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There is an excellent chance that when Republicans look back at the 2016 presidential election, this will be the week they'll point to when Donald Trump completely collapsed.
It's time to take a look at the presidential race once again, and I have to begin with a program note. Up until now, I've been writing these columns every two weeks, but from now until the election, they'll appear each Monday like clockwork, since the race is about to head into the homestretch.
Hillary Clinton's lead in the race for Electoral College votes is shrinking. In fact, it has been shrinking for a solid month now. Two weeks ago, this hadn't really benefited Donald Trump much. Now, however, Trump seems to be surging in the polls while Hillary slides even further.
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As things stand, Clinton still has a healthy 58 percent of the total, while Trump has 37 percent. In two weeks, Clinton has lost eight points while Trump gained three points. The extra five points is now in the tied category.
Hillary Clinton wins with a landslide of votes in the Electoral College. Clinton's percent of the total is 66.5, roughly twice Trump's 33.5 percent. Currently, no states are tied.
President Obama just had a very good month in the polls. Not spectacular, mind you, but still better than any month since January of 2015. Essentially, Obama regained the job approval polling ground he lost over the previous two or three months.
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What July will bring is anyone's guess, in other words. Obama wound up down for the month when the monthly averages were calculated, but they could very easily go right back up again in July.
Barack Obama's job approval polling numbers, at times, seem to follow seasonal trends. He usually loses ground in the summer, particularly in August. In winter, however, he usually gains ground. This year Obama seems likely to repeat this pattern, if December's numbers are any indication.
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Obama has gained back all the ground he had lost and then some (well, "and then a little bit more" would be more accurate...). He still hasn't quite made it back to where his poll numbers were before the Obamacare website rollout, but if the trendlines continue in May, he is at least within reach of this goal for the first time since October.
President Obama's job approval polling was down a bit last month, ending three months of positive news. He didn't slip back much, but the reversal does bring up a serious question: is Obama stuck in a "new normal" of job approval numbers in the low-40s range?
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President Obama lost almost all the ground he had gained late in the 2012 election season. He hit a new low in approval and a new high in disapproval for his second term, as the honeymoon bounce completely evaporated.
Obama is currently enjoying not only a vacation with his family in Hawai'i, but also a "second honeymoon" with the public at large. If history is any guide, the fiscal cliff deal could create another wave of approval on top of the "second honeymoon."
Today, we're just going to throw caution to the wind, and go ahead and predict the outcome of tomorrow night's returns.