Prediction markets
But prediction markets also say a Democrat is most likely to win in November.
Prediction markets react quickly to Donald Trump’s loss.
Political betting markets, which tend to be pretty accurate, put the probability at 61 percent.
But with more than seven months to go and no nominees yet, a lot could change.
WHAT'S HAPPENING
Here's why you should care, even though Intrade is now defunct: We media types watch prediction markets closely because they
Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.
While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.
Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.
Obama's reelection odds on those prediction markets went from 62.5 to 64 percent over the course of the debate. According
PredictWise, a service that aggregates those markets, which themselves aggregate the "wisdom of the crowds," kept a minute