PREDICTION MARKETS

POLITICS
HUFFPOLLSTER: Donald Trump Still Has A Substantial Chance Of Winning The GOP Nomination
By Natalie Jackson, Ariel Edwards-Levy, and Janie Velencia
But prediction markets also say a Democrat is most likely to win in November.
POLITICS
Chances Of A Contested Convention Jump After Ted Cruz's Big Win In Wisconsin
By Natalie Jackson
Prediction markets react quickly to Donald Trump’s loss.
POLITICS
There’s A High Chance Of A Contested Republican Convention
By Natalie Jackson
Political betting markets, which tend to be pretty accurate, put the probability at 61 percent.
POLITICS
HUFFPOLLSTER: Prediction Markets Give Democrats A 72 Percent Chance Of Keeping The White House
By Natalie Jackson, Ariel Edwards-Levy, and Janie Velencia
But with more than seven months to go and no nominees yet, a lot could change.
BUSINESS
One Trader Apparently Lost Millions Boosting Romney On Intrade
By Mark Gongloff
The trader's motive is still a mystery. It seems unlikely that he or she was trying to make a killing on a Romney upset or
POLITICS
Government Goes After Prediction Markets and Research
By David Rothschild, Contributor
Economist at Microsoft Research
Intrade goes to great lengths to transparently define the contracts in their markets for hosts of potential pitfalls: candidate deaths, calling outcomes, etc. The investors in this market are fully aware of what they are trading and the risks associate with that.
POLITICS
Election 2012: The Wisdom of the Crowd
By Leighton Vaughan Williams, Contributor
Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Busin...
While an expert may know more than anyone else in the room, he is unlikely to know more than the room as a whole, to be wiser or cleverer than the crowd.
BUSINESS
Prediction Markets: The Other Big Winners on Election Night
By Leighton Vaughan Williams, Contributor
Director of the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Busin...
Mr. Obama was a big winner on election night. But there were others. Statistical modelling was one such winner, and the other big winners were the prediction markets, which had it right all along.
POLITICS
Obama Reelection Odds Increase In Prediction Markets Following Foreign Policy Debate
By Matt Sledge
Overall, however, PredictWise measures that Obama's odds are down to about where they were before the Republican National
POLITICS
Obama Reelection Odds Jump In Prediction Markets After Second Debate
By Matt Sledge
NEW YORK -- After a confident debate performance on Tuesday night, President Barack Obama's chances of getting reelected
POLITICS
Joe Biden Debate Performance Gives Obama Minor Bump In Prediction Markets
By Matt Sledge
The effect was decidedly minor. According to PredictWise, which aggregates Intrade and other online betting markets, Obama
BUSINESS
Wall Street May Hate Obama, But It's Betting On His Victory
By Mark Gongloff
Wall Streeters may not want President Obama to get reelected, but that is not going to stop them from trying to make money
BUSINESS
On Health Care, Intrade Again Disproves The Wisdom Of Traders, Crowds
By Mark Gongloff
And Intrade specifically has gotten many, many calls wrong, Barry Ritholtz reminds us, from Howard Dean's primary loss to
POLITICS
Gamblers' Election-Forecasting Prowess and How They're Betting on the 2010 Races
By Keith Thomson, Contributor
New York Times Bestselling Novelist
A professional horseplayer once told me that compared to handicapping horse races, elections were a cakewalk. "Polls can be inaccurate," he said. "Gamblers are accurate or they lose." There's considerable evidence he was on the money.
BUSINESS
How Brokers Became Bookies: The Insidious Transformation of Markets Into Casinos
By Ellen Brown, Contributor
Ellen Brown is an attorney, Founder of the Public Banking Inst...
Casinos for betting on what something will do in the future have been elevated to the status of "prediction" markets, and they can cover a broad range of issues
POLITICS
AAPOR2009: Christopher Wlezien
By Mark Blumenthal, Contributor
Head of Election Polling at SurveyMonkey
Yesterday, I also interviewed to Temple University Professor Christopher Wlezien, who long-time Pollster readers may remember
BUSINESS
Who's Afraid of the Big Bad Dow?
By Max Keiser, Contributor
Host of Keiser Report on RT
That's right, Americans are mad as hell and they aren't going to take it anymore.
POLITICS
HuffPost's Real Time Election Trading Odds
By Katharine Zaleski
Trading Markets Swing to Obama! Bookmark this map! Updated hourly until election day.
BUSINESS
Market Says McCain is Bonkers, Not Bold
By Max Keiser, Contributor
Host of Keiser Report on RT
Is McCain experiencing a mere wave of panic selling? Can he rebound from 44? Time will tell, but so far traders don't seem to be buying McCain on this dip.
BUSINESS
October Surprise? How Are InTrade's Investors Positioning For an Osama Capture
By Max Keiser, Contributor
Host of Keiser Report on RT
Every time I turn on the news I see something going down at the Afghan-Pakistan border, so I'm thinking the October 2008 Surprise might just be a big one.
BUSINESS
Huffpost Bloggers Team up to Bring "The Oracle" Prediction Markets Show to BBC World News
By Max Keiser, Contributor
Host of Keiser Report on RT
The economic and finance predictions I've made over the past few years featured in the films I made for Al Jazeera caught
POLITICS
'Prediction Markets' Indicate Chance of Iran Attack Rising
By Max Keiser, Contributor
Host of Keiser Report on RT
Friday night in Paris, I was talking live to Tehran's Press TV about the betting-contract trading on InTrade.com; laying odds on if Bush, or someone else (Israel?) will Bomb Iran by December.