Political betting markets, which tend to be pretty accurate, put the probability at 61 percent.
Here's why you should care, even though Intrade is now defunct: We media types watch prediction markets closely because they
Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.