorsements put the new figure to reach at 43, not 42. Why? Because per Saturday's RBC decision, Michigan and Florida delegates get 1/2 vote each (which, for folks still steaming over that, was the penalty specified in the DNC's written rules for states holding primaries too soon, long before Clinton or Obama even announced their candidacies). More importantly, notice Obama's clever strategy here: by announcing Michigan endorsements, he not only underscores the fact that he does have support in that state, but also discourages Clinton from coming out too strongly with a post-RBC "give them full votes!" publicity campaign -- because if these superdelegates were given full votes, Clinton would be even farther behind.)
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Original post, June 2, 2008, 10:05 A.M. Pacific: For several months, both Democratic campaigns have issued regular press releases and held press conference calls to count down how many delegates away they are from clinching the nomination and to announce superdelegate endorsements. That trickle is about to become a gush, if not a flood; this post will stay "live" to keep you up to date as Obama counts down and the campaigns spinspinspin their way to Obama's almost-certain crossing of the newest delegate-count finish line -- the 2,118 delegates set by the DNC Rules & Bylaws Committee Saturday -- sometime tomorrow night.
Obama was careful not to appear presumptuous (and inflame Clinton supporters) by declaring victory when he passed the majority of elected delegates back on May 21, but now (with the RBC ruling behind him and a majority of total delegates, not just pledged delegates, in his grasp), Obama is poised to announce victory as soon as he reaches 2,118 whether Clinton concedes the nomination or not. (Obama aide Anita Dunn: "He's not going to wait by the phone like a high-school girl waiting for a date.") About 200 superdelegates remain uncommitted, but Obama is rumored to have enough of their endorsements "banked" to guarantee he can reach the magic number in time for a big rally tomorrow night in St. Paul, Minnesota. Regardless of timing, he's close -- so close that we can expect to see a series of announcements issue from his campaign, New Year's Eve broadcast-style, as it counts up to the magic number.
On her end, Clinton can't afford to match Obama endorsement-by-endorsement -- she doesn't have enough; the ratio over the last 20 or so endorsements has been over 5:1 Obama -- but she can't let Obama's announcements go uncontested, either. So she'll announce one of her own "banked" endorsements from time to time to put a bump in Obama's path and might announce some endorsements by influential Democrats (without mentioning that they're not actually superdelegates). Her goal can't be to pretend that things are even -- they're not; Obama's way ahead, and Clinton herself is admitting privately that Obama will end the primary season with at least a 100-delegate lead. Her strategy is more to keep portraying this as a me-against-you race, the kind with two runners -- "he gets some, I get some, but we're both still on the same racetrack" -- while Obama will portray it as more of a solitary time trial in which he's competing against the clock, not against another person -- "I'm 46 delegates from the goal line; who's this Hillary person you keep talking about?"
Here's where the race stands as I first write this: As of late yesterday, the Obama campaign said he had 2,072 delegates, leaving him 46 shy of the nomination. The last two elections -- South Dakota and Montana -- are tomorrow; he should win at least half of the 31 pledged delegates at stake there. The balance will come from superdelegate endorsements. Early this morning, Obama issued press releases announcing two more superdelegate endorsements: one from Jerome Wiley Segovia, a DNC member from Virginia, and another from Nancy DiNardo, the Connecticut state party chairwoman. In response, the Clinton campaign announced that she has been endorsed by Chris Whittington, the Louisiana state party chair. So, at this point, Obama's 44 delegates away. Let's watch the countdown, and the spin, unfold: