When Honesty and Social Desirability Collide You are enjoying lighthearted conversation at a weekend BBQ when inevitably
"Do you like Democracy? Or do you want a demagogue?”
Pick already, people.
"Everyone wants to talk to me and ask me questions!"
Depending on which poll you believe, the campaign seems to be about a six or seven point race. And in some key states like Ohio and New Hampshire, it's a lot closer -- too close for comfort.
Yo, Undecided Voters! Are You Listening? Are You Even Listening To Yourselves? Imperfect Choices And The 'Trap Of The Wrong Base Case'
Yo, you undecided voters! Do you hear what you are saying? Sure, you’d be happier if your party had selected another nominee
The relatively small size of the "undecided" category masks much more uncertainty among voters who have a preference between Clinton and Trump, but are not happy with either, and are weighing whether to vote for a third party candidate or perhaps not vote at all.
This isn't about a Democrat versus a Republican. This is about a man who has capitalized on people's fears, anxieties, suspicions, and above all frustration with government to catapult himself to be a major party nominee.
Over the weekend I made a quick trip to Denver. On two separate shared rides, sitting up front for 45 minutes, I had the chance to talk politics with people quite different from me. It reminded me of the value of face-to-face conversation, not making assumptions, and listening without trying to convince.
We knew we couldn't sit on the sidelines. We issued our first-ever primary endorsement because Hillary is a standout leader on reproductive health. And because the challenges facing the people who come to Planned Parenthood health centers were too urgent for us to to "wait and see."
There are many sources of uncertainty in election polling other than sampling error. One source of error that looms large in this year's closest races is undecided voters -- people who say they are going to vote, but don't know (or won't say) which candidate they prefer.